Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Model N, Inc. (MODN)

$24.34

-0.22 (-0.90%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -19.05 | 24.34 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 141.24161.06193.44219.16249.46287.67331.73382.54441.13508.69
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -8.54-1.03-6.65-3.4113.24-3.67-4.23-4.88-5.62-6.48
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -15.33-6.53-14.62-12.405.02-15.02-17.33-19.98-23.04-26.57
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 6.795.507.978.998.2211.3613.1015.1017.4220.09
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Total Cash 60.78200.49165.47193.52301.36265.90306.63353.59407.74470.20
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 26.9535.8043.1949.1261.7663.7573.5184.7797.76112.73
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 2.782.805.246.386.016.757.788.9710.3511.93
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 2.303.014.805.823.895.876.767.808.9910.37
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -0.28-0.58-1.06-0.99-0.45-1-1.15-1.33-1.53-1.77
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 24.34
Beta 0.738
Diluted Shares Outstanding 38.08
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -9.15
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.16%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.642
Total Debt 291.52
Total Equity 926.89
Total Capital 1,218.41
Debt Weighting 23.93
Equity Weighting 76.07
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 141.24161.06193.44219.16249.46287.67331.73382.54441.13508.69
EBITDA -8.54-1.03-6.65-3.4113.24-3.67-4.23-4.88-5.62-6.48
EBIT -15.33-6.53-14.62-12.405.02-15.02-17.33-19.98-23.04-26.57
Tax Rate -5.64%-6.32%-2.65%-5.43%-9.15%-5.84%-5.84%-5.84%-5.84%-5.84%
EBIAT -16.19-6.94-15.01-13.075.48-15.90-18.34-21.15-24.38-28.12
Depreciation 6.795.507.978.998.2211.3613.1015.1017.4220.09
Accounts Receivable --8.84-7.39-5.94-12.64-1.99-9.76-11.26-12.98-14.97
Inventories --0.02-2.44-1.140.36-0.73-1.03-1.19-1.37-1.58
Accounts Payable -0.711.791.02-1.931.980.901.041.191.38
Capital Expenditure -0.28-0.58-1.05-0.99-0.45-1-1.15-1.33-1.53-1.77
UFCF -9.68-10.18-16.13-11.13-0.96-6.29-16.29-18.79-21.66-24.98
WACC
PV UFCF -5.89-14.28-15.42-16.64-17.97
SUM PV UFCF -70.20

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.81
Free cash flow (t + 1) -25.98
Terminal Value -924.53
Present Value of Terminal Value -665.06

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -735.26
Net Debt -9.83
Equity Value -725.42
Shares Outstanding 38.08
Equity Value Per Share -19.05