Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Mogo Inc. (MOGO)
$0.85
-0.02 (-2.33%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 48.68 | 61.28 | 59.81 | 44.25 | 57.52 | 61.47 | 65.69 | 70.19 | 75.01 | 80.16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | -1.56 | 2.43 | 17.01 | 8.30 | -11.50 | 3.44 | 3.67 | 3.92 | 4.19 | 4.48 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | -5.05 | -4.63 | 8.96 | -0.12 | -24.24 | -5.58 | -5.96 | -6.37 | -6.80 | -7.27 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 3.49 | 7.06 | 8.05 | 8.41 | 12.74 | 9.01 | 9.63 | 10.29 | 11 | 11.75 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 40.56 | 20.44 | 10.42 | 12.12 | 69.21 | 34.64 | 37.02 | 39.56 | 42.28 | 45.18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 73.80 | 86.35 | 88.65 | 47.23 | 61.22 | 80.39 | 85.91 | 91.81 | 98.11 | 104.84 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | - | 9.65 | 7.13 | 3.29 | 4.96 | 6.72 | 7.18 | 7.67 | 8.20 | 8.76 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -5.42 | -11.05 | -9.09 | -4.82 | -9.22 | -8.76 | -9.36 | -10.01 | -10.69 | -11.43 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 0.85 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 3.504 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 63.01 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 0.69 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 10.30% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 20.070 |
| Total Debt | 88.72 |
| Total Equity | 53.55 |
| Total Capital | 142.28 |
| Debt Weighting | 62.36 |
| Equity Weighting | 37.64 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 48.68 | 61.28 | 59.81 | 44.25 | 57.52 | 61.47 | 65.69 | 70.19 | 75.01 | 80.16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | -1.56 | 2.43 | 17.01 | 8.30 | -11.50 | 3.44 | 3.67 | 3.92 | 4.19 | 4.48 |
| EBIT | -5.05 | -4.63 | 8.96 | -0.12 | -24.24 | -5.58 | -5.96 | -6.37 | -6.80 | -7.27 |
| Tax Rate | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.69% | 0.14% | 0.14% | 0.14% | 0.14% | 0.14% |
| EBIAT | -5.05 | -4.63 | 8.96 | -0.12 | -24.07 | -5.57 | -5.95 | -6.36 | -6.79 | -7.26 |
| Depreciation | 3.49 | 7.06 | 8.05 | 8.41 | 12.74 | 9.01 | 9.63 | 10.29 | 11 | 11.75 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -12.54 | -2.31 | 41.43 | -13.99 | -19.17 | -5.52 | -5.90 | -6.30 | -6.73 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | - | -2.52 | -3.84 | 1.67 | 1.76 | 0.46 | 0.49 | 0.53 | 0.56 |
| Capital Expenditure | -5.42 | -11.05 | -9.09 | -4.82 | -9.22 | -8.76 | -9.36 | -10.01 | -10.69 | -11.43 |
| UFCF | -6.98 | -21.17 | 3.10 | 41.07 | -32.88 | -22.73 | -10.74 | -11.48 | -12.27 | -13.11 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -19.94 | -8.27 | -7.75 | -7.27 | -6.81 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -50.04 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 13.98 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -13.37 |
| Terminal Value | -111.60 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -58.01 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -108.05 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 19.52 |
| Equity Value | -127.57 |
| Shares Outstanding | 63.01 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -2.02 |