Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Mogo Inc. (MOGO)

$0.85

-0.02 (-2.33%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -2.02 | 0.85 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 48.6861.2859.8144.2557.5261.4765.6970.1975.0180.16
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -1.562.4317.018.30-11.503.443.673.924.194.48
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -5.05-4.638.96-0.12-24.24-5.58-5.96-6.37-6.80-7.27
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 3.497.068.058.4112.749.019.6310.291111.75
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 40.5620.4410.4212.1269.2134.6437.0239.5642.2845.18
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 73.8086.3588.6547.2361.2280.3985.9191.8198.11104.84
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable -9.657.133.294.966.727.187.678.208.76
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -5.42-11.05-9.09-4.82-9.22-8.76-9.36-10.01-10.69-11.43
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 0.85
Beta 3.504
Diluted Shares Outstanding 63.01
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 0.69
After-tax Cost of Debt 10.30%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 20.070
Total Debt 88.72
Total Equity 53.55
Total Capital 142.28
Debt Weighting 62.36
Equity Weighting 37.64
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 48.6861.2859.8144.2557.5261.4765.6970.1975.0180.16
EBITDA -1.562.4317.018.30-11.503.443.673.924.194.48
EBIT -5.05-4.638.96-0.12-24.24-5.58-5.96-6.37-6.80-7.27
Tax Rate 0.01%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.69%0.14%0.14%0.14%0.14%0.14%
EBIAT -5.05-4.638.96-0.12-24.07-5.57-5.95-6.36-6.79-7.26
Depreciation 3.497.068.058.4112.749.019.6310.291111.75
Accounts Receivable --12.54-2.3141.43-13.99-19.17-5.52-5.90-6.30-6.73
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable ---2.52-3.841.671.760.460.490.530.56
Capital Expenditure -5.42-11.05-9.09-4.82-9.22-8.76-9.36-10.01-10.69-11.43
UFCF -6.98-21.173.1041.07-32.88-22.73-10.74-11.48-12.27-13.11
WACC
PV UFCF -19.94-8.27-7.75-7.27-6.81
SUM PV UFCF -50.04

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 13.98
Free cash flow (t + 1) -13.37
Terminal Value -111.60
Present Value of Terminal Value -58.01

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -108.05
Net Debt 19.52
Equity Value -127.57
Shares Outstanding 63.01
Equity Value Per Share -2.02