Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
ECMOHO Limited (MOHO)
$0.0999
-0.07 (-%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 98.24 | 199.02 | 329.48 | 304.94 | 130.75 | 164.60 | 207.22 | 260.87 | 328.42 | 413.45 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 3.63 | 8.07 | 7.78 | -8.31 | -54.51 | -11.29 | -14.22 | -17.90 | -22.53 | -28.37 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 3.12 | 7.47 | 5.15 | -10.66 | -56.69 | -12.63 | -15.90 | -20.02 | -25.20 | -31.72 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 0.51 | 0.61 | 2.63 | 2.34 | 2.19 | 1.34 | 1.68 | 2.12 | 2.67 | 3.36 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 10.69 | 10.34 | 49.10 | 45.28 | 43.62 | 26.07 | 32.82 | 41.32 | 52.02 | 65.48 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 12.51 | 33.90 | 52.18 | 45.41 | 19.21 | 24.75 | 31.16 | 39.23 | 49.39 | 62.18 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 17.37 | 53.68 | 49.89 | 33.26 | 21.82 | 28.77 | 36.22 | 45.60 | 57.40 | 72.26 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 12 | 23.54 | 26.44 | 24.19 | 35.85 | 22.19 | 27.94 | 35.18 | 44.28 | 55.75 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -0.34 | -1.62 | -0.81 | -0.26 | -0.27 | -0.56 | -0.70 | -0.89 | -1.12 | -1.41 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 0.0,999 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.825 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 34.90 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 5.06 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 15.65% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 7.424 |
| Total Debt | 11.49 |
| Total Equity | 3.49 |
| Total Capital | 14.98 |
| Debt Weighting | 76.72 |
| Equity Weighting | 23.28 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 98.24 | 199.02 | 329.48 | 304.94 | 130.75 | 164.60 | 207.22 | 260.87 | 328.42 | 413.45 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 3.63 | 8.07 | 7.78 | -8.31 | -54.51 | -11.29 | -14.22 | -17.90 | -22.53 | -28.37 |
| EBIT | 3.12 | 7.47 | 5.15 | -10.66 | -56.69 | -12.63 | -15.90 | -20.02 | -25.20 | -31.72 |
| Tax Rate | -0.76% | 6.75% | -5.13% | 1.43% | 5.06% | 1.47% | 1.47% | 1.47% | 1.47% | 1.47% |
| EBIAT | 3.15 | 6.96 | 5.42 | -10.50 | -53.83 | -12.44 | -15.67 | -19.72 | -24.83 | -31.26 |
| Depreciation | 0.51 | 0.61 | 2.63 | 2.34 | 2.19 | 1.34 | 1.68 | 2.12 | 2.67 | 3.36 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -21.39 | -18.28 | 6.77 | 26.21 | -5.55 | -6.41 | -8.07 | -10.16 | -12.79 |
| Inventories | - | -36.32 | 3.79 | 16.63 | 11.44 | -6.95 | -7.45 | -9.38 | -11.81 | -14.86 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 11.54 | 2.90 | -2.25 | 11.66 | -13.66 | 5.75 | 7.23 | 9.11 | 11.47 |
| Capital Expenditure | -0.34 | -1.62 | -0.81 | -0.26 | -0.27 | -0.56 | -0.70 | -0.89 | -1.12 | -1.41 |
| UFCF | 3.32 | -40.22 | -4.36 | 12.73 | -2.60 | -37.82 | -22.80 | -28.70 | -36.13 | -45.49 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -33.25 | -17.63 | -19.51 | -21.60 | -23.91 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -115.90 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 13.73 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -46.40 |
| Terminal Value | -395.56 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -207.89 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -323.79 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -32.13 |
| Equity Value | -291.66 |
| Shares Outstanding | 34.90 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -8.36 |