Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Morningstar, Inc. (MORN)
$187.88
+4.17 (+2.27%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 1,019.90 | 1,179 | 1,389.50 | 1,699.30 | 1,870.60 | 2,178.45 | 2,536.97 | 2,954.50 | 3,440.73 | 4,006.99 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 331.60 | 326.40 | 433.90 | 417 | 322 | 580.24 | 675.74 | 786.95 | 916.46 | 1,067.29 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 234.90 | 208.70 | 294.40 | 266.30 | 155.40 | 374.26 | 435.85 | 507.58 | 591.11 | 688.40 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 96.70 | 117.70 | 139.50 | 150.70 | 166.60 | 205.99 | 239.89 | 279.37 | 325.35 | 378.89 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 395.90 | 367.50 | 464.20 | 546.10 | 414.60 | 687.07 | 800.14 | 931.83 | 1,085.18 | 1,263.78 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 174 | 194.80 | 207.30 | 277.80 | 307.90 | 354.26 | 412.56 | 480.46 | 559.53 | 651.62 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 54.40 | 58.90 | 71.77 | 87.77 | 96.61 | 112.51 | 131.03 | 152.59 | 177.71 | 206.95 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -76.10 | -80 | -76.70 | -101.80 | -129.50 | -142.39 | -165.82 | -193.11 | -224.89 | -261.90 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 187.88 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.194 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 42.90 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 46.02 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 1.16% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 9.242 |
| Total Debt | 1,323.60 |
| Total Equity | 8,060.05 |
| Total Capital | 9,383.65 |
| Debt Weighting | 14.11 |
| Equity Weighting | 85.89 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 1,019.90 | 1,179 | 1,389.50 | 1,699.30 | 1,870.60 | 2,178.45 | 2,536.97 | 2,954.50 | 3,440.73 | 4,006.99 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 331.60 | 326.40 | 433.90 | 417 | 322 | 580.24 | 675.74 | 786.95 | 916.46 | 1,067.29 |
| EBIT | 234.90 | 208.70 | 294.40 | 266.30 | 155.40 | 374.26 | 435.85 | 507.58 | 591.11 | 688.40 |
| Tax Rate | 21.43% | 23.43% | 20.99% | 22.83% | 46.02% | 26.94% | 26.94% | 26.94% | 26.94% | 26.94% |
| EBIAT | 184.57 | 159.81 | 232.61 | 205.49 | 83.89 | 273.44 | 318.44 | 370.84 | 431.88 | 502.95 |
| Depreciation | 96.70 | 117.70 | 139.50 | 150.70 | 166.60 | 205.99 | 239.89 | 279.37 | 325.35 | 378.89 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -20.80 | -12.50 | -70.50 | -30.10 | -46.36 | -58.30 | -67.90 | -79.07 | -92.08 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | 4.50 | 12.87 | 16 | 8.85 | 15.90 | 18.52 | 21.56 | 25.11 | 29.25 |
| Capital Expenditure | -76.10 | -80 | -76.70 | -101.80 | -129.50 | -142.39 | -165.82 | -193.11 | -224.89 | -261.90 |
| UFCF | 205.17 | 181.21 | 295.77 | 199.89 | 99.73 | 306.58 | 352.72 | 410.77 | 478.37 | 557.10 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 283.61 | 301.84 | 325.18 | 350.32 | 377.40 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 1,638.35 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 8.10 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 568.24 |
| Terminal Value | 9,315.45 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 6,310.67 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 7,949.02 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 947 |
| Equity Value | 7,002.02 |
| Shares Outstanding | 42.90 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 163.22 |