Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
MP Materials Corp. (MP)
$27.76
-0.08 (-0.29%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 73.41 | 134.31 | 331.95 | 527.51 | 1,035.72 | 2,033.53 | 3,992.64 | 7,839.17 | 15,391.45 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | |||||||||
| EBITDA | -3.34 | -27.52 | 193.48 | 365.29 | 265.38 | 521.05 | 1,023.03 | 2,008.62 | 3,943.73 |
| EBITDA (%) | |||||||||
| EBIT | - | - | - | - | 265.38 | 521.05 | 1,023.03 | 2,008.62 | 3,943.73 |
| EBIT (%) | |||||||||
| Depreciation | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 2.76 | 519.65 | 1,179.30 | 1,182.34 | 2,511.76 | 4,931.61 | 9,682.74 | 19,011.13 | 37,326.54 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | |||||||||
| Account Receivables | 0.37 | 3.59 | 51.01 | 35.06 | 65.22 | 128.05 | 251.42 | 493.64 | 969.21 |
| Account Receivables (%) | |||||||||
| Inventories | 23.05 | 32.27 | 38.69 | 57.55 | 201.94 | 396.49 | 778.47 | 1,528.45 | 3,000.96 |
| Inventories (%) | |||||||||
| Accounts Payable | - | - | 35.73 | 72.26 | 126.69 | 248.74 | 488.38 | 958.89 | 1,882.69 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | |||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -2.27 | -22.37 | -123.87 | -326.59 | -308.08 | -604.88 | -1,187.62 | -2,331.79 | -4,578.24 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 27.76 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 2.792 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 193.45 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 15.29 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 0.72% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 16.731 |
| Total Debt | 678.44 |
| Total Equity | 5,370.26 |
| Total Capital | 6,048.70 |
| Debt Weighting | 11.22 |
| Equity Weighting | 88.78 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 73.41 | 134.31 | 331.95 | 527.51 | 1,035.72 | 2,033.53 | 3,992.64 | 7,839.17 | 15,391.45 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | -3.34 | -27.52 | 193.48 | 365.29 | 265.38 | 521.05 | 1,023.03 | 2,008.62 | 3,943.73 |
| EBIT | - | - | - | - | 265.38 | 521.05 | 1,023.03 | 2,008.62 | 3,943.73 |
| Tax Rate | -0.01% | 44.69% | 15.70% | 15.29% | 18.92% | 18.92% | 18.92% | 18.92% | 18.92% |
| EBIAT | - | - | - | - | 215.18 | 422.48 | 829.50 | 1,628.65 | 3,197.70 |
| Depreciation | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -3.22 | -47.42 | 15.95 | -30.16 | -62.83 | -123.37 | -242.22 | -475.57 |
| Inventories | - | -9.22 | -6.42 | -18.86 | -144.39 | -194.55 | -381.98 | -749.98 | -1,472.51 |
| Accounts Payable | - | - | - | 36.53 | 54.42 | 122.05 | 239.64 | 470.51 | 923.80 |
| Capital Expenditure | -2.27 | -22.37 | -123.87 | -326.60 | -308.08 | -604.88 | -1,187.62 | -2,331.79 | -4,578.24 |
| UFCF | - | - | - | - | -213.02 | -317.73 | -623.83 | -1,224.83 | -2,404.83 |
| WACC | |||||||||
| PV UFCF | -213.02 | -276.43 | -472.20 | -806.60 | -1,377.84 | ||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -2,737.16 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 14.94 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -2,452.93 |
| Terminal Value | -18,956.15 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -9,449.18 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -12,186.34 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 541.82 |
| Equity Value | -12,728.16 |
| Shares Outstanding | 193.45 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -65.79 |