Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

MPLX LP (MPLX)

$39

+0.56 (+1.46%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 26.17 | 39 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 8,6258,2469,57510,54110,68111,298.8911,952.5212,643.9613,375.4014,149.15
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 3,5742,4134,0344,9115,5134,768.935,044.815,336.655,645.375,971.95
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 2,3201,0362,7473,6814,3003,238.953,426.333,624.533,834.214,056.02
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 1,2541,3771,2871,2301,2131,529.981,618.481,712.111,811.161,915.93
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Total Cash 1515132381,048283.86300.28317.65336.02355.46
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 1,2401,1251,2941,4618231,425.911,508.401,595.661,687.961,785.61
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 110118142148159160.04169.30179.09189.45200.41
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 242152172224153226.04239.12252.95267.59283.07
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -2,408-1,183-529-806-1,480.29-1,565.92-1,656.51-1,752.34-1,853.71-1,960.94
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 39
Beta 1.341
Diluted Shares Outstanding 1,002
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 1.23
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.46%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.489
Total Debt 20,431
Total Equity 39,078
Total Capital 59,509
Debt Weighting 34.33
Equity Weighting 65.67
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 8,6258,2469,57510,54110,68111,298.8911,952.5212,643.9613,375.4014,149.15
EBITDA 3,5742,4134,0344,9115,5134,768.935,044.815,336.655,645.375,971.95
EBIT 2,3201,0362,7473,6814,3003,238.953,426.333,624.533,834.214,056.02
Tax Rate 29.34%-0.29%1.16%1.05%1.23%6.50%6.50%6.50%6.50%6.50%
EBIAT 1,639.231,039.022,715.233,642.214,247.023,028.463,203.663,388.993,585.043,792.43
Depreciation 1,2541,3771,2871,2301,2131,529.981,618.481,712.111,811.161,915.93
Accounts Receivable -115-169-167638-602.91-82.49-87.26-92.31-97.65
Inventories --8-24-6-11-1.04-9.26-9.79-10.36-10.96
Accounts Payable --902052-7173.0413.0813.8314.6315.48
Capital Expenditure -2,408-1,183-529-806-1,480.29-1,565.92-1,656.51-1,752.34-1,853.71-1,960.94
UFCF 485.231,250.023,300.233,945.214,535.732,461.613,086.963,265.543,454.453,654.29
WACC
PV UFCF 2,270.442,626.112,562.282,500.012,439.25
SUM PV UFCF 12,398.09

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.42
Free cash flow (t + 1) 3,690.83
Terminal Value 49,741.63
Present Value of Terminal Value 33,202.67

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 45,600.76
Net Debt 19,383
Equity Value 26,217.76
Shares Outstanding 1,002
Equity Value Per Share 26.17