Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

MPLX LP (MPLX)

$30.21

+1.38 (+4.79%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 26.07 | 30.21 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 3,6916,0798,6258,2469,57512,406.8716,076.2720,830.9326,991.8134,974.81
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 1,7763,1313,1491,4934,0274,870.836,311.408,178.0410,596.7513,730.80
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 1,0932,3651,8951163,9573,305.714,283.405,550.247,191.769,318.77
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 6837661,2541,377701,565.112,0282,627.803,404.994,412.03
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 56815151343.3256.1372.7394.24122.11
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 4527061,2401,1256541,456.811,887.672,445.963,169.374,106.73
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 6577110118142179.08232.05300.68389.60504.83
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 151162242152172327.58424.46550712.66923.43
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -1,411-1,919-2,408-1,183-529-2,917.74-3,780.68-4,898.84-6,347.71-8,225.08
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 30.21
Beta 1.507
Diluted Shares Outstanding 1,051
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 1.16
After-tax Cost of Debt 56.93%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.818
Total Debt 1,526
Total Equity 31,750.71
Total Capital 33,276.71
Debt Weighting 4.59
Equity Weighting 95.41
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 3,6916,0798,6258,2469,57512,406.8716,076.2720,830.9326,991.8134,974.81
EBITDA 1,7763,1313,1491,4934,0274,870.836,311.408,178.0410,596.7513,730.80
EBIT 1,0932,3651,8951163,9573,305.714,283.405,550.247,191.769,318.77
Tax Rate 5.14%1.30%29.34%-5.11%1.16%6.37%6.37%6.37%6.37%6.37%
EBIAT 1,036.852,334.191,338.94121.933,911.243,095.274,010.715,196.916,733.928,725.52
Depreciation 6837661,2541,377701,565.112,0282,627.803,404.994,412.03
Accounts Receivable --254-534115471-802.81-430.86-558.29-723.41-937.36
Inventories --12-33-8-24-37.08-52.96-68.63-88.93-115.23
Accounts Payable -1180-9020155.5896.88125.54162.66210.77
Capital Expenditure -1,411-1,919-2,408-1,183-529-2,917.74-3,780.68-4,898.84-6,347.71-8,225.08
UFCF 308.85926.19-302.06332.933,919.241,058.321,871.092,424.483,141.534,070.66
WACC
PV UFCF 937.151,467.151,683.411,931.542,216.25
SUM PV UFCF 8,235.50

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 12.93
Free cash flow (t + 1) 4,152.07
Terminal Value 37,987.83
Present Value of Terminal Value 20,682.25

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 28,917.75
Net Debt 1,513
Equity Value 27,404.75
Shares Outstanding 1,051
Equity Value Per Share 26.07