Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. (MPWR)

$741.1

+27.18 (+3.81%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 137.52 | 741.1 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 582.38627.92844.451,207.801,794.152,394.643,196.114,265.835,693.587,599.19
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 117.33107.49174.49274.87542.79531.32709.15946.501,263.281,686.10
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 105.0292.62155.30246.17505.67477.69637.57850.961,135.771,515.90
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 12.3114.8719.1928.7037.1153.6371.5895.54127.52170.20
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 377.28455.40595.11725.08737.871,479.601,974.812,635.773,517.954,695.39
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 55.2152.7066.84104.81182.71213.85285.42380.95508.45678.63
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 136.38127.50157.06259.42447.29520.75695.04927.661,238.151,652.55
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 22.6827.2738.1783.0361.46110.43147.38196.71262.55350.43
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -22.53-96.79-55.64-95.24-58.84-177.37-236.74-315.97-421.73-562.88
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 741.1
Beta 1.223
Diluted Shares Outstanding 47.85
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 16.62
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.17%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.113
Total Debt -
Total Equity 35,463.12
Total Capital 35,463.12
Debt Weighting 0.00
Equity Weighting 100.00
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 582.38627.92844.451,207.801,794.152,394.643,196.114,265.835,693.587,599.19
EBITDA 117.33107.49174.49274.87542.79531.32709.15946.501,263.281,686.10
EBIT 105.0292.62155.30246.17505.67477.69637.57850.961,135.771,515.90
Tax Rate 11.15%3.78%2.93%11.09%16.62%9.12%9.12%9.12%9.12%9.12%
EBIAT 93.3189.12150.75218.86421.61434.13579.44773.371,032.211,377.69
Depreciation 12.3114.8719.1928.7037.1153.6371.5895.54127.52170.20
Accounts Receivable -2.51-14.14-37.97-77.90-31.13-71.57-95.53-127.50-170.18
Inventories -8.88-29.56-102.36-187.87-73.46-174.29-232.62-310.48-414.40
Accounts Payable -4.5910.9044.86-21.5748.9736.9649.3365.8487.87
Capital Expenditure -22.53-96.79-55.64-95.24-58.84-177.37-236.74-315.97-421.73-562.88
UFCF 83.0923.1881.4956.86112.54254.77205.37274.11365.86488.31
WACC
PV UFCF 231.38169.39205.33248.89301.69
SUM PV UFCF 1,156.67

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 10.11
Free cash flow (t + 1) 507.84
Terminal Value 8,311.58
Present Value of Terminal Value 5,135.11

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 6,291.78
Net Debt -288.61
Equity Value 6,580.38
Shares Outstanding 47.85
Equity Value Per Share 137.52