Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Morguard Corporation (MRC.TO)
$102.81
+0.81 (+0.79%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 1,164.18 | 1,175.68 | 1,028.45 | 1,021.91 | 1,120.03 | 1,112.83 | 1,105.68 | 1,098.57 | 1,091.52 | 1,084.50 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 634.69 | 488.35 | 99.14 | 648.98 | 395.45 | 455.17 | 452.25 | 449.34 | 446.45 | 443.58 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 602.83 | 452.20 | 63.85 | 616.48 | 368.94 | 422.25 | 419.54 | 416.84 | 414.16 | 411.50 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 31.86 | 36.15 | 35.29 | 32.50 | 26.51 | 32.92 | 32.71 | 32.50 | 32.29 | 32.08 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 110.40 | 123.17 | 142.09 | 173.66 | 111.81 | 135.21 | 134.34 | 133.48 | 132.62 | 131.77 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 78.56 | 80.59 | 92.92 | 70.16 | 80.16 | 81.59 | 81.07 | 80.55 | 80.03 | 79.52 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 185.92 | 185.90 | 178.83 | 189.99 | 208.41 | 192.23 | 190.99 | 189.77 | 188.55 | 187.34 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -5.92 | -12.66 | -2.14 | -0.68 | -1.66 | -4.47 | -4.44 | -4.41 | -4.38 | -4.36 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 102.81 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.136 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 11.08 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 9.37 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.48% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 9.072 |
| Total Debt | 5,800.21 |
| Total Equity | 1,139.03 |
| Total Capital | 6,939.24 |
| Debt Weighting | 83.59 |
| Equity Weighting | 16.41 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 1,164.18 | 1,175.68 | 1,028.45 | 1,021.91 | 1,120.03 | 1,112.83 | 1,105.68 | 1,098.57 | 1,091.52 | 1,084.50 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 634.69 | 488.35 | 99.14 | 648.98 | 395.45 | 455.17 | 452.25 | 449.34 | 446.45 | 443.58 |
| EBIT | 602.83 | 452.20 | 63.85 | 616.48 | 368.94 | 422.25 | 419.54 | 416.84 | 414.16 | 411.50 |
| Tax Rate | 23.13% | 17.10% | 69.07% | 38.80% | 9.37% | 31.49% | 31.49% | 31.49% | 31.49% | 31.49% |
| EBIAT | 463.43 | 374.89 | 19.75 | 377.29 | 334.38 | 289.28 | 287.42 | 285.57 | 283.74 | 281.91 |
| Depreciation | 31.86 | 36.15 | 35.29 | 32.50 | 26.51 | 32.92 | 32.71 | 32.50 | 32.29 | 32.08 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -2.02 | -12.33 | 22.76 | -10 | -1.44 | 0.52 | 0.52 | 0.52 | 0.51 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | -0.02 | -7.08 | 11.16 | 18.42 | -16.18 | -1.24 | -1.23 | -1.22 | -1.21 |
| Capital Expenditure | -5.92 | -12.66 | -2.14 | -0.68 | -1.66 | -4.47 | -4.44 | -4.41 | -4.38 | -4.36 |
| UFCF | 489.36 | 396.34 | 33.49 | 443.03 | 367.65 | 300.11 | 314.98 | 312.95 | 310.94 | 308.94 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 287.47 | 288.99 | 275.03 | 261.74 | 249.10 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 1,362.32 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 4.40 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 315.12 |
| Terminal Value | 13,130.08 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 10,586.80 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 11,949.13 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 5,688.40 |
| Equity Value | 6,260.72 |
| Shares Outstanding | 11.08 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 565.10 |