Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Mercury Systems, Inc. (MRCY)
$39.49
0.00 (0.00%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 493.18 | 654.74 | 796.61 | 924 | 988.20 | 1,179.33 | 1,407.42 | 1,679.64 | 2,004.50 | 2,392.20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 87.70 | 115.03 | 144.27 | 145.48 | 117.62 | 191.31 | 228.31 | 272.46 | 325.16 | 388.05 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 45.42 | 68.64 | 94.94 | 78.39 | 24.20 | 100.35 | 119.76 | 142.92 | 170.56 | 203.55 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 42.28 | 46.39 | 49.33 | 67.08 | 93.42 | 90.96 | 108.55 | 129.55 | 154.60 | 184.50 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 66.52 | 257.93 | 226.84 | 113.84 | 65.65 | 236.62 | 282.39 | 337.01 | 402.19 | 479.98 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 143.81 | 176.22 | 210.73 | 291.73 | 447.85 | 376.02 | 448.74 | 535.54 | 639.11 | 762.73 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 108.59 | 137.11 | 178.09 | 221.64 | 270.34 | 275.16 | 328.38 | 391.89 | 467.69 | 558.14 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 21.32 | 39.03 | 41.88 | 47.95 | 98.67 | 72.45 | 86.46 | 103.18 | 123.14 | 146.96 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -15.11 | -26.69 | -43.29 | -45.60 | -27.66 | -47.90 | -57.16 | -68.22 | -81.41 | -97.16 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 39.49 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.998 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 55.90 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 38.71 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 0.68% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 8.522 |
| Total Debt | 521.39 |
| Total Equity | 2,207.53 |
| Total Capital | 2,728.92 |
| Debt Weighting | 19.11 |
| Equity Weighting | 80.89 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 493.18 | 654.74 | 796.61 | 924 | 988.20 | 1,179.33 | 1,407.42 | 1,679.64 | 2,004.50 | 2,392.20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 87.70 | 115.03 | 144.27 | 145.48 | 117.62 | 191.31 | 228.31 | 272.46 | 325.16 | 388.05 |
| EBIT | 45.42 | 68.64 | 94.94 | 78.39 | 24.20 | 100.35 | 119.76 | 142.92 | 170.56 | 203.55 |
| Tax Rate | 3.97% | 21.42% | 8.75% | 19.60% | 38.71% | 18.49% | 18.49% | 18.49% | 18.49% | 18.49% |
| EBIAT | 43.62 | 53.93 | 86.63 | 63.03 | 14.83 | 81.79 | 97.61 | 116.49 | 139.02 | 165.91 |
| Depreciation | 42.28 | 46.39 | 49.33 | 67.08 | 93.42 | 90.96 | 108.55 | 129.55 | 154.60 | 184.50 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -32.41 | -34.51 | -81 | -156.12 | 71.83 | -72.73 | -86.79 | -103.58 | -123.61 |
| Inventories | - | -28.53 | -40.98 | -43.55 | -48.70 | -4.82 | -53.22 | -63.51 | -75.80 | -90.46 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 17.71 | 2.85 | 6.07 | 50.72 | -26.22 | 14.01 | 16.72 | 19.96 | 23.82 |
| Capital Expenditure | -15.11 | -26.69 | -43.29 | -45.60 | -27.66 | -47.90 | -57.16 | -68.22 | -81.41 | -97.16 |
| UFCF | 70.79 | 30.41 | 20.02 | -33.96 | -73.50 | 165.64 | 37.07 | 44.24 | 52.79 | 63 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 154.78 | 32.36 | 36.09 | 40.24 | 44.88 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 308.35 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 7.02 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 64.26 |
| Terminal Value | 1,280.11 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 911.85 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 1,220.19 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 455.73 |
| Equity Value | 764.46 |
| Shares Outstanding | 55.90 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 13.68 |