Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Morguard North American Residential... (MRG-UN.TO)
$17.4
+0.25 (+1.46%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 241.37 | 245.60 | 248.68 | 245.57 | 278.49 | 289.05 | 300.01 | 311.38 | 323.18 | 335.43 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 245.71 | 132.09 | 221.62 | 353.98 | 339.50 | 295.26 | 306.46 | 318.07 | 330.13 | 342.64 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | - | - | - | - | - | 295.26 | 306.46 | 318.07 | 330.13 | 342.64 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 16.79 | 17.75 | 27.30 | 26.56 | 14.64 | 23.84 | 24.74 | 25.68 | 26.65 | 27.66 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 3.65 | 3.33 | 5.65 | 7.19 | 11.40 | 7.03 | 7.30 | 7.57 | 7.86 | 8.16 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | - | - | - | - | 44.98 | 46.69 | 48.46 | 50.29 | 52.20 | 54.18 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 17.4 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.027 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 39.11 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 29.24 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.38% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 8.228 |
| Total Debt | 1,483.54 |
| Total Equity | 680.55 |
| Total Capital | 2,164.08 |
| Debt Weighting | 68.55 |
| Equity Weighting | 31.45 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 241.37 | 245.60 | 248.68 | 245.57 | 278.49 | 289.05 | 300.01 | 311.38 | 323.18 | 335.43 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 245.71 | 132.09 | 221.62 | 353.98 | 339.50 | 295.26 | 306.46 | 318.07 | 330.13 | 342.64 |
| EBIT | - | - | - | - | - | 295.26 | 306.46 | 318.07 | 330.13 | 342.64 |
| Tax Rate | 13.12% | 11.05% | -6.51% | 22.03% | 29.24% | 13.79% | 13.79% | 13.79% | 13.79% | 13.79% |
| EBIAT | - | - | - | - | - | 254.56 | 264.21 | 274.22 | 284.62 | 295.41 |
| Depreciation | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 0.32 | -2.32 | -1.54 | -4.21 | 4.37 | -0.27 | -0.28 | -0.29 | -0.30 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | - | - | - | - | 1.71 | 1.77 | 1.84 | 1.91 | 1.98 |
| Capital Expenditure | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| UFCF | - | - | - | - | - | 260.63 | 265.71 | 275.78 | 286.24 | 297.09 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 250.08 | 244.63 | 243.62 | 242.62 | 241.62 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 1,222.57 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 4.22 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 303.03 |
| Terminal Value | 13,649.99 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 11,101.38 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 12,323.95 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 1,468.90 |
| Equity Value | 10,855.05 |
| Shares Outstanding | 39.11 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 277.54 |