Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Moderna, Inc. (MRNA)

$189.35

-3.89 (-2.01%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -74,672,269.50 | 189.35 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 205.82135.0760.21803.4018,471172,872.921,617,944.2215,142,588.14141,721,805.471,326,396,118.97
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -235.46-359.55-477.08-703.3813,535-410,485.23-3,841,794.28-35,955,941.99-336,517,177.11-3,149,515,885.68
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -256-384.41-508.10-734.6313,303-439,891.96-4,117,016.31-38,531,787.24-360,624,907.97-3,375,143,837.15
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 20.5424.8631.0231.2523229,406.72275,222.042,575,845.2524,107,730.86225,627,951.48
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 756.031,521.431,1034,607.6110,7271,368,211.7312,805,303.50119,846,799.931,121,664,586.2010,497,830,936.80
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 16.6630.5816.301,410.533,29686,857.35812,911.307,608,161.5871,205,951.40666,427,422.85
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ---46.531,44111,749.06109,961.281,029,144.509,631,921.2690,146,628.74
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 20.7331.217.0918.3630216,897.27158,144.131,480,095.1713,852,437.73129,647,089.82
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -58.40-105.77-31.55-67.45-284-58,438.04-546,930.54-5,118,806.86-47,907,698.65-448,375,501.14
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 189.35
Beta 1.706
Diluted Shares Outstanding 381.33
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 8.15
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.81%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 11.570
Total Debt 916
Total Equity 72,205.41
Total Capital 73,121.41
Debt Weighting 1.25
Equity Weighting 98.75
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 205.82135.0760.21803.4018,471172,872.921,617,944.2215,142,588.14141,721,805.471,326,396,118.97
EBITDA -235.46-359.55-477.08-703.3813,535-410,485.23-3,841,794.28-35,955,941.99-336,517,177.11-3,149,515,885.68
EBIT -256-384.41-508.10-734.6313,303-439,891.96-4,117,016.31-38,531,787.24-360,624,907.97-3,375,143,837.15
Tax Rate 0.03%-0.08%0.14%-0.34%8.15%1.58%1.58%1.58%1.58%1.58%
EBIAT -255.92-384.73-507.42-737.1412,218.53-432,949.69-4,052,042.53-37,923,687.69-354,933,610.94-3,321,878,115.16
Depreciation 20.5424.8631.0231.2523229,406.72275,222.042,575,845.2524,107,730.86225,627,951.48
Accounts Receivable --13.9314.29-1,394.23-1,885.47-83,561.35-726,053.95-6,795,250.28-63,597,789.82-595,221,471.45
Inventories -----1,394.47-10,308.06-98,212.22-919,183.22-8,602,776.76-80,514,707.48
Accounts Payable -10.48-24.1211.27283.6416,595.27141,246.861,321,951.0412,372,342.56115,794,652.09
Capital Expenditure -58.40-105.77-31.55-67.45-284-58,438.04-546,930.54-5,118,806.86-47,907,698.65-448,375,501.14
UFCF -293.78-469.08-517.78-2,156.309,170.23-539,255.15-5,006,770.35-46,859,131.75-438,561,802.75-4,104,567,191.67
WACC
PV UFCF -483,853.88-4,030,858.25-33,849,637.25-284,256,570.56-2,387,080,171.94
SUM PV UFCF -2,709,701,091.87

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 11.45
Free cash flow (t + 1) -4,186,658,535.50
Terminal Value -44,303,264,925.97
Present Value of Terminal Value -25,765,309,792.41

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -28,475,010,884.28
Net Debt -5,932
Equity Value -28,475,004,952.28
Shares Outstanding 381.33
Equity Value Per Share -74,672,269.50