Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Moderna, Inc. (MRNA)

$175.93

-6.42 (-3.52%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: -72,619,718.84 | 175.93 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	205.82	135.07	60.21	803.40	18,471	172,872.92	1,617,944.22	15,142,588.14	141,721,805.47	1,326,396,118.97
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	-235.46	-359.55	-477.08	-703.38	13,535	-410,485.23	-3,841,794.28	-35,955,941.99	-336,517,177.11	-3,149,515,885.68
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	-256	-384.41	-508.10	-734.63	13,303	-439,891.96	-4,117,016.31	-38,531,787.24	-360,624,907.97	-3,375,143,837.15
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	20.54	24.86	31.02	31.25	232	29,406.72	275,222.04	2,575,845.25	24,107,730.86	225,627,951.48
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Total Cash	756.03	1,521.43	1,103	4,607.61	10,727	1,368,211.73	12,805,303.50	119,846,799.93	1,121,664,586.20	10,497,830,936.80
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	16.66	30.58	16.30	1,410.53	3,296	86,857.35	812,911.30	7,608,161.58	71,205,951.40	666,427,422.85
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	-	-	-	46.53	1,441	11,749.06	109,961.28	1,029,144.50	9,631,921.26	90,146,628.74
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	20.73	31.21	7.09	18.36	302	16,897.27	158,144.13	1,480,095.17	13,852,437.73	129,647,089.82
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-58.40	-105.77	-31.55	-67.45	-284	-58,438.04	-546,930.54	-5,118,806.86	-47,907,698.65	-448,375,501.14
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 175.93
Beta	1.734
Diluted Shares Outstanding	381.33
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	8.15
After-tax Cost of Debt	1.81%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	11.783
Total Debt	916
Total Equity	67,087.93
Total Capital	68,003.93
Debt Weighting	1.35
Equity Weighting	98.65
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	205.82	135.07	60.21	803.40	18,471	172,872.92	1,617,944.22	15,142,588.14	141,721,805.47	1,326,396,118.97
EBITDA	-235.46	-359.55	-477.08	-703.38	13,535	-410,485.23	-3,841,794.28	-35,955,941.99	-336,517,177.11	-3,149,515,885.68
EBIT	-256	-384.41	-508.10	-734.63	13,303	-439,891.96	-4,117,016.31	-38,531,787.24	-360,624,907.97	-3,375,143,837.15
Tax Rate	0.03%	-0.08%	0.14%	-0.34%	8.15%	1.58%	1.58%	1.58%	1.58%	1.58%
EBIAT	-255.92	-384.73	-507.42	-737.14	12,218.53	-432,949.69	-4,052,042.53	-37,923,687.69	-354,933,610.94	-3,321,878,115.16
Depreciation	20.54	24.86	31.02	31.25	232	29,406.72	275,222.04	2,575,845.25	24,107,730.86	225,627,951.48
Accounts Receivable	-	-13.93	14.29	-1,394.23	-1,885.47	-83,561.35	-726,053.95	-6,795,250.28	-63,597,789.82	-595,221,471.45
Inventories	-	-	-	-	-1,394.47	-10,308.06	-98,212.22	-919,183.22	-8,602,776.76	-80,514,707.48
Accounts Payable	-	10.48	-24.12	11.27	283.64	16,595.27	141,246.86	1,321,951.04	12,372,342.56	115,794,652.09
Capital Expenditure	-58.40	-105.77	-31.55	-67.45	-284	-58,438.04	-546,930.54	-5,118,806.86	-47,907,698.65	-448,375,501.14
UFCF	-293.78	-469.08	-517.78	-2,156.30	9,170.23	-539,255.15	-5,006,770.35	-46,859,131.75	-438,561,802.75	-4,104,567,191.67
WACC
PV UFCF						-482,987.14	-4,016,430.13	-33,668,057.11	-282,225,267.78	-2,365,776,603.06
SUM PV UFCF										-2,686,169,345.22

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	11.65
Free cash flow (t + 1)	-4,186,658,535.50
Terminal Value	-43,385,062,544.08
Present Value of Terminal Value	-25,006,136,115.21

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	-27,692,305,460.43
Net Debt	-5,932
Equity Value	-27,692,299,528.43
Shares Outstanding	381.33
Equity Value Per Share	-72,619,718.84