Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Moderna, Inc. (MRNA)

$95.06

+2.82 (+3.06%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -116,498,405.87 | 95.06 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 48.04274.4917,73619,2636,754121,175.792,174,055.7039,005,466.08699,810,213.2612,555,530,900.10
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -545.72-763.1413,2969,768-3,211-323,770.70-5,808,879.19-104,219,059.37-1,869,829,270.08-33,547,237,141.75
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -576.74-794.4013,0649,420-3,832-345,163.79-6,192,699.85-111,105,315.26-1,993,377,908-35,763,864,895.60
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 31.0231.2523234862121,393.09383,820.666,886,255.89123,548,637.932,216,627,753.85
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Total Cash 1,262.995,246.4617,5709,9028,6041,167,760.7520,951,189.19375,892,346.676,744,011,282.37120,996,579,418.59
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 16.301,410.533,2961,3851,081142,885.042,563,548.6545,993,490.35825,184,712.0114,804,917,038.51
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories -904.1946.531,441949202-448,188.35-8,041,098.29-144,268,054.67-2,588,361,792.90-46,438,671,307.79
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 7.0918.363024875208,089.27145,132.242,603,866.4546,716,845.51838,162,670.76
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -31.55-67.45-284-400-707-25,302.96-453,968.94-8,144,809.77-146,128,777.25-2,621,745,643.87
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 95.06
Beta 1.683
Diluted Shares Outstanding 382
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -19.58
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.16%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 12.103
Total Debt 1,243
Total Equity 36,312.92
Total Capital 37,555.92
Debt Weighting 3.31
Equity Weighting 96.69
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 48.04274.4917,73619,2636,754121,175.792,174,055.7039,005,466.08699,810,213.2612,555,530,900.10
EBITDA -545.72-763.1413,2969,768-3,211-323,770.70-5,808,879.19-104,219,059.37-1,869,829,270.08-33,547,237,141.75
EBIT -576.74-794.4013,0649,420-3,832-345,163.79-6,192,699.85-111,105,315.26-1,993,377,908-35,763,864,895.60
Tax Rate 0.14%-0.34%8.15%12.67%-19.58%0.21%0.21%0.21%0.21%0.21%
EBIAT -575.96-797.1211,999.028,226.64-4,582.46-344,453.53-6,179,956.80-110,876,687.90-1,989,276,027.45-35,690,271,674.14
Depreciation 31.0231.2523234862121,393.09383,820.666,886,255.89123,548,637.932,216,627,753.85
Accounts Receivable --1,394.23-1,885.471,911304-141,804.04-2,420,663.61-43,429,941.70-779,191,221.66-13,979,732,326.49
Inventories --950.72-1,394.47492747448,390.357,592,909.94136,226,956.372,444,093,738.2343,850,309,514.89
Accounts Payable -11.27283.64185337,569.27137,042.982,458,734.2144,112,979.07791,445,825.25
Capital Expenditure -31.55-67.45-284-400-707-25,302.96-453,968.94-8,144,809.77-146,128,777.25-2,621,745,643.87
UFCF -576.50-3,166.998,950.7110,762.64-3,584.46-34,207.82-940,815.77-16,879,492.90-302,840,671.15-5,433,366,550.51
WACC
PV UFCF -30,586.39-752,160.07-12,066,127.78-193,564,435.96-3,105,154,492.64
SUM PV UFCF -3,311,567,802.83

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 11.84
Free cash flow (t + 1) -5,650,701,212.53
Terminal Value -72,075,270,568.05
Present Value of Terminal Value -41,190,824,902.33

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -44,502,392,705.16
Net Debt -1,664
Equity Value -44,502,391,041.16
Shares Outstanding 382
Equity Value Per Share -116,498,405.87