Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Morgan Stanley (MS)

$85.64

+1.46 (+1.73%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 352.39 | 85.64 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	37,714	38,926	45,269	56,414	50,210	54,368.76	58,871.97	63,748.18	69,028.27	74,745.69
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	23,028	26,153	23,384	25,164	30,205	30,953.76	33,517.58	36,293.74	39,299.86	42,554.96
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	21,184	23,510	19,615	20,948	26,207	27,100	29,344.62	31,775.16	34,407.01	37,256.85
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	1,844	2,643	3,769	4,216	3,998	3,853.76	4,172.95	4,518.59	4,892.85	5,298.11
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	51,840	49,659	177,835	189,668	128,843	135,996.33	147,260.54	159,457.72	172,665.17	186,966.56
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	53,298	55,646	97,737	96,018	84,149.45	91,119.31	98,666.48	106,838.75	115,687.92	125,270.03
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	179,559	197,834	227,437	228,685	237,508.30	257,180.46	278,482.02	301,547.93	326,524.32	353,569.44
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-1,865	-1,826	-1,444	-2,308	-2,123.51	-2,299.40	-2,489.85	-2,696.08	-2,919.39	-3,161.19
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 85.64
Beta	1.349
Diluted Shares Outstanding	1,814
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	21.72
After-tax Cost of Debt	3.91%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	9.848
Total Debt	-
Total Equity	155,350.96
Total Capital	155,350.96
Debt Weighting	0.00
Equity Weighting	100.00
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	37,714	38,926	45,269	56,414	50,210	54,368.76	58,871.97	63,748.18	69,028.27	74,745.69
EBITDA	23,028	26,153	23,384	25,164	30,205	30,953.76	33,517.58	36,293.74	39,299.86	42,554.96
EBIT	21,184	23,510	19,615	20,948	26,207	27,100	29,344.62	31,775.16	34,407.01	37,256.85
Tax Rate	22.15%	19.99%	23.73%	23.56%	21.72%	22.23%	22.23%	22.23%	22.23%	22.23%
EBIAT	16,491.74	18,810.50	14,959.53	16,012.42	20,515.08	21,075.47	22,821.09	24,711.30	26,758.07	28,974.36
Depreciation	1,844	2,643	3,769	4,216	3,998	3,853.76	4,172.95	4,518.59	4,892.85	5,298.11
Accounts Receivable	-	-2,348	-42,091	1,719	11,868.55	-6,969.87	-7,547.16	-8,172.28	-8,849.16	-9,582.11
Inventories	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Accounts Payable	-	18,275	29,603	1,248	8,823.30	19,672.16	21,301.56	23,065.91	24,976.39	27,045.12
Capital Expenditure	-1,865	-1,826	-1,444	-2,308	-2,123.51	-2,299.40	-2,489.85	-2,696.08	-2,919.39	-3,161.19
UFCF	16,470.74	35,554.50	4,796.53	20,887.42	43,081.42	35,332.12	38,258.58	41,427.43	44,858.75	48,574.28
WACC
PV UFCF						32,163.97	31,705.07	31,252.72	30,806.83	30,367.29
SUM PV UFCF										156,295.88

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	9.85
Free cash flow (t + 1)	49,545.77
Terminal Value	631,156.28
Present Value of Terminal Value	394,581.40

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	550,877.27
Net Debt	-88,362
Equity Value	639,239.27
Shares Outstanding	1,814
Equity Value Per Share	352.39