Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Morgan Stanley (MS)

$86.5

+0.64 (+0.75%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 344.98 | 86.5 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 37,71438,92645,26956,41450,21054,368.7658,871.9763,748.1869,028.2774,745.69
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 23,02826,15323,38425,16430,20530,953.7633,517.5836,293.7439,299.8642,554.96
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 21,18423,51019,61520,94826,20727,10029,344.6231,775.1634,407.0137,256.85
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 1,8442,6433,7694,2163,9983,853.764,172.954,518.594,892.855,298.11
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 51,84049,659177,835189,668128,843135,996.33147,260.54159,457.72172,665.17186,966.56
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 53,29855,64697,73796,01884,149.4591,119.3198,666.48106,838.75115,687.92125,270.03
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 179,559197,834227,437228,685237,508.30257,180.46278,482.02301,547.93326,524.32353,569.44
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -1,865-1,826-1,444-2,308-2,123.51-2,299.40-2,489.85-2,696.08-2,919.39-3,161.19
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 86.5
Beta 1.325
Diluted Shares Outstanding 1,814
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 21.72
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.91%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.039
Total Debt -
Total Equity 156,911
Total Capital 156,911
Debt Weighting 0.00
Equity Weighting 100.00
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 37,71438,92645,26956,41450,21054,368.7658,871.9763,748.1869,028.2774,745.69
EBITDA 23,02826,15323,38425,16430,20530,953.7633,517.5836,293.7439,299.8642,554.96
EBIT 21,18423,51019,61520,94826,20727,10029,344.6231,775.1634,407.0137,256.85
Tax Rate 22.15%19.99%23.73%23.56%21.72%22.23%22.23%22.23%22.23%22.23%
EBIAT 16,491.7418,810.5014,959.5316,012.4220,515.0821,075.4722,821.0924,711.3026,758.0728,974.36
Depreciation 1,8442,6433,7694,2163,9983,853.764,172.954,518.594,892.855,298.11
Accounts Receivable --2,348-42,0911,71911,868.55-6,969.87-7,547.16-8,172.28-8,849.16-9,582.11
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable -18,27529,6031,2488,823.3019,672.1621,301.5623,065.9124,976.3927,045.12
Capital Expenditure -1,865-1,826-1,444-2,308-2,123.51-2,299.40-2,489.85-2,696.08-2,919.39-3,161.19
UFCF 16,470.7435,554.504,796.5320,887.4243,081.4235,332.1238,258.5841,427.4344,858.7548,574.28
WACC
PV UFCF 32,108.4331,595.6831,091.1130,594.6130,106.03
SUM PV UFCF 155,495.86

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 10.04
Free cash flow (t + 1) 49,545.77
Terminal Value 616,240.90
Present Value of Terminal Value 381,942.17

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 537,438.03
Net Debt -88,362
Equity Value 625,800.03
Shares Outstanding 1,814
Equity Value Per Share 344.98