Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Morgan Stanley (MS)
$86.5
+0.64 (+0.75%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 37,714 | 38,926 | 45,269 | 56,414 | 50,210 | 54,368.76 | 58,871.97 | 63,748.18 | 69,028.27 | 74,745.69 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 23,028 | 26,153 | 23,384 | 25,164 | 30,205 | 30,953.76 | 33,517.58 | 36,293.74 | 39,299.86 | 42,554.96 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 21,184 | 23,510 | 19,615 | 20,948 | 26,207 | 27,100 | 29,344.62 | 31,775.16 | 34,407.01 | 37,256.85 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 1,844 | 2,643 | 3,769 | 4,216 | 3,998 | 3,853.76 | 4,172.95 | 4,518.59 | 4,892.85 | 5,298.11 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 51,840 | 49,659 | 177,835 | 189,668 | 128,843 | 135,996.33 | 147,260.54 | 159,457.72 | 172,665.17 | 186,966.56 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 53,298 | 55,646 | 97,737 | 96,018 | 84,149.45 | 91,119.31 | 98,666.48 | 106,838.75 | 115,687.92 | 125,270.03 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 179,559 | 197,834 | 227,437 | 228,685 | 237,508.30 | 257,180.46 | 278,482.02 | 301,547.93 | 326,524.32 | 353,569.44 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -1,865 | -1,826 | -1,444 | -2,308 | -2,123.51 | -2,299.40 | -2,489.85 | -2,696.08 | -2,919.39 | -3,161.19 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 86.5 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.325 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 1,814 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 21.72 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.91% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 10.039 |
Total Debt | - |
Total Equity | 156,911 |
Total Capital | 156,911 |
Debt Weighting | 0.00 |
Equity Weighting | 100.00 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 37,714 | 38,926 | 45,269 | 56,414 | 50,210 | 54,368.76 | 58,871.97 | 63,748.18 | 69,028.27 | 74,745.69 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 23,028 | 26,153 | 23,384 | 25,164 | 30,205 | 30,953.76 | 33,517.58 | 36,293.74 | 39,299.86 | 42,554.96 |
EBIT | 21,184 | 23,510 | 19,615 | 20,948 | 26,207 | 27,100 | 29,344.62 | 31,775.16 | 34,407.01 | 37,256.85 |
Tax Rate | 22.15% | 19.99% | 23.73% | 23.56% | 21.72% | 22.23% | 22.23% | 22.23% | 22.23% | 22.23% |
EBIAT | 16,491.74 | 18,810.50 | 14,959.53 | 16,012.42 | 20,515.08 | 21,075.47 | 22,821.09 | 24,711.30 | 26,758.07 | 28,974.36 |
Depreciation | 1,844 | 2,643 | 3,769 | 4,216 | 3,998 | 3,853.76 | 4,172.95 | 4,518.59 | 4,892.85 | 5,298.11 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -2,348 | -42,091 | 1,719 | 11,868.55 | -6,969.87 | -7,547.16 | -8,172.28 | -8,849.16 | -9,582.11 |
Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Accounts Payable | - | 18,275 | 29,603 | 1,248 | 8,823.30 | 19,672.16 | 21,301.56 | 23,065.91 | 24,976.39 | 27,045.12 |
Capital Expenditure | -1,865 | -1,826 | -1,444 | -2,308 | -2,123.51 | -2,299.40 | -2,489.85 | -2,696.08 | -2,919.39 | -3,161.19 |
UFCF | 16,470.74 | 35,554.50 | 4,796.53 | 20,887.42 | 43,081.42 | 35,332.12 | 38,258.58 | 41,427.43 | 44,858.75 | 48,574.28 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 32,108.43 | 31,595.68 | 31,091.11 | 30,594.61 | 30,106.03 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 155,495.86 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 10.04 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 49,545.77 |
Terminal Value | 616,240.90 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 381,942.17 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 537,438.03 |
---|---|
Net Debt | -88,362 |
Equity Value | 625,800.03 |
Shares Outstanding | 1,814 |
Equity Value Per Share | 344.98 |