Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Studio City International Holdings ... (MSC)

$ 7.11
+0.23 (+3.34%)
Stock DCF: -32.63 | 7.11 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Revenue 424.53539.81571.21626.7349.2143.1237.7933.1229.0225.44
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 88.78251.97307.34338.20-57.505.054.423.873.402.98
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -83.0875.64139.45166.26-217.84-34.27-30.03-26.32-23.06-20.21
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 171.86176.33167.89171.94160.3339.3134.4530.1926.4623.19
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Total Cash 336.78358.28345.85299.37575.22122.73107.5594.2582.6072.39
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 4.4040.1744.0563.3910.834.173.653.202.802.46
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 9.4810.149.909.769.302.271.991.741.531.34
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 3.482.726.423.340.210.290.260.230.200.17
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -111.73-43.80-153.25-78.59-202.81-41.91-36.73-32.19-28.21-24.72
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 7.11
Beta -0.794
Diluted Shares Outstanding 60.45
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 20.80
After-tax Cost of Debt 5.18%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity -2.313
Total Debt 1,602.79
Total Equity 429.83
Total Capital 2,032.62
Debt Weighting 78.85
Equity Weighting 21.15
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Revenue 424.53539.81571.21626.7349.2143.1237.7933.1229.0225.44
EBITDA 88.78251.97307.34338.20-57.505.054.423.873.402.98
EBIT -83.0875.64139.45166.26-217.84-34.27-30.03-26.32-23.06-20.21
Tax Rate -0.20%0.31%-6.92%23.77%20.80%7.55%7.55%7.55%7.55%7.55%
EBIAT -83.2475.41149.10126.73-172.52-31.68-27.76-24.33-21.32-18.68
Depreciation 171.86176.33167.89171.94160.3339.3134.4530.1926.4623.19
Accounts Receivable --35.77-3.88-19.3452.566.660.520.450.400.35
Inventories --0.660.240.140.477.030.280.250.220.19
Accounts Payable --0.763.70-3.08-3.130.09-0.04-0.03-0.03-0.02
Capital Expenditure -111.73-43.80-153.25-78.59-202.81-41.91-36.73-32.19-28.21-24.72
UFCF -23.11170.74163.80197.81-165.11-20.50-29.28-25.66-22.49-19.71
WACC
PV UFCF -19.79-27.28-23.08-19.52-16.51
SUM PV UFCF -106.18

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 3.60
Free cash flow (t + 1) -20.02
Terminal Value -1,001.13
Present Value of Terminal Value -838.86

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -945.04
Net Debt 1,027.58
Equity Value -1,972.62
Shares Outstanding 60.45
Equity Value Per Share -32.63