Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)
$248.16
+0.16 (+0.06%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 110,360 | 125,843 | 143,015 | 168,088 | 198,270 | 229,578.28 | 265,830.36 | 307,806.91 | 356,411.86 | 412,691.88 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 49,468 | 58,056 | 68,423 | 85,134 | 100,239 | 110,200.51 | 127,601.98 | 147,751.26 | 171,082.26 | 198,097.39 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 39,207 | 46,374 | 55,627 | 73,448 | 85,779 | 91,019.96 | 105,392.67 | 122,034.94 | 141,305.15 | 163,618.26 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 10,261 | 11,682 | 12,796 | 11,686 | 14,460 | 19,180.56 | 22,209.30 | 25,716.32 | 29,777.11 | 34,479.13 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 133,768 | 133,819 | 136,527 | 130,334 | 104,749 | 208,173.63 | 241,045.77 | 279,108.65 | 323,181.93 | 374,214.71 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 26,481 | 29,524 | 32,011 | 38,043 | 44,261 | 52,709.08 | 61,032.23 | 70,669.66 | 81,828.91 | 94,750.29 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 2,662 | 2,063 | 1,895 | 2,636 | 3,742 | 4,055.29 | 4,695.65 | 5,437.12 | 6,295.68 | 7,289.82 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 8,617 | 9,382 | 12,530 | 15,163 | 19,000 | 19,573.15 | 22,663.89 | 26,242.68 | 30,386.60 | 35,184.86 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -11,632 | -13,925 | -15,441 | -20,622 | -23,886 | -26,042.43 | -30,154.72 | -34,916.37 | -40,429.92 | -46,814.10 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 248.16 |
---|---|
Beta | 0.926 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 7,540 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 13.11 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.93% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 7.891 |
Total Debt | 61,270 |
Total Equity | 1,871,126.40 |
Total Capital | 1,932,396.40 |
Debt Weighting | 3.17 |
Equity Weighting | 96.83 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 110,360 | 125,843 | 143,015 | 168,088 | 198,270 | 229,578.28 | 265,830.36 | 307,806.91 | 356,411.86 | 412,691.88 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 49,468 | 58,056 | 68,423 | 85,134 | 100,239 | 110,200.51 | 127,601.98 | 147,751.26 | 171,082.26 | 198,097.39 |
EBIT | 39,207 | 46,374 | 55,627 | 73,448 | 85,779 | 91,019.96 | 105,392.67 | 122,034.94 | 141,305.15 | 163,618.26 |
Tax Rate | 54.57% | 10.18% | 16.51% | 13.83% | 13.11% | 21.64% | 21.64% | 21.64% | 21.64% | 21.64% |
EBIAT | 17,812.67 | 41,652.53 | 46,444.29 | 63,292.63 | 74,530.47 | 71,323.86 | 82,586.42 | 95,627.42 | 110,727.68 | 128,212.39 |
Depreciation | 10,261 | 11,682 | 12,796 | 11,686 | 14,460 | 19,180.56 | 22,209.30 | 25,716.32 | 29,777.11 | 34,479.13 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -3,043 | -2,487 | -6,032 | -6,218 | -8,448.08 | -8,323.15 | -9,637.43 | -11,159.25 | -12,921.38 |
Inventories | - | 599 | 168 | -741 | -1,106 | -313.29 | -640.36 | -741.48 | -858.56 | -994.13 |
Accounts Payable | - | 765 | 3,148 | 2,633 | 3,837 | 573.15 | 3,090.74 | 3,578.79 | 4,143.91 | 4,798.26 |
Capital Expenditure | -11,632 | -13,925 | -15,441 | -20,622 | -23,886 | -26,042.43 | -30,154.72 | -34,916.37 | -40,429.92 | -46,814.10 |
UFCF | 16,441.67 | 37,730.53 | 44,628.29 | 50,216.63 | 61,617.47 | 56,273.77 | 68,768.24 | 79,627.25 | 92,200.97 | 106,760.17 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 52,235.93 | 59,253.58 | 63,687.14 | 68,452.43 | 73,574.27 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 317,203.35 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 7.73 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 108,895.38 |
Terminal Value | 1,900,442.88 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 1,309,699.08 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 1,626,902.42 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 47,339 |
Equity Value | 1,579,563.42 |
Shares Outstanding | 7,540 |
Equity Value Per Share | 209.49 |