Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Madison Square Garden Sports Corp. (MSGS)

$164.99

+2.60 (+1.60%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -185.59 | 164.99 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 1,559.101,631.07603.32415.72821.35837.95854.89872.17889.80907.78
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 162.62152.38-63.97-71.2492.965.625.735.855.966.08
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 40.1433.18-157.33-76.8187.92-49.01-50-51.01-52.04-53.09
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 122.49119.1993.365.575.0454.6255.7356.855859.18
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 1,225.641,194.7977.8564.9091.02320.87327.36333.97340.72347.61
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 101.2998.347.5480.6275.5771.0172.4473.9175.4076.92
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 28.9425.012.302.2311.269.529.719.9010.1010.31
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -191.91-188.83-362.47-0.47-0.93-141.10-143.95-146.86-149.83-152.86
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 164.99
Beta 0.688
Diluted Shares Outstanding 24.41
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 30.84
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.82%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 6.755
Total Debt 993.29
Total Equity 4,026.58
Total Capital 5,019.87
Debt Weighting 19.79
Equity Weighting 80.21
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 1,559.101,631.07603.32415.72821.35837.95854.89872.17889.80907.78
EBITDA 162.62152.38-63.97-71.2492.965.625.735.855.966.08
EBIT 40.1433.18-157.33-76.8187.92-49.01-50-51.01-52.04-53.09
Tax Rate -705.61%745.96%-86.02%84.38%30.84%13.91%13.91%13.91%13.91%13.91%
EBIAT 323.35-214.36-292.67-1260.80-42.19-43.04-43.91-44.80-45.71
Depreciation 122.49119.1993.365.575.0454.6255.7356.855859.18
Accounts Receivable -2.9590.80-73.085.044.57-1.44-1.46-1.49-1.52
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable --3.93-22.71-0.079.04-1.750.190.200.200.20
Capital Expenditure -191.91-188.83-362.48-0.47-0.93-141.10-143.95-146.86-149.83-152.86
UFCF 253.92-284.98-493.69-80.0578.99-125.85-132.51-135.19-137.92-140.71
WACC
PV UFCF -119.20-118.87-114.87-110.99-107.25
SUM PV UFCF -571.18

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.58
Free cash flow (t + 1) -143.52
Terminal Value -4,008.99
Present Value of Terminal Value -3,055.82

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -3,627
Net Debt 902.27
Equity Value -4,529.27
Shares Outstanding 24.41
Equity Value Per Share -185.59