Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

ArcelorMittal S.A. (MT)

$24.65

-0.75 (-2.95%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 28.65 | 24.65 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 68,67976,03370,61553,27076,57180,927.9885,532.8890,399.8095,543.66100,980.21
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 8,6478,2861,7674,37015,0798,721.939,218.229,742.7510,297.1210,883.04
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 5,8795,487-1,3001,41012,7745,384.175,690.546,014.346,356.566,718.25
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 2,7682,7993,0672,9602,3053,337.763,527.683,728.413,940.564,164.78
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 2,5742,1724,8675,6004,3714,809.995,083.695,372.965,678.686,001.81
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 5,3456,1655,2524,1905,1436,136.066,485.216,854.237,244.247,656.45
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 17,98620,74417,29612,32819,85820,562.4021,732.4322,969.0324,275.9925,657.32
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 13,42813,98112,61411,52515,09315,724.1716,618.8917,564.5318,563.9719,620.28
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -2,819-3,305-3,572-2,439-3,008-3,563.54-3,766.31-3,980.62-4,207.12-4,446.51
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 24.65
Beta 2.133
Diluted Shares Outstanding 1,140
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 17.03
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.75%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 12.858
Total Debt 8,401
Total Equity 28,101
Total Capital 36,502
Debt Weighting 23.02
Equity Weighting 76.98
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 68,67976,03370,61553,27076,57180,927.9885,532.8890,399.8095,543.66100,980.21
EBITDA 8,6478,2861,7674,37015,0798,721.939,218.229,742.7510,297.1210,883.04
EBIT 5,8795,487-1,3001,41012,7745,384.175,690.546,014.346,356.566,718.25
Tax Rate 8.77%-3.37%-27.02%167.37%17.03%32.55%32.55%32.55%32.55%32.55%
EBIAT 5,363.555,672.07-1,651.24-949.9410,599.053,631.373,837.994,056.384,287.194,531.14
Depreciation 2,7682,7993,0672,9602,3053,337.763,527.683,728.413,940.564,164.78
Accounts Receivable --8209131,062-953-993.06-349.15-369.02-390.01-412.21
Inventories --2,7583,4484,968-7,530-704.40-1,170.03-1,236.60-1,306.97-1,381.33
Accounts Payable -553-1,367-1,0893,568631.17894.72945.63999.441,056.31
Capital Expenditure -2,819-3,305-3,572-2,439-3,008-3,563.54-3,766.31-3,980.62-4,207.12-4,446.51
UFCF 5,312.552,141.07837.764,512.064,981.052,339.282,974.913,144.193,323.103,512.18
WACC
PV UFCF 2,116.422,435.082,328.462,226.502,129
SUM PV UFCF 11,235.46

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 10.53
Free cash flow (t + 1) 3,582.43
Terminal Value 41,997.99
Present Value of Terminal Value 25,458.20

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 36,693.66
Net Debt 4,030
Equity Value 32,663.66
Shares Outstanding 1,140
Equity Value Per Share 28.65