Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Vail Resorts, Inc. (MTN)

$213.55

+3.26 (+1.55%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 199.08 | 213.55 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 2,011.552,271.571,963.701,909.712,525.912,708.352,903.963,113.703,338.593,579.73
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 586.45674.25462.50532.56837.32776.89833893.16957.671,026.84
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 381.99456.13212.93279.98584.93475.21509.53546.33585.79628.10
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 204.46218.12249.57252.59252.39301.68323.47346.83371.88398.74
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 178.15108.85390.981,243.961,107.43772.09827.86887.65951.761,020.51
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 230.83270.90106.66345.41383.43336.37360.67386.72414.65444.60
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 85.5996.54101.8680.32108.72120.26128.95138.26148.24158.95
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 80.7996.3859.6998.26103.84111.34119.38128.01137.25147.17
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -140.61-192.03-172.33-115.10-192.82-205.19-220.01-235.90-252.93-271.20
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 213.55
Beta 1.208
Diluted Shares Outstanding 40.83
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 23.89
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.87%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.448
Total Debt 2,908.62
Total Equity 8,718.82
Total Capital 11,627.44
Debt Weighting 25.02
Equity Weighting 74.98
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 2,011.552,271.571,963.701,909.712,525.912,708.352,903.963,113.703,338.593,579.73
EBITDA 586.45674.25462.50532.56837.32776.89833893.16957.671,026.84
EBIT 381.99456.13212.93279.98584.93475.21509.53546.33585.79628.10
Tax Rate -11.70%24.51%15.12%-2.13%23.89%9.94%9.94%9.94%9.94%9.94%
EBIAT 426.70344.32180.75285.94445.16427.98458.90492.04527.58565.68
Depreciation 204.46218.12249.57252.59252.39301.68323.47346.83371.88398.74
Accounts Receivable --40.07164.23-238.74-38.0247.05-24.29-26.05-27.93-29.95
Inventories --10.95-5.3221.54-28.41-11.54-8.69-9.31-9.99-10.71
Accounts Payable -15.58-36.6838.575.587.508.048.629.259.91
Capital Expenditure -140.61-192.03-172.33-115.10-192.82-205.19-220.01-235.90-252.93-271.20
UFCF 490.55334.96380.21244.79443.89567.49537.42576.23617.85662.48
WACC
PV UFCF 525.21460.32456.80453.30449.83
SUM PV UFCF 2,345.46

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.05
Free cash flow (t + 1) 675.73
Terminal Value 11,169.03
Present Value of Terminal Value 7,583.88

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 9,929.35
Net Debt 1,801.19
Equity Value 8,128.16
Shares Outstanding 40.83
Equity Value Per Share 199.08