Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings... (MTSI)
$60.09
-1.01 (-1.65%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 570.40 | 499.71 | 530.04 | 606.92 | 675.17 | 707.96 | 742.34 | 778.40 | 816.20 | 855.84 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | -17.73 | -282.93 | 64.64 | 133.49 | 304.65 | 27.73 | 29.08 | 30.49 | 31.97 | 33.52 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | -130.11 | -387.35 | -14.18 | 63.54 | 247.42 | -79.13 | -82.98 | -87 | -91.23 | -95.66 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 112.38 | 104.42 | 78.83 | 69.95 | 57.23 | 106.86 | 112.05 | 117.49 | 123.20 | 129.18 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 192.90 | 176.75 | 333.15 | 344.90 | 586.53 | 390.43 | 409.39 | 429.27 | 450.12 | 471.98 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 114.98 | 86.45 | 47.12 | 84.57 | 101.55 | 106.65 | 111.83 | 117.26 | 122.96 | 128.93 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 122.84 | 107.88 | 91.58 | 82.70 | 114.96 | 128.93 | 135.19 | 141.75 | 148.64 | 155.86 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 41.95 | 24.82 | 23.04 | 28.71 | 30.73 | 36.75 | 38.53 | 40.40 | 42.36 | 44.42 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -53.04 | -37.96 | -17.57 | -17.95 | -26.51 | -38.37 | -40.23 | -42.18 | -44.23 | -46.38 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 60.09 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.853 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 70.47 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | -80.96 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 0.72% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 12.447 |
| Total Debt | 600.43 |
| Total Equity | 4,234.78 |
| Total Capital | 4,835.22 |
| Debt Weighting | 12.42 |
| Equity Weighting | 87.58 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 570.40 | 499.71 | 530.04 | 606.92 | 675.17 | 707.96 | 742.34 | 778.40 | 816.20 | 855.84 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | -17.73 | -282.93 | 64.64 | 133.49 | 304.65 | 27.73 | 29.08 | 30.49 | 31.97 | 33.52 |
| EBIT | -130.11 | -387.35 | -14.18 | 63.54 | 247.42 | -79.13 | -82.98 | -87 | -91.23 | -95.66 |
| Tax Rate | 9.83% | 9.30% | -10.87% | 11.58% | -80.96% | -12.22% | -12.22% | -12.22% | -12.22% | -12.22% |
| EBIAT | -117.32 | -351.32 | -15.72 | 56.18 | 447.74 | -88.81 | -93.12 | -97.64 | -102.38 | -107.35 |
| Depreciation | 112.38 | 104.42 | 78.83 | 69.95 | 57.23 | 106.86 | 112.05 | 117.49 | 123.20 | 129.18 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 28.52 | 39.33 | -37.45 | -16.98 | -5.10 | -5.18 | -5.43 | -5.70 | -5.97 |
| Inventories | - | 14.96 | 16.30 | 8.89 | -32.26 | -13.97 | -6.26 | -6.57 | -6.88 | -7.22 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -17.13 | -1.78 | 5.67 | 2.02 | 6.01 | 1.78 | 1.87 | 1.96 | 2.06 |
| Capital Expenditure | -53.04 | -37.96 | -17.57 | -17.95 | -26.51 | -38.37 | -40.23 | -42.18 | -44.23 | -46.38 |
| UFCF | -57.98 | -258.52 | 99.37 | 85.29 | 431.23 | -33.36 | -30.95 | -32.46 | -34.03 | -35.68 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -30.06 | -25.13 | -23.74 | -22.43 | -21.19 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -122.54 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 10.99 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -36.40 |
| Terminal Value | -404.88 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -240.38 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -362.92 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 480.48 |
| Equity Value | -843.40 |
| Shares Outstanding | 70.47 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -11.97 |