Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Navistar International Corporation (NAV)
$44.5
+0.07 (+0.16%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected |
| Revenue | 8,111 | 8,570 | 10,250 | 11,251 | 7,503 | 7,535.18 | 7,567.50 | 7,599.95 | 7,632.55 | 7,665.28 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 488 | 614 | 930 | 745 | 61 | 447.42 | 449.34 | 451.27 | 453.20 | 455.15 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 263 | 391 | 719 | 552 | -138 | 269.56 | 270.71 | 271.87 | 273.04 | 274.21 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 225 | 223 | 211 | 193 | 199 | 177.87 | 178.63 | 179.39 | 180.16 | 180.94 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected |
| Total Cash | 850 | 1,076 | 1,421 | 1,370 | 1,843 | 1,109.76 | 1,114.52 | 1,119.30 | 1,124.10 | 1,128.92 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 1,733 | 1,956 | 2,354 | 2,261 | 1,644 | 1,645.12 | 1,652.18 | 1,659.27 | 1,666.38 | 1,673.53 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 944 | 857 | 1,110 | 911 | 763 | 764.58 | 767.86 | 771.15 | 774.46 | 777.78 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 1,113 | 1,292 | 1,606 | 1,341 | 1,278 | 1,106.44 | 1,111.19 | 1,115.95 | 1,120.74 | 1,125.54 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -248 | -239 | -345 | -286 | -245 | -226.35 | -227.32 | -228.30 | -229.28 | -230.26 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 44.5 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.880 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 99.70 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 10.57 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 4.50% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 12.482 |
| Total Debt | 5,330 |
| Total Equity | 4,436.65 |
| Total Capital | 9,766.65 |
| Debt Weighting | 54.57 |
| Equity Weighting | 45.43 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected |
| Revenue | 8,111 | 8,570 | 10,250 | 11,251 | 7,503 | 7,535.18 | 7,567.50 | 7,599.95 | 7,632.55 | 7,665.28 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 488 | 614 | 930 | 745 | 61 | 447.42 | 449.34 | 451.27 | 453.20 | 455.15 |
| EBIT | 263 | 391 | 719 | 552 | -138 | 269.56 | 270.71 | 271.87 | 273.04 | 274.21 |
| Tax Rate | -203.13% | 53.13% | 19.05% | 15.65% | 10.57% | -20.95% | -20.95% | -20.95% | -20.95% | -20.95% |
| EBIAT | 797.22 | 183.28 | 582.05 | 465.62 | -123.42 | 326.02 | 327.42 | 328.82 | 330.23 | 331.65 |
| Depreciation | 225 | 223 | 211 | 193 | 199 | 177.87 | 178.63 | 179.39 | 180.16 | 180.94 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -223 | -398 | 93 | 617 | -1.12 | -7.06 | -7.09 | -7.12 | -7.15 |
| Inventories | - | 87 | -253 | 199 | 148 | -1.58 | -3.28 | -3.29 | -3.31 | -3.32 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 179 | 314 | -265 | -63 | -171.56 | 4.75 | 4.77 | 4.79 | 4.81 |
| Capital Expenditure | -248 | -239 | -345 | -286 | -245 | -226.35 | -227.32 | -228.30 | -229.28 | -230.26 |
| UFCF | 774.22 | 210.28 | 111.05 | 399.62 | 532.58 | 103.27 | 273.14 | 274.31 | 275.48 | 276.67 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 95.52 | 233.65 | 217.03 | 201.59 | 187.25 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 935.04 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 8.12 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 282.20 |
| Terminal Value | 4,611.10 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 3,120.86 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 4,055.91 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 3,487 |
| Equity Value | 568.91 |
| Shares Outstanding | 99.70 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 5.71 |