Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

National Bank Holdings Corporation (NBHC)

$47.43

+0.99 (+2.13%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 100.77 | 47.43 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 185.68263.25290.99328.85292.81332.60377.81429.16487.49553.75
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 66.87109.16148148.90142.38147.84167.93190.76216.68246.14
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 53.9897.64132.96134.45128.79130.86148.65168.85191.80217.87
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 12.8911.5215.0414.4513.5916.9819.2821.9024.8828.26
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 1,112.71900.66748.441,267.521,537.541,403.031,593.721,810.342,056.402,335.90
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 18.2521.6226.2529.6626.413034.0838.7143.9749.94
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 5.787.028.409.508.469.6010.9112.3914.0815.99
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -5.62-6.28-11.20-4.35-7.75-8.80-10-11.35-12.90-14.65
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 47.43
Beta 0.930
Diluted Shares Outstanding 31.10
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 18.58
After-tax Cost of Debt 28.50%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.894
Total Debt 39.48
Total Equity 1,474.99
Total Capital 1,514.47
Debt Weighting 2.61
Equity Weighting 97.39
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 185.68263.25290.99328.85292.81332.60377.81429.16487.49553.75
EBITDA 66.87109.16148148.90142.38147.84167.93190.76216.68246.14
EBIT 53.9897.64132.96134.45128.79130.86148.65168.85191.80217.87
Tax Rate 59.35%16.60%16.46%19.02%18.58%26.00%26.00%26.00%26.00%26.00%
EBIAT 21.9481.43111.09108.88104.8696.84110124.95141.93161.22
Depreciation 12.8911.5215.0414.4513.5916.9819.2821.9024.8828.26
Accounts Receivable --3.37-4.63-3.413.25-3.59-4.08-4.63-5.26-5.98
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable -1.241.391.09-1.041.151.311.481.681.91
Capital Expenditure -5.62-6.28-11.20-4.35-7.75-8.80-10-11.35-12.90-14.65
UFCF 29.2284.54111.68116.66112.91102.57116.51132.35150.34170.77
WACC
PV UFCF 94.6099.10103.82108.76113.94
SUM PV UFCF 520.22

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.43
Free cash flow (t + 1) 174.19
Terminal Value 2,709.01
Present Value of Terminal Value 1,807.44

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 2,327.66
Net Debt -806.22
Equity Value 3,133.87
Shares Outstanding 31.10
Equity Value Per Share 100.77