Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Nabors Industries Ltd. (NBR)

$94.4

-15.31 (-13.95%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -292.11 | 94.4 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 2,564.283,057.623,043.382,134.042,017.551,9341,853.901,777.131,703.531,632.99
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 438.55533.95469.10311.62351.21317.13304291.41279.34267.77
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -406.89-334.56-407-542.08-342.17-319.28-306.06-293.38-281.23-269.59
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 845.44868.51876.10853.70693.38636.41610.06584.79560.57537.36
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 365.37481.80452.50481.75991.49450.97432.30414.40397.23380.78
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 698.48756.32453.04362.98287.57379.54363.82348.75334.31320.47
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 166.31165.59176.34160.59126.45121.79116.75111.92107.28102.84
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 363.42392.84295.16220.92253.75230.72221.16212203.22194.81
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -574.47-458.94-427.74-195.52-237.64-280.07-268.47-257.36-246.70-236.48
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 94.4
Beta 2.699
Diluted Shares Outstanding 7.91
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -16.63
After-tax Cost of Debt 5.25%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 16.435
Total Debt 3,268.22
Total Equity 746.42
Total Capital 4,014.64
Debt Weighting 81.41
Equity Weighting 18.59
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 2,564.283,057.623,043.382,134.042,017.551,9341,853.901,777.131,703.531,632.99
EBITDA 438.55533.95469.10311.62351.21317.13304291.41279.34267.77
EBIT -406.89-334.56-407-542.08-342.17-319.28-306.06-293.38-281.23-269.59
Tax Rate 5.74%-23.55%-19.35%-14.18%-16.63%-13.60%-13.60%-13.60%-13.60%-13.60%
EBIAT -383.55-413.33-485.76-618.97-399.09-362.69-347.67-333.27-319.47-306.24
Depreciation 845.44868.51876.10853.70693.38636.41610.06584.79560.57537.36
Accounts Receivable --57.84303.2890.0775.40-91.9715.7215.0714.4413.84
Inventories -0.72-10.7515.7634.144.655.044.834.634.44
Accounts Payable -29.43-97.68-74.2432.83-23.03-9.55-9.16-8.78-8.42
Capital Expenditure -574.47-458.94-427.74-195.52-237.64-280.07-268.47-257.36-246.70-236.48
UFCF -112.58-31.45157.4570.79199.02-116.695.124.914.714.51
WACC
PV UFCF -108.724.453.973.553.17
SUM PV UFCF -93.59

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.33
Free cash flow (t + 1) 4.60
Terminal Value 86.33
Present Value of Terminal Value 60.61

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -32.98
Net Debt 2,276.75
Equity Value -2,309.72
Shares Outstanding 7.91
Equity Value Per Share -292.11