Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

NACCO Industries, Inc. (NC)

$33.43

-0.22 (-0.65%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 51.06 | 33.43 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 135.38140.99128.43191.85241.72284.39334.59393.66463.15544.92
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 46.3145.1325.0558.6495.2388.55104.18122.58144.21169.67
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 43.2729.10-3.1335.6291.5260.6371.3383.9298.74116.17
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 3.0416.0328.1823.033.7227.9232.8538.6545.4853.51
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 85.26122.8988.4586110.75176.13207.22243.80286.84337.47
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 28.8221.8541.2746.3360.2667.1278.9792.91109.31128.60
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 31.2140.4647.5554.0871.4983.3598.07115.38135.75159.71
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 9.409.955.6512.9513.3117.4420.5124.1428.4033.41
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -20.93-24.66-30.19-39.23-42.52-53.75-63.24-74.40-87.54-102.99
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 33.43
Beta 0.861
Diluted Shares Outstanding 7.37
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 15.46
After-tax Cost of Debt 6.32%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.349
Total Debt 27.20
Total Equity 246.48
Total Capital 273.68
Debt Weighting 9.94
Equity Weighting 90.06
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 135.38140.99128.43191.85241.72284.39334.59393.66463.15544.92
EBITDA 46.3145.1325.0558.6495.2388.55104.18122.58144.21169.67
EBIT 43.2729.10-3.1335.6291.5260.6371.3383.9298.74116.17
Tax Rate 17.50%8.68%-3.75%15.35%15.46%10.65%10.65%10.65%10.65%10.65%
EBIAT 35.7026.57-3.2530.1577.3654.1763.7474.9988.22103.80
Depreciation 3.0416.0328.1823.033.7227.9232.8538.6545.4853.51
Accounts Receivable -6.96-19.42-5.05-13.94-6.85-11.85-13.94-16.40-19.30
Inventories --9.26-7.09-6.53-17.40-11.86-14.71-17.31-20.37-23.96
Accounts Payable -0.55-4.307.300.374.123.083.624.265.01
Capital Expenditure -20.93-24.66-30.19-39.23-42.52-53.75-63.24-74.40-87.54-102.99
UFCF 17.8116.20-36.069.667.5813.759.8711.6113.6616.07
WACC
PV UFCF 12.728.449.189.9810.86
SUM PV UFCF 51.18

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.15
Free cash flow (t + 1) 16.63
Terminal Value 357.69
Present Value of Terminal Value 241.75

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 292.93
Net Debt -83.55
Equity Value 376.48
Shares Outstanding 7.37
Equity Value Per Share 51.06