Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH)
$12.88
+0.51 (+4.12%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 6,055.13 | 6,462.38 | 1,279.91 | 647.99 | 4,843.76 | 11,197.18 | 25,884.22 | 59,835.81 | 138,320.77 | 319,752.23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 1,806.69 | 1,831.33 | -2,848.11 | -1,669.79 | -651.55 | -9,752.52 | -22,544.63 | -52,115.79 | -120,474.61 | -278,497.78 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 1,239.71 | 1,184.23 | -3,587.73 | -2,428.40 | -1,461.60 | -14,476.80 | -33,465.62 | -77,361.53 | -178,834.49 | -413,406.66 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 566.97 | 647.10 | 739.62 | 758.60 | 810.05 | 4,724.28 | 10,920.99 | 25,245.74 | 58,359.87 | 134,908.87 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 163.85 | 252.88 | 3,300.48 | 1,746.65 | 946.99 | 12,397.26 | 28,658.41 | 66,248.84 | 153,145.57 | 354,022.32 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 55.25 | 75.11 | 20.58 | 1,167.47 | 326.27 | 4,268.09 | 9,866.43 | 22,807.96 | 52,724.52 | 121,881.79 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 90.20 | 95.43 | 82.38 | 118.20 | 148.72 | 687.84 | 1,590.07 | 3,675.71 | 8,497.04 | 19,642.38 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 159.56 | 100.78 | 83.14 | 233.17 | 228.74 | 1,150.99 | 2,660.72 | 6,150.72 | 14,218.44 | 32,868.36 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -1,566.80 | -1,637.17 | -946.54 | -752.84 | -1,783.86 | -6,229.52 | -14,400.60 | -33,289.47 | -76,954.34 | -177,893.18 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 12.88 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 2.510 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 419.77 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 0.30 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 5.86% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 15.453 |
| Total Debt | 13,621.53 |
| Total Equity | 5,406.68 |
| Total Capital | 19,028.21 |
| Debt Weighting | 71.59 |
| Equity Weighting | 28.41 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 6,055.13 | 6,462.38 | 1,279.91 | 647.99 | 4,843.76 | 11,197.18 | 25,884.22 | 59,835.81 | 138,320.77 | 319,752.23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 1,806.69 | 1,831.33 | -2,848.11 | -1,669.79 | -651.55 | -9,752.52 | -22,544.63 | -52,115.79 | -120,474.61 | -278,497.78 |
| EBIT | 1,239.71 | 1,184.23 | -3,587.73 | -2,428.40 | -1,461.60 | -14,476.80 | -33,465.62 | -77,361.53 | -178,834.49 | -413,406.66 |
| Tax Rate | 1.49% | -2.07% | -0.31% | -0.12% | 0.30% | -0.14% | -0.14% | -0.14% | -0.14% | -0.14% |
| EBIAT | 1,221.21 | 1,208.74 | -3,598.92 | -2,431.24 | -1,457.24 | -14,497.29 | -33,512.98 | -77,471 | -179,087.54 | -413,991.64 |
| Depreciation | 566.97 | 647.10 | 739.62 | 758.60 | 810.05 | 4,724.28 | 10,920.99 | 25,245.74 | 58,359.87 | 134,908.87 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -19.86 | 54.53 | -1,146.90 | 841.20 | -3,941.82 | -5,598.34 | -12,941.52 | -29,916.56 | -69,157.27 |
| Inventories | - | -5.22 | 13.05 | -35.82 | -30.51 | -539.13 | -902.22 | -2,085.65 | -4,821.33 | -11,145.33 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -58.79 | -17.64 | 150.04 | -4.43 | 922.25 | 1,509.73 | 3,489.99 | 8,067.72 | 18,649.93 |
| Capital Expenditure | -1,566.80 | -1,637.17 | -946.54 | -752.84 | -1,783.86 | -6,229.52 | -14,400.60 | -33,289.47 | -76,954.34 | -177,893.18 |
| UFCF | 221.39 | 134.80 | -3,755.91 | -3,458.16 | -1,624.79 | -19,561.22 | -41,983.43 | -97,051.91 | -224,352.18 | -518,628.62 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -18,013.83 | -35,603.95 | -75,793.96 | -161,350.74 | -343,484.63 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -634,247.12 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 8.59 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -529,001.19 |
| Terminal Value | -8,027,332.19 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -5,316,454.11 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -5,950,701.23 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 12,674.54 |
| Equity Value | -5,963,375.77 |
| Shares Outstanding | 419.77 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -14,206.19 |