Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
NCR Corporation (NCR)
$27.155
+0.06 (+0.20%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 6,405 | 6,915 | 6,207 | 7,156 | 7,844 | 8,287.72 | 8,756.55 | 9,251.89 | 9,775.26 | 10,328.23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 764 | 871 | 543 | 1,081 | 1,106 | 1,035.61 | 1,094.19 | 1,156.09 | 1,221.48 | 1,290.58 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 434 | 538 | 179 | 564 | 496 | 524.53 | 554.20 | 585.55 | 618.67 | 653.67 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 330 | 333 | 364 | 517 | 610 | 511.08 | 539.99 | 570.54 | 602.81 | 636.91 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 464 | 509 | 338 | 447 | 505 | 542.60 | 573.29 | 605.72 | 639.99 | 676.19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 1,356 | 1,490 | 1,117 | 959 | 1,083 | 1,457.35 | 1,539.79 | 1,626.89 | 1,718.92 | 1,816.16 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 806 | 784 | 601 | 754 | 772 | 894.79 | 945.40 | 998.88 | 1,055.39 | 1,115.09 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 897 | 840 | 632 | 826 | 956 | 995.60 | 1,051.92 | 1,111.42 | 1,174.30 | 1,240.72 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -313 | -329 | -263 | -348 | -377 | -390.37 | -412.45 | -435.78 | -460.43 | -486.48 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 27.155 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.634 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 141.20 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 71.56 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 1.35% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 12.243 |
| Total Debt | 6,018 |
| Total Equity | 3,834.29 |
| Total Capital | 9,852.29 |
| Debt Weighting | 61.08 |
| Equity Weighting | 38.92 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 6,405 | 6,915 | 6,207 | 7,156 | 7,844 | 8,287.72 | 8,756.55 | 9,251.89 | 9,775.26 | 10,328.23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 764 | 871 | 543 | 1,081 | 1,106 | 1,035.61 | 1,094.19 | 1,156.09 | 1,221.48 | 1,290.58 |
| EBIT | 434 | 538 | 179 | 564 | 496 | 524.53 | 554.20 | 585.55 | 618.67 | 653.67 |
| Tax Rate | 325.64% | -65.40% | 89.83% | 65.85% | 71.56% | 97.50% | 97.50% | 97.50% | 97.50% | 97.50% |
| EBIAT | -979.28 | 889.83 | 18.20 | 192.63 | 141.04 | 13.13 | 13.87 | 14.66 | 15.49 | 16.36 |
| Depreciation | 330 | 333 | 364 | 517 | 610 | 511.08 | 539.99 | 570.54 | 602.81 | 636.91 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -134 | 373 | 158 | -124 | -374.35 | -82.44 | -87.10 | -92.03 | -97.24 |
| Inventories | - | 22 | 183 | -153 | -18 | -122.79 | -50.62 | -53.48 | -56.51 | -59.70 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -57 | -208 | 194 | 130 | 39.60 | 56.32 | 59.51 | 62.87 | 66.43 |
| Capital Expenditure | -313 | -329 | -263 | -348 | -377 | -390.37 | -412.45 | -435.78 | -460.43 | -486.48 |
| UFCF | -962.28 | 724.83 | 467.20 | 560.63 | 362.04 | -323.70 | 64.67 | 68.33 | 72.20 | 76.28 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -306.56 | 58.01 | 58.04 | 58.08 | 58.12 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -74.31 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 5.59 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 77.81 |
| Terminal Value | 2,167.35 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 1,651.26 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 1,576.95 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 5,513 |
| Equity Value | -3,936.05 |
| Shares Outstanding | 141.20 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -27.88 |