Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Noodles & Company (NDLS)
$4.73
+0.06 (+1.28%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
| Revenue | 462.41 | 393.66 | 475.15 | 489.01 | 503.27 | 517.95 | 533.06 | 548.61 | 564.61 | 581.08 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 26.78 | 1.68 | 28.15 | 19.79 | 20.37 | 20.96 | 21.58 | 22.20 | 22.85 | 23.52 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 4.69 | -20.03 | 5.82 | -4.64 | -4.78 | -4.92 | -5.06 | -5.21 | -5.36 | -5.52 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 22.09 | 21.71 | 22.33 | 24.44 | 25.15 | 25.88 | 26.64 | 27.41 | 28.21 | 29.04 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
| Total Cash | 10.46 | 7.84 | 2.26 | 7.71 | 7.93 | 8.16 | 8.40 | 8.65 | 8.90 | 9.16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 3.61 | 3.47 | 4.07 | 4.10 | 4.22 | 4.35 | 4.47 | 4.60 | 4.74 | 4.88 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 9.87 | 9.64 | 9.40 | 10.70 | 11.01 | 11.33 | 11.66 | 12 | 12.35 | 12.71 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 9.35 | 6.40 | 15.54 | 11.28 | 11.61 | 11.95 | 12.30 | 12.65 | 13.02 | 13.40 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -18.79 | -11.78 | -18.78 | -17.94 | -18.47 | -19.01 | -19.56 | -20.13 | -20.72 | -21.32 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 4.73 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.466 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 45.91 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | -1.13 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 5.31% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 10.463 |
| Total Debt | 46.05 |
| Total Equity | 217.17 |
| Total Capital | 263.22 |
| Debt Weighting | 17.50 |
| Equity Weighting | 82.50 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
| Revenue | 462.41 | 393.66 | 475.15 | 489.01 | 503.27 | 517.95 | 533.06 | 548.61 | 564.61 | 581.08 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 26.78 | 1.68 | 28.15 | 19.79 | 20.37 | 20.96 | 21.58 | 22.20 | 22.85 | 23.52 |
| EBIT | 4.69 | -20.03 | 5.82 | -4.64 | -4.78 | -4.92 | -5.06 | -5.21 | -5.36 | -5.52 |
| Tax Rate | 5.94% | -0.36% | 1.87% | 1.58% | -1.13% | 1.58% | 1.58% | 1.58% | 1.58% | 1.58% |
| EBIAT | 4.41 | -20.10 | 5.71 | -4.57 | -4.83 | -4.84 | -4.98 | -5.13 | -5.28 | -5.43 |
| Depreciation | 22.09 | 21.71 | 22.33 | 24.44 | 25.15 | 25.88 | 26.64 | 27.41 | 28.21 | 29.04 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 0.13 | -0.59 | -0.04 | -0.12 | -0.12 | -0.13 | -0.13 | -0.13 | -0.14 |
| Inventories | - | 0.23 | 0.24 | -1.29 | -0.31 | -0.32 | -0.33 | -0.34 | -0.35 | -0.36 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -2.95 | 9.14 | -4.26 | 0.33 | 0.34 | 0.35 | 0.36 | 0.37 | 0.38 |
| Capital Expenditure | -18.79 | -11.78 | -18.78 | -17.94 | -33.89 | -19.01 | -19.56 | -20.13 | -20.72 | -21.32 |
| UFCF | 7.71 | -12.76 | 18.05 | -3.67 | 1.75 | 1.93 | 1.99 | 2.04 | 2.10 | 2.17 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -4.03 | 1.75 | 1.76 | 1.65 | 1.55 | 1.46 | 1.37 | |||
| SUM PV UFCF | 7.80 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 9.56 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 2.21 |
| Terminal Value | 29.21 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 18.51 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 26.31 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 44.53 |
| Equity Value | -18.22 |
| Shares Outstanding | 45.91 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -0.40 |