Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Noodles & Company (NDLS)

$2.505

-0.01 (-0.20%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -0.41 | 2.505 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 457.84462.41393.66475.15509.48527.38545.92565.10584.96605.51
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 26.2635.278.2233.8828.6029.7430.7831.8632.9834.14
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 3.3813.19-13.4911.545.333.843.974.114.264.41
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 22.8722.0921.7122.3323.2725.9026.8127.7528.7329.74
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 4.6610.467.842.261.526.376.606.837.077.32
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 2.583.613.474.076.624.624.784.955.125.30
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 9.659.879.649.4010.0411.2211.6212.0312.4512.89
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 7.859.356.4015.5415.3112.2812.7113.1613.6214.10
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -14.34-18.79-11.78-18.78-33.89-21.93-22.70-23.50-24.32-25.18
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 2.505
Beta 1.707
Diluted Shares Outstanding 45.91
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -1.13
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.16%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 12.216
Total Debt 264.16
Total Equity 115.01
Total Capital 379.18
Debt Weighting 69.67
Equity Weighting 30.33
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 457.84462.41393.66475.15509.48527.38545.92565.10584.96605.51
EBITDA 26.2635.278.2233.8828.6029.7430.7831.8632.9834.14
EBIT 3.3813.19-13.4911.545.333.843.974.114.264.41
Tax Rate 2.85%5.94%-0.36%1.87%-1.13%1.84%1.84%1.84%1.84%1.84%
EBIAT 3.2912.40-13.5411.335.393.773.904.044.184.33
Depreciation 22.8722.0921.7122.3323.2725.9026.8127.7528.7329.74
Accounts Receivable --1.030.13-0.59-2.552-0.16-0.17-0.17-0.18
Inventories --0.220.230.24-0.64-1.18-0.39-0.41-0.42-0.44
Accounts Payable -1.50-2.959.14-0.24-3.030.430.450.460.48
Capital Expenditure -14.34-18.79-11.78-18.78-33.89-21.93-22.70-23.50-24.32-25.18
UFCF 11.8215.94-6.2023.67-8.655.537.888.168.458.75
WACC
PV UFCF 5.186.946.746.546.35
SUM PV UFCF 31.76

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.60
Free cash flow (t + 1) 9.05
Terminal Value 291.98
Present Value of Terminal Value 212.11

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 243.87
Net Debt 262.64
Equity Value -18.77
Shares Outstanding 45.91
Equity Value Per Share -0.41