Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Neoenergia S.A. (NEOE3.SA)

$15.23

-0.12 (-0.78%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 145.60 | 15.23 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 20,517.5225,953.6628,461.3131,98943,16552,174.4963,064.4676,227.4092,137.75111,368.93
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 2,447.324,271.725,264.136,4659,5619,312.3811,256.0913,605.4816,445.2419,877.73
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 1,567.293,143.663,965.194,9927,7847,024.958,491.2210,263.5212,405.7514,995.10
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 880.031,128.061,298.941,4731,7772,287.432,764.873,341.964,039.504,882.63
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 3,940.593,955.194,065.625,1687,2518,523.6410,302.7212,453.1215,052.3618,194.12
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables ----------
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 40.8051.6156.6063.6185.83103.75125.40151.58183.22221.46
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 3,223.572,646.753,049.424,3005,5386,563.087,932.959,588.7311,590.1114,009.22
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -3,802.65-3,990.47-427.06-994-2,998-4,743.94-5,734.11-6,930.94-8,377.58-10,126.17
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 15.23
Beta 0.745
Diluted Shares Outstanding 1,214
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 29.77
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.23%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.232
Total Debt 38,769
Total Equity 18,489.22
Total Capital 57,258.22
Debt Weighting 67.71
Equity Weighting 32.29
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 20,517.5225,953.6628,461.3131,98943,16552,174.4963,064.4676,227.4092,137.75111,368.93
EBITDA 2,447.324,271.725,264.136,4659,5619,312.3811,256.0913,605.4816,445.2419,877.73
EBIT 1,567.293,143.663,965.194,9927,7847,024.958,491.2210,263.5212,405.7514,995.10
Tax Rate 44.33%26.87%23.98%27.00%29.77%30.39%30.39%30.39%30.39%30.39%
EBIAT 872.432,298.853,014.263,644.115,466.494,889.875,910.497,144.148,635.2910,437.66
Depreciation 880.031,128.061,298.941,4731,7772,287.432,764.873,341.964,039.504,882.63
Accounts Receivable ----------
Inventories --10.81-4.99-7.01-22.22-17.92-21.65-26.17-31.64-38.24
Accounts Payable --576.82402.671,250.581,2381,025.081,369.861,655.782,001.382,419.11
Capital Expenditure -3,802.65-3,990.47-427.06-994-2,998-4,743.94-5,734.11-6,930.94-8,377.58-10,126.17
UFCF -2,050.18-1,151.194,283.825,366.675,461.263,440.534,289.465,184.766,266.947,574.99
WACC
PV UFCF 3,270.463,875.894,453.305,116.735,879
SUM PV UFCF 22,595.38

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.20
Free cash flow (t + 1) 7,726.49
Terminal Value 241,452.76
Present Value of Terminal Value 187,393.05

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 209,988.42
Net Debt 33,224
Equity Value 176,764.42
Shares Outstanding 1,214
Equity Value Per Share 145.60