Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

NFI Group Inc. (NFI.TO)

$13.18

+0.38 (+2.97%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 22.40 | 13.18 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 2,381.862,519.022,893.442,419.172,343.792,350.332,356.882,363.452,370.042,376.65
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 320.10305.31255.6420.88165.34198.89199.45200200.56201.12
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 262.50237.51151.07-89.9068.18116.88117.20117.53117.86118.18
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 57.6067.80104.57110.7897.1582.0282.2582.4882.7182.94
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash -10.8228.2355.7777.3241.1941.3041.4241.5341.65
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 411.38421.60549.11445.17417.93419.39420.56421.73422.90424.08
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 359.48424.69672.24657.04567.70500.93502.33503.73505.13506.54
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 319.44366.52404.52338.22327.68328.59329.51330.42331.35332.27
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -53.01-71.04-37.61-25.73-36.26-42.10-42.22-42.34-42.45-42.57
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 13.18
Beta 1.498
Diluted Shares Outstanding 70.04
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -193.91
After-tax Cost of Debt 7.65%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.690
Total Debt 955.85
Total Equity 923.13
Total Capital 1,878.98
Debt Weighting 50.87
Equity Weighting 49.13
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 2,381.862,519.022,893.442,419.172,343.792,350.332,356.882,363.452,370.042,376.65
EBITDA 320.10305.31255.6420.88165.34198.89199.45200200.56201.12
EBIT 262.50237.51151.07-89.9068.18116.88117.20117.53117.86118.18
Tax Rate 20.80%24.07%42.13%-1.05%-193.91%-21.59%-21.59%-21.59%-21.59%-21.59%
EBIAT 207.90180.3487.43-90.85200.40142.11142.51142.91143.31143.70
Depreciation 57.6067.80104.57110.7897.1582.0282.2582.4882.7182.94
Accounts Receivable --10.22-127.51103.9427.24-1.46-1.17-1.17-1.18-1.18
Inventories --65.20-247.5615.2189.3466.77-1.40-1.40-1.40-1.41
Accounts Payable -47.0838-66.30-10.540.910.920.920.920.92
Capital Expenditure -53.01-71.04-37.61-25.73-36.26-42.10-42.22-42.34-42.45-42.57
UFCF 212.50148.75-182.6847.05367.32248.26180.89181.39181.90182.41
WACC
PV UFCF 227.47151.86139.53128.20117.79
SUM PV UFCF 764.85

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.14
Free cash flow (t + 1) 186.05
Terminal Value 2,605.80
Present Value of Terminal Value 1,682.76

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 2,447.61
Net Debt 878.54
Equity Value 1,569.07
Shares Outstanding 70.04
Equity Value Per Share 22.40