Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
NFI Group Inc. (NFI.TO)
$14.23
+0.43 (+3.12%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Revenue | 2,381.86 | 2,519.02 | 2,893.44 | 2,419.17 | 2,343.79 | 2,350.33 | 2,356.88 | 2,363.45 | 2,370.04 | 2,376.65 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 320.10 | 305.31 | 255.64 | 20.88 | 165.34 | 198.89 | 199.45 | 200 | 200.56 | 201.12 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 262.50 | 237.51 | 151.07 | -89.90 | 68.18 | 116.88 | 117.20 | 117.53 | 117.86 | 118.18 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 57.60 | 67.80 | 104.57 | 110.78 | 97.15 | 82.02 | 82.25 | 82.48 | 82.71 | 82.94 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Total Cash | - | 10.82 | 28.23 | 55.77 | 77.32 | 41.19 | 41.30 | 41.42 | 41.53 | 41.65 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 411.38 | 421.60 | 549.11 | 445.17 | 417.93 | 419.39 | 420.56 | 421.73 | 422.90 | 424.08 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 359.48 | 424.69 | 672.24 | 657.04 | 567.70 | 500.93 | 502.33 | 503.73 | 505.13 | 506.54 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 319.44 | 366.52 | 404.52 | 338.22 | 327.68 | 328.59 | 329.51 | 330.42 | 331.35 | 332.27 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -53.01 | -71.04 | -37.61 | -25.73 | -36.26 | -42.10 | -42.22 | -42.34 | -42.45 | -42.57 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 14.23 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.499 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 70.04 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | -193.91 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 7.65% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 9.899 |
Total Debt | 955.85 |
Total Equity | 996.67 |
Total Capital | 1,952.52 |
Debt Weighting | 48.95 |
Equity Weighting | 51.05 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Revenue | 2,381.86 | 2,519.02 | 2,893.44 | 2,419.17 | 2,343.79 | 2,350.33 | 2,356.88 | 2,363.45 | 2,370.04 | 2,376.65 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 320.10 | 305.31 | 255.64 | 20.88 | 165.34 | 198.89 | 199.45 | 200 | 200.56 | 201.12 |
EBIT | 262.50 | 237.51 | 151.07 | -89.90 | 68.18 | 116.88 | 117.20 | 117.53 | 117.86 | 118.18 |
Tax Rate | 20.80% | 24.07% | 42.13% | -1.05% | -193.91% | -21.59% | -21.59% | -21.59% | -21.59% | -21.59% |
EBIAT | 207.90 | 180.34 | 87.43 | -90.85 | 200.40 | 142.11 | 142.51 | 142.91 | 143.31 | 143.70 |
Depreciation | 57.60 | 67.80 | 104.57 | 110.78 | 97.15 | 82.02 | 82.25 | 82.48 | 82.71 | 82.94 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -10.22 | -127.51 | 103.94 | 27.24 | -1.46 | -1.17 | -1.17 | -1.18 | -1.18 |
Inventories | - | -65.20 | -247.56 | 15.21 | 89.34 | 66.77 | -1.40 | -1.40 | -1.40 | -1.41 |
Accounts Payable | - | 47.08 | 38 | -66.30 | -10.54 | 0.91 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 0.92 |
Capital Expenditure | -53.01 | -71.04 | -37.61 | -25.73 | -36.26 | -42.10 | -42.22 | -42.34 | -42.45 | -42.57 |
UFCF | 212.50 | 148.75 | -182.68 | 47.05 | 367.32 | 248.26 | 180.89 | 181.39 | 181.90 | 182.41 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 228.18 | 152.81 | 140.84 | 129.81 | 119.64 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 771.29 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 8.80 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 186.05 |
Terminal Value | 2,736.09 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 1,794.67 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 2,565.96 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 878.54 |
Equity Value | 1,687.43 |
Shares Outstanding | 70.04 |
Equity Value Per Share | 24.09 |