Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

NFI Group Inc. (NFI.TO)

$13.18

+0.38 (+2.97%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 22.40 | 13.18 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	2,381.86	2,519.02	2,893.44	2,419.17	2,343.79	2,350.33	2,356.88	2,363.45	2,370.04	2,376.65
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	320.10	305.31	255.64	20.88	165.34	198.89	199.45	200	200.56	201.12
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	262.50	237.51	151.07	-89.90	68.18	116.88	117.20	117.53	117.86	118.18
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	57.60	67.80	104.57	110.78	97.15	82.02	82.25	82.48	82.71	82.94
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Total Cash	-	10.82	28.23	55.77	77.32	41.19	41.30	41.42	41.53	41.65
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	411.38	421.60	549.11	445.17	417.93	419.39	420.56	421.73	422.90	424.08
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	359.48	424.69	672.24	657.04	567.70	500.93	502.33	503.73	505.13	506.54
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	319.44	366.52	404.52	338.22	327.68	328.59	329.51	330.42	331.35	332.27
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-53.01	-71.04	-37.61	-25.73	-36.26	-42.10	-42.22	-42.34	-42.45	-42.57
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 13.18
Beta	1.498
Diluted Shares Outstanding	70.04
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	-193.91
After-tax Cost of Debt	7.65%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	10.690
Total Debt	955.85
Total Equity	923.13
Total Capital	1,878.98
Debt Weighting	50.87
Equity Weighting	49.13
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	2,381.86	2,519.02	2,893.44	2,419.17	2,343.79	2,350.33	2,356.88	2,363.45	2,370.04	2,376.65
EBITDA	320.10	305.31	255.64	20.88	165.34	198.89	199.45	200	200.56	201.12
EBIT	262.50	237.51	151.07	-89.90	68.18	116.88	117.20	117.53	117.86	118.18
Tax Rate	20.80%	24.07%	42.13%	-1.05%	-193.91%	-21.59%	-21.59%	-21.59%	-21.59%	-21.59%
EBIAT	207.90	180.34	87.43	-90.85	200.40	142.11	142.51	142.91	143.31	143.70
Depreciation	57.60	67.80	104.57	110.78	97.15	82.02	82.25	82.48	82.71	82.94
Accounts Receivable	-	-10.22	-127.51	103.94	27.24	-1.46	-1.17	-1.17	-1.18	-1.18
Inventories	-	-65.20	-247.56	15.21	89.34	66.77	-1.40	-1.40	-1.40	-1.41
Accounts Payable	-	47.08	38	-66.30	-10.54	0.91	0.92	0.92	0.92	0.92
Capital Expenditure	-53.01	-71.04	-37.61	-25.73	-36.26	-42.10	-42.22	-42.34	-42.45	-42.57
UFCF	212.50	148.75	-182.68	47.05	367.32	248.26	180.89	181.39	181.90	182.41
WACC
PV UFCF						227.47	151.86	139.53	128.20	117.79
SUM PV UFCF										764.85

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	9.14
Free cash flow (t + 1)	186.05
Terminal Value	2,605.80
Present Value of Terminal Value	1,682.76

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	2,447.61
Net Debt	878.54
Equity Value	1,569.07
Shares Outstanding	70.04
Equity Value Per Share	22.40