Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

NL Industries, Inc. (NL)

$5.15

+0.05 (+0.98%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 32.02 | 5.15 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 118.20124.20114.50140.80166.60182.66200.27219.57240.74263.95
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 121.6044.4023.5045.8048.3080.6188.3996.91106.25116.49
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 118.1240.7119.6741.9644.3275.3782.6390.6099.33108.91
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 3.483.693.833.843.985.255.756.316.927.58
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 116.26129.73137.04147139.03186.44204.41224.12245.72269.41
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 28.2312.5111.4615.6118.5124.1726.5029.0531.8534.92
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 17.1018.3518.3425.6431.2930.0532.9436.1239.6043.42
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 4.833.442.653.413.545.015.496.026.607.24
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -3.12-3.17-1.74-4.09-3.69-4.32-4.74-5.20-5.70-6.25
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 5.15
Beta 0.639
Diluted Shares Outstanding 48.80
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 13.66
After-tax Cost of Debt 172.67%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.175
Total Debt 0.50
Total Equity 251.32
Total Capital 251.82
Debt Weighting 0.20
Equity Weighting 99.80
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 118.20124.20114.50140.80166.60182.66200.27219.57240.74263.95
EBITDA 121.6044.4023.5045.8048.3080.6188.3996.91106.25116.49
EBIT 118.1240.7119.6741.9644.3275.3782.6390.6099.33108.91
Tax Rate 24.63%9.79%-7.94%15.95%13.66%11.22%11.22%11.22%11.22%11.22%
EBIAT 89.0336.7321.2435.2738.2766.9173.3680.4388.1996.69
Depreciation 3.483.693.833.843.985.255.756.316.927.58
Accounts Receivable -15.721.06-4.15-2.90-5.66-2.33-2.55-2.80-3.07
Inventories --1.250.01-7.31-5.651.24-2.90-3.18-3.48-3.82
Accounts Payable --1.39-0.790.760.131.470.480.530.580.64
Capital Expenditure -3.12-3.17-1.74-4.09-3.69-4.32-4.74-5.20-5.70-6.25
UFCF 89.3950.3323.6024.3230.1364.8969.6376.3583.7191.77
WACC
PV UFCF 60.3660.2661.4662.6863.93
SUM PV UFCF 308.68

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.50
Free cash flow (t + 1) 93.61
Terminal Value 1,702
Present Value of Terminal Value 1,185.54

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 1,494.22
Net Debt -68.37
Equity Value 1,562.59
Shares Outstanding 48.80
Equity Value Per Share 32.02