Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY)

$16.69

-0.65 (-3.75%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -33.05 | 16.69 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 2,3502,0801,810-584.732,662.48-2,077.471,621-1,264.83986.92-770.07
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 2,611.492,022.26642.7320.882,668.45-1,414.821,103.95-861.39672.12-524.44
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 2,584.941,949.89611.18-20.472,643.81-1,413.971,103.29-860.87671.72-524.12
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 26.5572.3631.5641.3624.64-0.850.66-0.520.40-0.32
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 706.591,735.751,850.731,243.701,342.09-222.20173.38-135.28105.56-82.36
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 324.76426.14454.70283.99237.64-82.2164.15-50.0639.06-30.48
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 460.841,153.96939.721,075.18239.08198.98-155.26121.15-94.5373.76
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -11.49-0.38-4.591.48-6.755.27-4.113.21-2.501.95
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 16.69
Beta 1.211
Diluted Shares Outstanding 353.66
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 0.46
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.49%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.542
Total Debt 7,107.95
Total Equity 5,902.67
Total Capital 13,010.62
Debt Weighting 54.63
Equity Weighting 45.37
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 2,3502,0801,810-584.732,662.48-2,077.471,621-1,264.83986.92-770.07
EBITDA 2,611.492,022.26642.7320.882,668.45-1,414.821,103.95-861.39672.12-524.44
EBIT 2,584.941,949.89611.18-20.472,643.81-1,413.971,103.29-860.87671.72-524.12
Tax Rate 0.41%-5.09%0.51%2.94%0.46%-0.15%-0.15%-0.15%-0.15%-0.15%
EBIAT 2,574.452,049.13608.07-19.872,631.64-1,416.141,104.98-862.19672.75-524.93
Depreciation 26.5572.3631.5641.3624.64-0.850.66-0.520.40-0.32
Accounts Receivable --101.39-28.55170.7146.35319.85-146.37114.21-89.1169.53
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable -693.13-214.24135.46-836.10-40.10-354.24276.40-215.67168.28
Capital Expenditure -11.49-0.38-4.59-32,676.86-538.145.27-4.113.21-2.501.95
UFCF 2,589.512,712.86392.24329.151,859.76-1,131.98600.93-468.89365.87-285.48
WACC
PV UFCF -1,065.49532.41-391.03287.19-210.93
SUM PV UFCF -847.84

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.24
Free cash flow (t + 1) -291.19
Terminal Value -6,867.62
Present Value of Terminal Value -5,074.18

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -5,922.02
Net Debt 5,765.86
Equity Value -11,687.88
Shares Outstanding 353.66
Equity Value Per Share -33.05