Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Nokia Oyj (NOK)

$3.7999

+0.08 (+2.15%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 3.31 | 3.7999 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 22,56323,31521,86722,20224,91125,587.0826,281.5026,994.7827,727.4128,479.92
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 1,8182,4742,0503,2533,4582,895.272,973.843,054.553,137.453,222.60
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 3638149182,1582,3181,449.421,488.751,529.161,570.661,613.29
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 1,4551,6601,1321,0951,1401,445.851,485.091,525.391,566.791,609.32
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 7,1166,1718,2759,6049,1629,000.779,245.049,495.959,753.6710,018.38
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 7,0256,8266,8786,7427,8397,865.518,078.988,298.248,523.458,754.77
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 3,1802,9362,2482,3923,2653,113.823,198.323,285.123,374.283,465.86
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 4,7833,7863,1743,6794,7304,478.264,599.794,724.634,852.864,984.56
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -672-690-479-560-601-668.50-686.64-705.28-724.42-744.08
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 3.7,999
Beta 0.650
Diluted Shares Outstanding 5,614.18
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -94.60
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.02%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.579
Total Debt 5,519
Total Equity 21,333.33
Total Capital 26,852.33
Debt Weighting 20.55
Equity Weighting 79.45
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 22,56323,31521,86722,20224,91125,587.0826,281.5026,994.7827,727.4128,479.92
EBITDA 1,8182,4742,0503,2533,4582,895.272,973.843,054.553,137.453,222.60
EBIT 3638149182,1582,3181,449.421,488.751,529.161,570.661,613.29
Tax Rate 5.56%88.46%390.29%15.73%-94.60%81.09%81.09%81.09%81.09%81.09%
EBIAT 342.8393.92-2,664.841,818.504,510.76274.11281.55289.19297.04305.11
Depreciation 1,4551,6601,1321,0951,1401,445.851,485.091,525.391,566.791,609.32
Accounts Receivable -199-52136-1,097-26.51-213.47-219.26-225.21-231.32
Inventories -244688-144-873151.19-84.51-86.80-89.16-91.58
Accounts Payable --997-6125051,051-251.74121.54124.84128.23131.71
Capital Expenditure -672-690-479-560-601-668.50-686.64-705.28-724.42-744.08
UFCF 1,125.83509.92-1,987.842,850.504,130.76924.40903.57928.09953.28979.15
WACC
PV UFCF 865.14791.43760.79731.34703.03
SUM PV UFCF 3,851.73

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.85
Free cash flow (t + 1) 998.73
Terminal Value 20,592.38
Present Value of Terminal Value 14,785.43

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 18,637.16
Net Debt 52
Equity Value 18,585.16
Shares Outstanding 5,614.18
Equity Value Per Share 3.31