Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Nokia Oyj (NOK)
$3.7999
+0.08 (+2.15%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 22,563 | 23,315 | 21,867 | 22,202 | 24,911 | 25,587.08 | 26,281.50 | 26,994.78 | 27,727.41 | 28,479.92 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 1,818 | 2,474 | 2,050 | 3,253 | 3,458 | 2,895.27 | 2,973.84 | 3,054.55 | 3,137.45 | 3,222.60 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 363 | 814 | 918 | 2,158 | 2,318 | 1,449.42 | 1,488.75 | 1,529.16 | 1,570.66 | 1,613.29 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 1,455 | 1,660 | 1,132 | 1,095 | 1,140 | 1,445.85 | 1,485.09 | 1,525.39 | 1,566.79 | 1,609.32 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 7,116 | 6,171 | 8,275 | 9,604 | 9,162 | 9,000.77 | 9,245.04 | 9,495.95 | 9,753.67 | 10,018.38 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 7,025 | 6,826 | 6,878 | 6,742 | 7,839 | 7,865.51 | 8,078.98 | 8,298.24 | 8,523.45 | 8,754.77 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 3,180 | 2,936 | 2,248 | 2,392 | 3,265 | 3,113.82 | 3,198.32 | 3,285.12 | 3,374.28 | 3,465.86 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 4,783 | 3,786 | 3,174 | 3,679 | 4,730 | 4,478.26 | 4,599.79 | 4,724.63 | 4,852.86 | 4,984.56 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -672 | -690 | -479 | -560 | -601 | -668.50 | -686.64 | -705.28 | -724.42 | -744.08 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 3.7,999 |
---|---|
Beta | 0.650 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 5,614.18 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | -94.60 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 4.02% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 7.579 |
Total Debt | 5,519 |
Total Equity | 21,333.33 |
Total Capital | 26,852.33 |
Debt Weighting | 20.55 |
Equity Weighting | 79.45 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 22,563 | 23,315 | 21,867 | 22,202 | 24,911 | 25,587.08 | 26,281.50 | 26,994.78 | 27,727.41 | 28,479.92 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 1,818 | 2,474 | 2,050 | 3,253 | 3,458 | 2,895.27 | 2,973.84 | 3,054.55 | 3,137.45 | 3,222.60 |
EBIT | 363 | 814 | 918 | 2,158 | 2,318 | 1,449.42 | 1,488.75 | 1,529.16 | 1,570.66 | 1,613.29 |
Tax Rate | 5.56% | 88.46% | 390.29% | 15.73% | -94.60% | 81.09% | 81.09% | 81.09% | 81.09% | 81.09% |
EBIAT | 342.83 | 93.92 | -2,664.84 | 1,818.50 | 4,510.76 | 274.11 | 281.55 | 289.19 | 297.04 | 305.11 |
Depreciation | 1,455 | 1,660 | 1,132 | 1,095 | 1,140 | 1,445.85 | 1,485.09 | 1,525.39 | 1,566.79 | 1,609.32 |
Accounts Receivable | - | 199 | -52 | 136 | -1,097 | -26.51 | -213.47 | -219.26 | -225.21 | -231.32 |
Inventories | - | 244 | 688 | -144 | -873 | 151.19 | -84.51 | -86.80 | -89.16 | -91.58 |
Accounts Payable | - | -997 | -612 | 505 | 1,051 | -251.74 | 121.54 | 124.84 | 128.23 | 131.71 |
Capital Expenditure | -672 | -690 | -479 | -560 | -601 | -668.50 | -686.64 | -705.28 | -724.42 | -744.08 |
UFCF | 1,125.83 | 509.92 | -1,987.84 | 2,850.50 | 4,130.76 | 924.40 | 903.57 | 928.09 | 953.28 | 979.15 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 865.14 | 791.43 | 760.79 | 731.34 | 703.03 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 3,851.73 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 6.85 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 998.73 |
Terminal Value | 20,592.38 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 14,785.43 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 18,637.16 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 52 |
Equity Value | 18,585.16 |
Shares Outstanding | 5,614.18 |
Equity Value Per Share | 3.31 |