Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Nokia Oyj (NOK)

$3.7999

+0.08 (+2.15%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 3.31 | 3.7999 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	22,563	23,315	21,867	22,202	24,911	25,587.08	26,281.50	26,994.78	27,727.41	28,479.92
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	1,818	2,474	2,050	3,253	3,458	2,895.27	2,973.84	3,054.55	3,137.45	3,222.60
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	363	814	918	2,158	2,318	1,449.42	1,488.75	1,529.16	1,570.66	1,613.29
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	1,455	1,660	1,132	1,095	1,140	1,445.85	1,485.09	1,525.39	1,566.79	1,609.32
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	7,116	6,171	8,275	9,604	9,162	9,000.77	9,245.04	9,495.95	9,753.67	10,018.38
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	7,025	6,826	6,878	6,742	7,839	7,865.51	8,078.98	8,298.24	8,523.45	8,754.77
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	3,180	2,936	2,248	2,392	3,265	3,113.82	3,198.32	3,285.12	3,374.28	3,465.86
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	4,783	3,786	3,174	3,679	4,730	4,478.26	4,599.79	4,724.63	4,852.86	4,984.56
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-672	-690	-479	-560	-601	-668.50	-686.64	-705.28	-724.42	-744.08
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 3.7,999
Beta	0.650
Diluted Shares Outstanding	5,614.18
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	-94.60
After-tax Cost of Debt	4.02%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	7.579
Total Debt	5,519
Total Equity	21,333.33
Total Capital	26,852.33
Debt Weighting	20.55
Equity Weighting	79.45
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	22,563	23,315	21,867	22,202	24,911	25,587.08	26,281.50	26,994.78	27,727.41	28,479.92
EBITDA	1,818	2,474	2,050	3,253	3,458	2,895.27	2,973.84	3,054.55	3,137.45	3,222.60
EBIT	363	814	918	2,158	2,318	1,449.42	1,488.75	1,529.16	1,570.66	1,613.29
Tax Rate	5.56%	88.46%	390.29%	15.73%	-94.60%	81.09%	81.09%	81.09%	81.09%	81.09%
EBIAT	342.83	93.92	-2,664.84	1,818.50	4,510.76	274.11	281.55	289.19	297.04	305.11
Depreciation	1,455	1,660	1,132	1,095	1,140	1,445.85	1,485.09	1,525.39	1,566.79	1,609.32
Accounts Receivable	-	199	-52	136	-1,097	-26.51	-213.47	-219.26	-225.21	-231.32
Inventories	-	244	688	-144	-873	151.19	-84.51	-86.80	-89.16	-91.58
Accounts Payable	-	-997	-612	505	1,051	-251.74	121.54	124.84	128.23	131.71
Capital Expenditure	-672	-690	-479	-560	-601	-668.50	-686.64	-705.28	-724.42	-744.08
UFCF	1,125.83	509.92	-1,987.84	2,850.50	4,130.76	924.40	903.57	928.09	953.28	979.15
WACC
PV UFCF						865.14	791.43	760.79	731.34	703.03
SUM PV UFCF										3,851.73

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	6.85
Free cash flow (t + 1)	998.73
Terminal Value	20,592.38
Present Value of Terminal Value	14,785.43

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	18,637.16
Net Debt	52
Equity Value	18,585.16
Shares Outstanding	5,614.18
Equity Value Per Share	3.31