Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
NanoString Technologies, Inc. (NSTG)
$14.44
-0.96 (-6.23%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Revenue | 114.91 | 106.73 | 125.57 | 117.32 | 118.87 | 120.44 | 122.03 | 123.64 | 125.27 | 126.93 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | -33.85 | -65.65 | -27.02 | -88.68 | -55.89 | -56.63 | -57.38 | -58.13 | -58.90 | -59.68 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | -37.21 | -69.72 | -31.94 | -94.42 | -61.76 | -61.56 | -62.37 | -63.20 | -64.03 | -64.88 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 3.35 | 4.07 | 4.92 | 5.74 | 5.87 | 4.93 | 5 | 5.06 | 5.13 | 5.20 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Total Cash | 77.55 | 94 | 156.85 | 440.73 | 348.89 | 228.75 | 231.77 | 234.83 | 237.94 | 241.08 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 19.56 | 17.28 | 27.15 | 31.10 | 40.13 | 27.73 | 28.09 | 28.46 | 28.84 | 29.22 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 20.06 | 13.17 | 19.78 | 22.96 | 31.49 | 22.07 | 22.36 | 22.65 | 22.95 | 23.26 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 4.09 | 8.64 | 10.28 | 5.31 | 14.28 | 8.76 | 8.88 | 9 | 9.12 | 9.24 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -4.28 | -4.49 | -7.88 | -7.46 | -8.65 | -6.71 | -6.79 | -6.88 | -6.98 | -7.07 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 14.44 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.997 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 45.30 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | -0.15 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.98% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 12.189 |
Total Debt | 251.73 |
Total Equity | 654.12 |
Total Capital | 905.84 |
Debt Weighting | 27.79 |
Equity Weighting | 72.21 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Revenue | 114.91 | 106.73 | 125.57 | 117.32 | 118.87 | 120.44 | 122.03 | 123.64 | 125.27 | 126.93 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | -33.85 | -65.65 | -27.02 | -88.68 | -55.89 | -56.63 | -57.38 | -58.13 | -58.90 | -59.68 |
EBIT | -37.21 | -69.72 | -31.94 | -94.42 | -61.76 | -61.56 | -62.37 | -63.20 | -64.03 | -64.88 |
Tax Rate | -0.47% | -0.32% | -0.67% | -0.23% | -0.15% | -0.37% | -0.37% | -0.37% | -0.37% | -0.37% |
EBIAT | -37.38 | -69.95 | -32.15 | -94.63 | -61.85 | -61.79 | -62.60 | -63.43 | -64.27 | -65.12 |
Depreciation | 3.35 | 4.07 | 4.92 | 5.74 | 5.87 | 4.93 | 5 | 5.06 | 5.13 | 5.20 |
Accounts Receivable | - | 2.28 | -9.87 | -3.95 | -9.03 | 12.40 | -0.37 | -0.37 | -0.38 | -0.38 |
Inventories | - | 6.88 | -6.61 | -3.18 | -8.53 | 9.42 | -0.29 | -0.30 | -0.30 | -0.30 |
Accounts Payable | - | 4.54 | 1.65 | -4.97 | 8.97 | -5.52 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.12 |
Capital Expenditure | -4.28 | -4.49 | -7.88 | -7.46 | -8.65 | -6.71 | -6.79 | -6.88 | -6.98 | -7.07 |
UFCF | -38.31 | -56.65 | -49.95 | -108.45 | -73.21 | -47.26 | -64.94 | -65.80 | -66.67 | -67.55 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | -73.21 | -43.11 | -54.03 | -49.94 | -46.15 | -42.66 | ||||
SUM PV UFCF | -235.89 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 9.63 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | -68.90 |
Terminal Value | -903.03 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | -570.24 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | -806.13 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 144.66 |
Equity Value | -950.78 |
Shares Outstanding | 45.30 |
Equity Value Per Share | -20.99 |