Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
NanoString Technologies, Inc. (NSTG)
$11.93
-1.62 (-11.96%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 114.91 | 106.73 | 125.57 | 117.32 | 118.87 | 120.44 | 122.03 | 123.64 | 125.27 | 126.93 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | -33.85 | -65.65 | -27.02 | -88.68 | -55.89 | -56.63 | -57.38 | -58.13 | -58.90 | -59.68 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | -37.21 | -69.72 | -31.94 | -94.42 | -61.76 | -61.56 | -62.37 | -63.20 | -64.03 | -64.88 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 3.35 | 4.07 | 4.92 | 5.74 | 5.87 | 4.93 | 5 | 5.06 | 5.13 | 5.20 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 77.55 | 94 | 156.85 | 440.73 | 348.89 | 228.75 | 231.77 | 234.83 | 237.94 | 241.08 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 19.56 | 17.28 | 27.15 | 31.10 | 40.13 | 27.73 | 28.09 | 28.46 | 28.84 | 29.22 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 20.06 | 13.17 | 19.78 | 22.96 | 31.49 | 22.07 | 22.36 | 22.65 | 22.95 | 23.26 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 4.09 | 8.64 | 10.28 | 5.31 | 14.28 | 8.76 | 8.88 | 9 | 9.12 | 9.24 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -4.28 | -4.49 | -7.88 | -7.46 | -8.65 | -6.71 | -6.79 | -6.88 | -6.98 | -7.07 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 11.93 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.861 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 45.30 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | -0.15 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.98% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 12.669 |
| Total Debt | 251.73 |
| Total Equity | 540.42 |
| Total Capital | 792.14 |
| Debt Weighting | 31.78 |
| Equity Weighting | 68.22 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 114.91 | 106.73 | 125.57 | 117.32 | 118.87 | 120.44 | 122.03 | 123.64 | 125.27 | 126.93 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | -33.85 | -65.65 | -27.02 | -88.68 | -55.89 | -56.63 | -57.38 | -58.13 | -58.90 | -59.68 |
| EBIT | -37.21 | -69.72 | -31.94 | -94.42 | -61.76 | -61.56 | -62.37 | -63.20 | -64.03 | -64.88 |
| Tax Rate | -0.47% | -0.32% | -0.67% | -0.23% | -0.15% | -0.37% | -0.37% | -0.37% | -0.37% | -0.37% |
| EBIAT | -37.38 | -69.95 | -32.15 | -94.63 | -61.85 | -61.79 | -62.60 | -63.43 | -64.27 | -65.12 |
| Depreciation | 3.35 | 4.07 | 4.92 | 5.74 | 5.87 | 4.93 | 5 | 5.06 | 5.13 | 5.20 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 2.28 | -9.87 | -3.95 | -9.03 | 12.40 | -0.37 | -0.37 | -0.38 | -0.38 |
| Inventories | - | 6.88 | -6.61 | -3.18 | -8.53 | 9.42 | -0.29 | -0.30 | -0.30 | -0.30 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 4.54 | 1.65 | -4.97 | 8.97 | -5.52 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Capital Expenditure | -4.28 | -4.49 | -7.88 | -7.46 | -8.65 | -6.71 | -6.79 | -6.88 | -6.98 | -7.07 |
| UFCF | -38.31 | -56.65 | -49.95 | -108.45 | -73.21 | -47.26 | -64.94 | -65.80 | -66.67 | -67.55 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -73.21 | -43.12 | -54.07 | -49.99 | -46.22 | -42.73 | ||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -236.14 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 9.59 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -68.90 |
| Terminal Value | -907.79 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -574.29 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -810.43 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 144.66 |
| Equity Value | -955.09 |
| Shares Outstanding | 45.30 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -21.08 |