Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
NetScout Systems, Inc. (NTCT)
$27.79
-0.73 (-2.56%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 986.79 | 909.92 | 891.82 | 831.28 | 855.58 | 826.39 | 798.20 | 770.97 | 744.67 | 719.27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 147.48 | 71.11 | 138.63 | 139.01 | 146.72 | 119.29 | 115.22 | 111.29 | 107.49 | 103.83 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | -6.03 | -66.77 | 22.52 | 33.18 | 50.94 | 7.47 | 7.22 | 6.97 | 6.74 | 6.51 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 153.50 | 137.88 | 116.10 | 105.83 | 95.78 | 111.82 | 108 | 104.32 | 100.76 | 97.32 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 447.76 | 485.98 | 386.46 | 476.45 | 703.20 | 465.46 | 449.58 | 434.25 | 419.44 | 405.13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 213.44 | 235.32 | 213.51 | 197.72 | 148.25 | 186.01 | 179.67 | 173.54 | 167.62 | 161.90 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 34.77 | 23.35 | 21.51 | 19.37 | 21.24 | 22.01 | 21.25 | 20.53 | 19.83 | 19.15 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 30.13 | 24.58 | 20 | 17.96 | 21.96 | 21.03 | 20.32 | 19.62 | 18.95 | 18.31 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -16.59 | -23.53 | -19.92 | -16.52 | -10.40 | -16.04 | -15.49 | -14.96 | -14.45 | -13.96 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 27.79 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.702 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 75.08 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 16.36 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 1.62% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 6.811 |
| Total Debt | 415.34 |
| Total Equity | 2,086.58 |
| Total Capital | 2,501.92 |
| Debt Weighting | 16.60 |
| Equity Weighting | 83.40 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 986.79 | 909.92 | 891.82 | 831.28 | 855.58 | 826.39 | 798.20 | 770.97 | 744.67 | 719.27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 147.48 | 71.11 | 138.63 | 139.01 | 146.72 | 119.29 | 115.22 | 111.29 | 107.49 | 103.83 |
| EBIT | -6.03 | -66.77 | 22.52 | 33.18 | 50.94 | 7.47 | 7.22 | 6.97 | 6.74 | 6.51 |
| Tax Rate | 527.74% | 21.08% | 243.14% | 13.24% | 16.36% | 164.31% | 164.31% | 164.31% | 164.31% | 164.31% |
| EBIAT | 25.78 | -52.69 | -32.24 | 28.79 | 42.61 | -4.81 | -4.64 | -4.48 | -4.33 | -4.18 |
| Depreciation | 153.50 | 137.88 | 116.10 | 105.83 | 95.78 | 111.82 | 108 | 104.32 | 100.76 | 97.32 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -21.88 | 21.80 | 15.80 | 49.47 | -37.77 | 6.35 | 6.13 | 5.92 | 5.72 |
| Inventories | - | 11.42 | 1.84 | 2.13 | -1.86 | -0.77 | 0.75 | 0.73 | 0.70 | 0.68 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -5.55 | -4.58 | -2.04 | 3.99 | -0.93 | -0.72 | -0.69 | -0.67 | -0.65 |
| Capital Expenditure | -16.59 | -23.53 | -19.92 | -16.52 | -10.40 | -16.04 | -15.49 | -14.96 | -14.45 | -13.96 |
| UFCF | 162.68 | 45.65 | 83.02 | 133.99 | 179.59 | 51.51 | 94.25 | 91.03 | 87.93 | 84.93 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 48.62 | 83.96 | 76.54 | 69.78 | 63.61 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 342.50 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 5.95 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 86.62 |
| Terminal Value | 2,193.03 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 1,642.63 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 1,985.13 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -220.82 |
| Equity Value | 2,205.95 |
| Shares Outstanding | 75.08 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 29.38 |