Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
NETGEAR, Inc. (NTGR)
$19.39
-0.28 (-1.42%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 1,058.82 | 998.76 | 1,255.20 | 1,168.07 | 932.47 | 915.90 | 899.63 | 883.64 | 867.94 | 852.52 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 39.55 | 51.52 | 90.17 | 79.57 | -45.88 | 32.91 | 32.33 | 31.75 | 31.19 | 30.64 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 20.70 | 32.11 | 71.24 | 65.66 | -55.95 | 19.17 | 18.83 | 18.50 | 18.17 | 17.84 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 18.85 | 19.41 | 18.93 | 13.91 | 10.07 | 13.74 | 13.50 | 13.26 | 13.02 | 12.79 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 274.36 | 195.71 | 353.32 | 271.52 | 227.43 | 222.18 | 218.23 | 214.35 | 210.55 | 206.80 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 303.67 | 277.17 | 337.05 | 261.16 | 277.48 | 248.03 | 243.62 | 239.29 | 235.04 | 230.86 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 243.87 | 235.49 | 172.11 | 315.67 | 299.61 | 218.86 | 214.97 | 211.15 | 207.40 | 203.71 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 139.75 | 80.53 | 90.90 | 73.73 | 85.55 | 80.58 | 79.15 | 77.74 | 76.36 | 75 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -12.25 | -14.23 | -10.30 | -9.86 | -5.76 | -8.91 | -8.75 | -8.60 | -8.44 | -8.29 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 19.39 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.752 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 31 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 15.89 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 4.21% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 7.188 |
| Total Debt | 34.09 |
| Total Equity | 601.13 |
| Total Capital | 635.21 |
| Debt Weighting | 5.37 |
| Equity Weighting | 94.63 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 1,058.82 | 998.76 | 1,255.20 | 1,168.07 | 932.47 | 915.90 | 899.63 | 883.64 | 867.94 | 852.52 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 39.55 | 51.52 | 90.17 | 79.57 | -45.88 | 32.91 | 32.33 | 31.75 | 31.19 | 30.64 |
| EBIT | 20.70 | 32.11 | 71.24 | 65.66 | -55.95 | 19.17 | 18.83 | 18.50 | 18.17 | 17.84 |
| Tax Rate | 121.21% | 12.78% | 17.67% | 24.60% | 15.89% | 38.43% | 38.43% | 38.43% | 38.43% | 38.43% |
| EBIAT | -4.39 | 28.01 | 58.65 | 49.51 | -47.06 | 11.80 | 11.59 | 11.39 | 11.19 | 10.99 |
| Depreciation | 18.85 | 19.41 | 18.93 | 13.91 | 10.07 | 13.74 | 13.50 | 13.26 | 13.02 | 12.79 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 26.50 | -59.88 | 75.89 | -16.33 | 29.46 | 4.41 | 4.33 | 4.25 | 4.18 |
| Inventories | - | 8.38 | 63.38 | -143.55 | 16.05 | 80.75 | 3.89 | 3.82 | 3.75 | 3.69 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -59.22 | 10.37 | -17.17 | 11.82 | -4.97 | -1.43 | -1.41 | -1.38 | -1.36 |
| Capital Expenditure | -12.25 | -14.23 | -10.30 | -9.86 | -5.76 | -8.91 | -8.75 | -8.60 | -8.44 | -8.29 |
| UFCF | 2.21 | 8.85 | 81.15 | -31.29 | -31.20 | 121.88 | 23.20 | 22.79 | 22.39 | 21.99 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 113.88 | 20.26 | 18.59 | 17.06 | 15.66 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 185.44 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 7.03 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 22.43 |
| Terminal Value | 445.92 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 317.49 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 502.93 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -112.42 |
| Equity Value | 615.34 |
| Shares Outstanding | 31 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 19.85 |