Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
NETGEAR, Inc. (NTGR)
$20.17
+0.44 (+2.23%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 1,406.92 | 1,058.82 | 998.76 | 1,255.20 | 1,168.07 | 1,133.97 | 1,100.85 | 1,068.71 | 1,037.50 | 1,007.21 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 118.92 | 39.55 | 51.52 | 90.17 | 79.57 | 71.08 | 69 | 66.99 | 65.03 | 63.13 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 92.83 | 20.70 | 32.11 | 71.24 | 65.66 | 52.31 | 50.78 | 49.30 | 47.86 | 46.46 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 26.09 | 18.85 | 19.41 | 18.93 | 13.91 | 18.77 | 18.22 | 17.69 | 17.17 | 16.67 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 329.80 | 274.36 | 195.71 | 353.32 | 271.52 | 272.93 | 264.96 | 257.22 | 249.71 | 242.42 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 412.80 | 303.67 | 277.17 | 337.05 | 261.16 | 306.13 | 297.19 | 288.51 | 280.09 | 271.91 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 245.89 | 243.87 | 235.49 | 172.11 | 315.67 | 237.73 | 230.79 | 224.05 | 217.51 | 211.16 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 111.91 | 139.75 | 80.53 | 90.90 | 73.73 | 97 | 94.17 | 91.42 | 88.75 | 86.16 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -13.67 | -12.25 | -14.23 | -10.30 | -9.86 | -11.84 | -11.49 | -11.15 | -10.83 | -10.51 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 20.17 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.785 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 31 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 24.60 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 0.42% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 7.235 |
| Total Debt | 27.79 |
| Total Equity | 625.31 |
| Total Capital | 653.10 |
| Debt Weighting | 4.25 |
| Equity Weighting | 95.75 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 1,406.92 | 1,058.82 | 998.76 | 1,255.20 | 1,168.07 | 1,133.97 | 1,100.85 | 1,068.71 | 1,037.50 | 1,007.21 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 118.92 | 39.55 | 51.52 | 90.17 | 79.57 | 71.08 | 69 | 66.99 | 65.03 | 63.13 |
| EBIT | 92.83 | 20.70 | 32.11 | 71.24 | 65.66 | 52.31 | 50.78 | 49.30 | 47.86 | 46.46 |
| Tax Rate | 78.57% | 121.21% | 12.78% | 17.67% | 24.60% | 50.97% | 50.97% | 50.97% | 50.97% | 50.97% |
| EBIAT | 19.89 | -4.39 | 28.01 | 58.65 | 49.51 | 25.65 | 24.90 | 24.17 | 23.47 | 22.78 |
| Depreciation | 26.09 | 18.85 | 19.41 | 18.93 | 13.91 | 18.77 | 18.22 | 17.69 | 17.17 | 16.67 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 109.13 | 26.50 | -59.88 | 75.89 | -44.97 | 8.94 | 8.68 | 8.42 | 8.18 |
| Inventories | - | 2.02 | 8.38 | 63.38 | -143.55 | 77.93 | 6.94 | 6.74 | 6.54 | 6.35 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 27.83 | -59.22 | 10.37 | -17.17 | 23.27 | -2.83 | -2.75 | -2.67 | -2.59 |
| Capital Expenditure | -13.67 | -12.25 | -14.23 | -10.30 | -9.86 | -11.84 | -11.49 | -11.15 | -10.83 | -10.51 |
| UFCF | 32.31 | 141.20 | 8.85 | 81.15 | -31.29 | 88.82 | 44.68 | 43.38 | 42.11 | 40.88 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 83.04 | 39.06 | 35.46 | 32.19 | 29.22 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 218.96 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 6.95 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 41.70 |
| Terminal Value | 842.38 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 602.01 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 820.97 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -235.98 |
| Equity Value | 1,056.96 |
| Shares Outstanding | 31 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 34.09 |