Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Nutanix, Inc. (NTNX)
$35.4201
+0.52 (+1.49%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
| Revenue | 1,236.14 | 1,307.68 | 1,394.36 | 1,580.80 | 1,862.90 | 2,066.10 | 2,291.47 | 2,541.42 | 2,818.63 | 3,126.09 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | -520.43 | -735.15 | -566.41 | -369.49 | -130.76 | -699.72 | -776.04 | -860.69 | -954.58 | -1,058.70 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | -598.04 | -828.92 | -660.78 | -457.44 | -207.15 | -823.20 | -912.99 | -1,012.58 | -1,123.03 | -1,245.53 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 77.61 | 93.77 | 94.37 | 87.95 | 76.39 | 123.48 | 136.95 | 151.89 | 168.45 | 186.83 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
| Total Cash | 908.83 | 719.78 | 1,213.73 | 1,324.28 | 1,437.39 | 1,555.94 | 1,725.66 | 1,913.90 | 2,122.67 | 2,354.20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 245.47 | 242.52 | 180.78 | 124.56 | 157.25 | 279.71 | 310.22 | 344.05 | 381.58 | 423.21 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 46.24 | 68.69 | 110.94 | 171.71 | 120 | 141.54 | 156.98 | 174.11 | 193.10 | 214.16 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 74.05 | 54.03 | 47.06 | 44.93 | 29.93 | 74.15 | 82.24 | 91.21 | 101.16 | 112.20 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -118.45 | -89.49 | -58.65 | -49.06 | -65.40 | -112.59 | -124.87 | -138.49 | -153.59 | -170.35 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 35.4,201 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.297 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 233.25 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | -8.98 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 5.00% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 10.646 |
| Total Debt | 1,316.67 |
| Total Equity | 8,261.63 |
| Total Capital | 9,578.30 |
| Debt Weighting | 13.75 |
| Equity Weighting | 86.25 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
| Revenue | 1,236.14 | 1,307.68 | 1,394.36 | 1,580.80 | 1,862.90 | 2,066.10 | 2,291.47 | 2,541.42 | 2,818.63 | 3,126.09 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | -520.43 | -735.15 | -566.41 | -369.49 | -130.76 | -699.72 | -776.04 | -860.69 | -954.58 | -1,058.70 |
| EBIT | -598.04 | -828.92 | -660.78 | -457.44 | -207.15 | -823.20 | -912.99 | -1,012.58 | -1,123.03 | -1,245.53 |
| Tax Rate | -1.32% | -2.07% | -1.82% | -2.48% | -8.98% | -3.33% | -3.33% | -3.33% | -3.33% | -3.33% |
| EBIAT | -605.96 | -846.04 | -672.81 | -468.77 | -225.75 | -850.63 | -943.42 | -1,046.33 | -1,160.46 | -1,287.04 |
| Depreciation | 77.61 | 93.77 | 94.37 | 87.95 | 76.39 | 123.48 | 136.95 | 151.89 | 168.45 | 186.83 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 2.96 | 61.74 | 56.22 | -32.69 | -122.46 | -30.51 | -33.84 | -37.53 | -41.62 |
| Inventories | - | -22.46 | -42.24 | -60.78 | 51.71 | -21.54 | -15.44 | -17.12 | -18.99 | -21.06 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -20.02 | -6.97 | -2.13 | -15 | 44.23 | 8.09 | 8.97 | 9.95 | 11.03 |
| Capital Expenditure | -118.45 | -89.49 | -58.65 | -49.06 | -65.40 | -112.59 | -124.87 | -138.49 | -153.59 | -170.35 |
| UFCF | -646.80 | -881.27 | -624.56 | -436.55 | -210.75 | -939.51 | -969.20 | -1,074.92 | -1,192.17 | -1,322.21 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -855.11 | -802.89 | -810.47 | -818.13 | -825.86 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -4,112.45 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 9.87 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -1,348.65 |
| Terminal Value | -17,136.64 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -10,703.61 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -14,816.06 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 803.74 |
| Equity Value | -15,619.80 |
| Shares Outstanding | 233.25 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -66.97 |