Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS)

$87.25

+2.96 (+3.51%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 363.64 | 87.25 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	5,220.80	5,298.60	5,337.70	6,464.50	6,761.20	7,233.27	7,738.29	8,278.58	8,856.59	9,474.96
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	3,117.40	3,225	2,328.20	2,549.50	2,816	3,548.38	3,796.13	4,061.18	4,344.73	4,648.08
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	2,656.50	2,766.10	1,827.90	2,033.90	2,756.80	3,031.74	3,243.41	3,469.87	3,712.13	3,971.31
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	460.90	458.90	500.30	515.60	59.20	516.65	552.72	591.31	632.60	676.76
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	75,814.80	82,098.60	83,458	83,214.80	73,325.60	100,353.32	107,360	114,855.88	122,875.12	131,454.27
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	1,646.10	845.70	1,171.60	1,952.20	1,698.30	1,804.80	1,930.81	2,065.62	2,209.85	2,364.14
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-506	-599.80	-560.40	-515.10	-667.31	-713.91	-763.75	-817.08	-874.12	-935.16
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 87.25
Beta	1.101
Diluted Shares Outstanding	209.01
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	24.36
After-tax Cost of Debt	6.05%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	8.801
Total Debt	12,382.70
Total Equity	18,235.95
Total Capital	30,618.65
Debt Weighting	40.44
Equity Weighting	59.56
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	5,220.80	5,298.60	5,337.70	6,464.50	6,761.20	7,233.27	7,738.29	8,278.58	8,856.59	9,474.96
EBITDA	3,117.40	3,225	2,328.20	2,549.50	2,816	3,548.38	3,796.13	4,061.18	4,344.73	4,648.08
EBIT	2,656.50	2,766.10	1,827.90	2,033.90	2,756.80	3,031.74	3,243.41	3,469.87	3,712.13	3,971.31
Tax Rate	20.50%	23.24%	25.70%	23.12%	24.36%	23.39%	23.39%	23.39%	23.39%	23.39%
EBIAT	2,111.85	2,123.13	1,358.12	1,563.60	2,085.20	2,322.72	2,484.89	2,658.39	2,843.99	3,042.56
Depreciation	460.90	458.90	500.30	515.60	59.20	516.65	552.72	591.31	632.60	676.76
Accounts Receivable	-	800.40	-325.90	-780.60	253.90	-106.50	-126.01	-134.81	-144.22	-154.29
Inventories	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Accounts Payable	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Capital Expenditure	-506	-599.80	-560.40	-515.10	-667.31	-713.91	-763.75	-817.08	-874.12	-935.16
UFCF	2,066.75	2,782.63	972.12	783.50	1,730.98	2,018.96	2,147.85	2,297.81	2,458.25	2,629.88
WACC
PV UFCF						1,874.79	1,852.05	1,839.88	1,827.78	1,815.76
SUM PV UFCF										9,210.25

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	7.69
Free cash flow (t + 1)	2,682.48
Terminal Value	47,143.72
Present Value of Terminal Value	32,549.70

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	41,759.95
Net Debt	-34,243
Equity Value	76,002.95
Shares Outstanding	209.01
Equity Value Per Share	363.64