Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Novavax, Inc. (NVAX)

$21

-1.44 (-6.42%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -12,925,080.47 | 21 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 31.1834.2918.66475.601,146.298,465.1062,512.96461,644.733,409,146.5625,175,810.70
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -159.88-164.40-114.83-398.23-1,680.75-31,117.27-229,794.30-1,696,981.25-12,531,839.86-92,544,929.45
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -169.70-172.56-120.51-403.11-1,693.41-32,604.26-240,775.43-1,778,074.55-13,130,696.37-96,967,355.41
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 9.828.165.684.8912.661,486.9910,981.1381,093.30598,856.514,422,425.96
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 157.3092.1378.82711.051,515.1225,011.40184,703.781,363,997.5210,072,826.9874,385,650.68
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables --7.50262.01454.993,808.5228,125.07207,697.571,533,801.6611,326,793.86
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 13.0811.977.17182.85440.713,254.5524,034.12177,486.761,310,701.389,679,246.51
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 5.619.302.9154.33127.051,409.1210,406.0476,846.35567,493.664,190,818.07
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -4.19-1.37-1.86-54.62-57.49-743.04-5,487.21-40,521.87-299,245.27-2,209,861.67
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 21
Beta 1.641
Diluted Shares Outstanding 74.40
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -1.70
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.65%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 11.444
Total Debt 453.99
Total Equity 1,562.40
Total Capital 2,016.39
Debt Weighting 22.52
Equity Weighting 77.48
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 31.1834.2918.66475.601,146.298,465.1062,512.96461,644.733,409,146.5625,175,810.70
EBITDA -159.88-164.40-114.83-398.23-1,680.75-31,117.27-229,794.30-1,696,981.25-12,531,839.86-92,544,929.45
EBIT -169.70-172.56-120.51-403.11-1,693.41-32,604.26-240,775.43-1,778,074.55-13,130,696.37-96,967,355.41
Tax Rate 0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-1.70%-0.34%-0.34%-0.34%-0.34%-0.34%
EBIAT -169.70-172.56-120.51-403.11-1,722.26-32,715.38-241,595.98-1,784,134.09-13,175,444.72-97,297,812.32
Depreciation 9.828.165.684.8912.661,486.9910,981.1381,093.30598,856.514,422,425.96
Accounts Receivable ----254.51-192.98-3,353.52-24,316.55-179,572.50-1,326,104.09-9,792,992.19
Inventories -1.114.80-175.68-257.86-2,813.84-20,779.57-153,452.64-1,133,214.62-8,368,545.13
Accounts Payable -3.69-6.3951.4272.721,282.078,996.9266,440.31490,647.323,623,324.41
Capital Expenditure -4.19-1.37-1.86-54.62-57.49-743.04-5,487.21-40,521.87-299,245.27-2,209,861.67
UFCF -164.07-160.97-118.28-831.62-2,145.21-36,856.71-272,201.26-2,010,147.49-14,844,504.88-109,623,460.94
WACC
PV UFCF -33,533.54-225,328.29-1,513,966.62-10,172,246.73-68,346,687.34
SUM PV UFCF -80,291,762.51

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.91
Free cash flow (t + 1) -111,815,930.16
Terminal Value -1,413,602,151.19
Present Value of Terminal Value -881,335,285.50

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -961,627,048.02
Net Debt -1,061.13
Equity Value -961,625,986.89
Shares Outstanding 74.40
Equity Value Per Share -12,925,080.47