Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Novavax, Inc. (NVAX)

$5.39

+0.45 (+9.11%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -3,034,019.81 | 5.39 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 18.66475.601,146.291,598.95983.717,354.4654,984.08411,076.893,073,329.4422,977,097.92
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -138.61-416.72-1,686.58-633.77-566.51-15,808.19-118,186.61-883,597.21-6,606,027.77-49,388,570.27
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -144.29-421.60-1,699.24-662.82-607.74-16,375.28-122,426.35-915,294.73-6,843,007.60-51,160,299.82
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 5.684.8912.6629.0541.23567.094,239.7431,697.52236,979.821,771,729.56
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Total Cash 78.82711.051,515.121,336.88568.5012,435.7492,973.18695,094.355,196,725.9738,852,223.26
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 7.50262.01454.9982.37297.242,505.5318,732.04140,046.111,047,025.167,827,862.31
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories -82.97-166.67-1,956.9736.6841.70-9,469.69-70,798.11-529,307.07-3,957,252.43-29,585,561.28
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 2.9154.33127.05216.52132.61957.887,161.4153,540.76400,286.162,992,654.88
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -1.86-54.62-57.49-92.98-53.77-555-4,149.33-31,021.60-231,926.47-1,733,949.23
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 5.39
Beta 1.463
Diluted Shares Outstanding 100.77
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -0.37
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.16%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 11.064
Total Debt 229.08
Total Equity 543.14
Total Capital 772.22
Debt Weighting 29.67
Equity Weighting 70.33
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 18.66475.601,146.291,598.95983.717,354.4654,984.08411,076.893,073,329.4422,977,097.92
EBITDA -138.61-416.72-1,686.58-633.77-566.51-15,808.19-118,186.61-883,597.21-6,606,027.77-49,388,570.27
EBIT -144.29-421.60-1,699.24-662.82-607.74-16,375.28-122,426.35-915,294.73-6,843,007.60-51,160,299.82
Tax Rate 1.95%-2.21%-1.70%-0.66%-0.37%-0.60%-0.60%-0.60%-0.60%-0.60%
EBIAT -141.47-430.92-1,728.19-667.17-610.01-16,473.27-123,158.91-920,771.53-6,883,953.70-51,466,424.69
Depreciation 5.684.8912.6629.0541.23567.094,239.7431,697.52236,979.821,771,729.56
Accounts Receivable --254.51-192.98372.62-214.87-2,208.29-16,226.51-121,314.08-906,979.05-6,780,837.14
Inventories -83.711,790.29-1,993.65-5.019,511.3861,328.42458,508.963,427,945.3625,628,308.85
Accounts Payable -51.4272.7289.47-83.91825.276,203.5346,379.35346,745.402,592,368.71
Capital Expenditure -1.86-54.62-57.49-92.98-53.77-555-4,149.33-31,021.60-231,926.47-1,733,949.23
UFCF -137.65-600.04-102.99-2,262.67-926.34-8,332.81-71,763.06-536,521.37-4,011,188.63-29,988,803.94
WACC
PV UFCF -7,643.37-60,379.37-414,064.97-2,839,542.51-19,472,793.41
SUM PV UFCF -22,794,423.65

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.02
Free cash flow (t + 1) -30,588,580.02
Terminal Value -435,734,758.15
Present Value of Terminal Value -282,938,023.98

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -305,732,447.63
Net Debt -339.42
Equity Value -305,732,108.21
Shares Outstanding 100.77
Equity Value Per Share -3,034,019.81