Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)

$ 315.03

-11.71 (-3.58%)

Stock DCF: 125.52 | 315.03 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	6,910	9,714	11,716	10,918	16,675	21,140	26,800.59	33,976.88	43,074.75	54,608.71
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	2,150	3,589	4,584	3,403	5,691	7,292.65	9,245.38	11,720.98	14,859.46	18,838.33
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	1,963	3,390	4,322	3,022	4,593	6,571.13	8,330.65	10,561.32	13,389.29	16,974.49
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	187	199	262	381	1,098	721.53	914.73	1,159.66	1,470.18	1,863.84
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Total Cash	6,798	7,108	7,422	10,897	11,561	17,082.82	21,657.03	27,456.05	34,807.85	44,128.23
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	826	1,265	1,424	1,657	2,429	2,827.43	3,584.52	4,544.34	5,761.16	7,303.80
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	794	796	1,575	979	1,826	2,242.76	2,843.30	3,604.64	4,569.84	5,793.49
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	485	596	511	687	1,201	1,311.13	1,662.20	2,107.29	2,671.55	3,386.90
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-176	-593	-600	-489	-1,128	-1,057.69	-1,340.90	-1,699.95	-2,155.14	-2,732.21
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 315.03
Beta	1.453
Diluted Shares Outstanding	2,512
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	1.75
After-tax Cost of Debt	2.55%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	8.340
Total Debt	7,084
Total Equity	791,355.36
Total Capital	798,439.36
Debt Weighting	0.89
Equity Weighting	99.11
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	6,910	9,714	11,716	10,918	16,675	21,140	26,800.59	33,976.88	43,074.75	54,608.71
EBITDA	2,150	3,589	4,584	3,403	5,691	7,292.65	9,245.38	11,720.98	14,859.46	18,838.33
EBIT	1,963	3,390	4,322	3,022	4,593	6,571.13	8,330.65	10,561.32	13,389.29	16,974.49
Tax Rate	12.55%	4.66%	-6.29%	5.86%	1.75%	3.70%	3.70%	3.70%	3.70%	3.70%
EBIAT	1,716.72	3,231.96	4,593.79	2,844.95	4,512.79	6,327.67	8,022.01	10,170.03	12,893.22	16,345.60
Depreciation	187	199	262	381	1,098	721.53	914.73	1,159.66	1,470.18	1,863.84
Accounts Receivable	-	-439	-159	-233	-772	-398.43	-757.09	-959.81	-1,216.82	-1,542.64
Inventories	-	-2	-779	596	-847	-416.76	-600.54	-761.34	-965.20	-1,223.65
Accounts Payable	-	111	-85	176	514	110.13	351.08	445.08	564.26	715.35
Capital Expenditure	-176	-593	-600	-489	-1,128	-1,057.69	-1,340.90	-1,699.95	-2,155.14	-2,732.21
UFCF	1,727.72	2,507.96	3,232.79	3,275.95	3,377.79	5,286.44	6,589.28	8,353.67	10,590.50	13,426.28
WACC
PV UFCF						4,881.75	5,619.03	6,578.28	7,701.28	9,016
SUM PV UFCF										33,796.34

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	8.29
Free cash flow (t + 1)	14,097.60
Terminal Value	428,498.37
Present Value of Terminal Value	287,744.75

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	321,541.09
Net Debt	6,237
Equity Value	315,304.09
Shares Outstanding	2,512
Equity Value Per Share	125.52