Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)

$455.03

-10.63 (-2.28%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 65.09 | 455.03 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Actual	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected	2028 Projected
Revenue	11,716	10,918	16,675	26,914	26,974	34,226.26	43,428.37	55,104.58	69,920.06	88,718.85
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	3,954	3,403	5,691	11,351	7,340	11,529.65	14,629.53	18,562.84	23,553.67	29,886.33
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	3,692	3,022	4,593	10,177	5,796	9,996.54	12,684.22	16,094.52	20,421.71	25,912.32
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	262	381	1,098	1,174	1,544	1,533.11	1,945.30	2,468.32	3,131.96	3,974.02
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Actual	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected	2028 Projected
Total Cash	7,422	10,897	11,561	21,208	13,296	24,682.56	31,318.75	39,739.14	50,423.45	63,980.36
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	1,424	1,657	2,429	4,650	3,827	5,021.87	6,372.05	8,085.25	10,259.06	13,017.33
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	1,575	979	1,826	2,605	5,159	4,255.37	5,399.48	6,851.19	8,693.21	11,030.47
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	511	687	1,201	1,783	1,193	1,978.54	2,510.50	3,185.47	4,041.92	5,128.64
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-600	-489	-1,128	-976	-1,833	-1,833.60	-2,326.58	-2,952.11	-3,745.82	-4,752.93
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 455.03
Beta	1.691
Diluted Shares Outstanding	2,507
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	-4.47
After-tax Cost of Debt	4.12%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	12.103
Total Debt	11,855
Total Equity	1,140,760.21
Total Capital	1,152,615.21
Debt Weighting	1.03
Equity Weighting	98.97
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Actual	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected	2028 Projected
Revenue	11,716	10,918	16,675	26,914	26,974	34,226.26	43,428.37	55,104.58	69,920.06	88,718.85
EBITDA	3,954	3,403	5,691	11,351	7,340	11,529.65	14,629.53	18,562.84	23,553.67	29,886.33
EBIT	3,692	3,022	4,593	10,177	5,796	9,996.54	12,684.22	16,094.52	20,421.71	25,912.32
Tax Rate	-6.29%	5.86%	1.75%	1.90%	-4.47%	-0.25%	-0.25%	-0.25%	-0.25%	-0.25%
EBIAT	3,924.17	2,844.95	4,512.79	9,983.51	6,055.23	10,021.63	12,716.06	16,134.91	20,472.96	25,977.35
Depreciation	262	381	1,098	1,174	1,544	1,533.11	1,945.30	2,468.32	3,131.96	3,974.02
Accounts Receivable	-	-233	-772	-2,221	823	-1,194.87	-1,350.19	-1,713.20	-2,173.81	-2,758.26
Inventories	-	596	-847	-779	-2,554	903.63	-1,144.10	-1,451.71	-1,842.02	-2,337.27
Accounts Payable	-	176	514	582	-590	785.54	531.95	674.98	856.45	1,086.72
Capital Expenditure	-600	-489	-1,128	-976	-1,833	-1,833.60	-2,326.58	-2,952.11	-3,745.82	-4,752.93
UFCF	3,586.17	3,275.95	3,377.79	7,763.51	3,445.23	10,215.44	10,372.44	13,161.19	16,699.72	21,189.63
WACC
PV UFCF						9,119.30	8,265.89	9,362.86	10,605.40	12,012.83
SUM PV UFCF										49,366.29

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	12.02
Free cash flow (t + 1)	21,613.42
Terminal Value	215,702.79
Present Value of Terminal Value	122,286.33

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	171,652.62
Net Debt	8,466
Equity Value	163,186.62
Shares Outstanding	2,507
Equity Value Per Share	65.09