Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)

$211

-6.09 (-2.81%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 87.83 | 211 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	9,714	11,716	10,918	16,675	26,914	35,521.84	46,882.69	61,877.06	81,667.04	107,786.40
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	3,456	4,216	3,403	5,691	11,351	12,719.32	16,787.31	22,156.35	29,242.55	38,595.13
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	3,257	3,954	3,022	4,593	10,177	11,389.29	15,031.90	19,839.52	26,184.74	34,559.33
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	199	262	381	1,098	1,174	1,330.03	1,755.40	2,316.83	3,057.82	4,035.79
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	7,108	7,422	10,897	11,561	21,208	27,313.46	36,049.05	47,578.53	62,795.45	82,879.15
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	1,265	1,424	1,657	2,429	4,650	5,129.18	6,769.63	8,934.74	11,792.31	15,563.82
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	796	1,575	979	1,826	2,605	3,639.84	4,803.96	6,340.40	8,368.24	11,044.63
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	596	511	687	1,201	1,783	2,175.12	2,870.78	3,788.93	5,000.73	6,600.11
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-593	-600	-489	-1,128	-976	-1,853.93	-2,446.87	-3,229.44	-4,262.30	-5,625.51
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 211
Beta	1.722
Diluted Shares Outstanding	2,535
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	1.90
After-tax Cost of Debt	1.98%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	11.660
Total Debt	11,687
Total Equity	534,885
Total Capital	546,572
Debt Weighting	2.14
Equity Weighting	97.86
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	9,714	11,716	10,918	16,675	26,914	35,521.84	46,882.69	61,877.06	81,667.04	107,786.40
EBITDA	3,456	4,216	3,403	5,691	11,351	12,719.32	16,787.31	22,156.35	29,242.55	38,595.13
EBIT	3,257	3,954	3,022	4,593	10,177	11,389.29	15,031.90	19,839.52	26,184.74	34,559.33
Tax Rate	4.66%	-6.29%	5.86%	1.75%	1.90%	1.58%	1.58%	1.58%	1.58%	1.58%
EBIAT	3,105.16	4,202.65	2,844.95	4,512.79	9,983.51	11,209.80	14,795	19,526.85	25,772.08	34,014.69
Depreciation	199	262	381	1,098	1,174	1,330.03	1,755.40	2,316.83	3,057.82	4,035.79
Accounts Receivable	-	-159	-233	-772	-2,221	-479.18	-1,640.45	-2,165.11	-2,857.57	-3,771.51
Inventories	-	-779	596	-847	-779	-1,034.84	-1,164.12	-1,536.44	-2,027.83	-2,676.39
Accounts Payable	-	-85	176	514	582	392.12	695.66	918.15	1,211.80	1,599.37
Capital Expenditure	-593	-600	-489	-1,128	-976	-1,853.93	-2,446.87	-3,229.44	-4,262.30	-5,625.51
UFCF	2,711.16	2,841.65	3,275.95	3,377.79	7,763.51	9,564	11,994.63	15,830.85	20,893.98	27,576.45
WACC
PV UFCF						8,581.42	9,656.66	11,435.73	13,542.57	16,037.55
SUM PV UFCF										59,253.93

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	11.45
Free cash flow (t + 1)	28,127.98
Terminal Value	297,650.60
Present Value of Terminal Value	173,103.72

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	232,357.65
Net Debt	9,697
Equity Value	222,660.65
Shares Outstanding	2,535
Equity Value Per Share	87.83