Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Navigator Holdings Ltd. (NVGS)

$13.34

-0.12 (-0.89%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 26.48 | 13.34 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 310.05301.39332.50403.58473.79528.64589.84658.12734.31819.31
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 115.64108.43117.9391.6755.71151.42168.95188.51210.33234.68
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 39.5032.2641.253.18-56.6026.1129.1332.5036.2640.46
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 76.1476.1776.6888.49112.31125.31139.82156.01174.07194.22
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 71.5166.1359.06124.01153.19133.04148.44165.62184.80206.19
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 21.7632.6846.8260.6545.4359.8066.7274.4583.0792.68
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 8.799.658.4313.178.5514.4216.0917.9520.0322.35
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 10.7810.478.5713.207.7715.2717.0319.0121.2123.66
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -0.83-3.27-2.26-3.54-3.45-3.85-4.29-4.79-5.34-5.96
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 13.34
Beta 1.605
Diluted Shares Outstanding 77.56
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -52.64
After-tax Cost of Debt 6.27%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.954
Total Debt 810.54
Total Equity 1,034.63
Total Capital 1,845.17
Debt Weighting 43.93
Equity Weighting 56.07
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 310.05301.39332.50403.58473.79528.64589.84658.12734.31819.31
EBITDA 115.64108.43117.9391.6755.71151.42168.95188.51210.33234.68
EBIT 39.5032.2641.253.18-56.6026.1129.1332.5036.2640.46
Tax Rate -6.16%-10.42%134.64%17.53%-52.64%16.59%16.59%16.59%16.59%16.59%
EBIAT 41.9435.62-14.292.62-86.4021.7824.3027.1130.2533.75
Depreciation 76.1476.1776.6888.49112.31125.31139.82156.01174.07194.22
Accounts Receivable --10.92-14.14-13.8315.22-14.37-6.92-7.72-8.62-9.62
Inventories --0.861.22-4.744.62-5.87-1.67-1.86-2.08-2.32
Accounts Payable --0.31-1.914.63-5.427.491.771.972.202.45
Capital Expenditure -0.83-3.27-2.26-3.54-3.45-3.85-4.29-4.79-5.34-5.96
UFCF 117.2596.4445.3073.6336.89130.49153170.71190.48212.53
WACC
PV UFCF 119.83129.01132.19135.43138.76
SUM PV UFCF 655.22

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.90
Free cash flow (t + 1) 216.78
Terminal Value 3,141.68
Present Value of Terminal Value 2,051.27

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 2,706.50
Net Debt 653.10
Equity Value 2,053.40
Shares Outstanding 77.56
Equity Value Per Share 26.48