Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Navigator Holdings Ltd. (NVGS)

$12.87

-0.10 (-0.77%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 20.38 | 12.87 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	298.60	310.05	301.39	332.49	403.58	436.62	472.36	511.03	552.86	598.11
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	116.99	115.64	108.43	117.93	91.67	149.01	161.20	174.40	188.68	204.12
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	43.40	39.50	32.26	41.25	3.18	44.69	48.34	52.30	56.58	61.21
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	73.59	76.14	76.17	76.68	88.49	104.32	112.86	122.10	132.09	142.91
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Total Cash	62.11	71.51	66.13	59.06	124.01	99.81	107.98	116.82	126.38	136.73
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	30.68	21.76	32.68	46.82	60.65	49.99	54.08	58.51	63.30	68.48
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	8.01	8.79	9.65	8.43	13.17	12.68	13.71	14.84	16.05	17.36
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	8.07	10.78	10.47	8.57	13.20	13.54	14.64	15.84	17.14	18.54
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-184.29	-0.83	-3.27	-2.26	-3.54	-56.44	-61.06	-66.06	-71.46	-77.31
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 12.87
Beta	1.644
Diluted Shares Outstanding	55.79
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	17.53
After-tax Cost of Debt	3.46%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	11.310
Total Debt	920.50
Total Equity	718.05
Total Capital	1,638.55
Debt Weighting	56.18
Equity Weighting	43.82
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	298.60	310.05	301.39	332.49	403.58	436.62	472.36	511.03	552.86	598.11
EBITDA	116.99	115.64	108.43	117.93	91.67	149.01	161.20	174.40	188.68	204.12
EBIT	43.40	39.50	32.26	41.25	3.18	44.69	48.34	52.30	56.58	61.21
Tax Rate	6.96%	-6.16%	-10.42%	134.64%	17.53%	28.51%	28.51%	28.51%	28.51%	28.51%
EBIAT	40.38	41.94	35.62	-14.29	2.62	31.95	34.56	37.39	40.45	43.76
Depreciation	73.59	76.14	76.17	76.68	88.49	104.32	112.86	122.10	132.09	142.91
Accounts Receivable	-	8.92	-10.92	-14.14	-13.83	10.66	-4.09	-4.43	-4.79	-5.18
Inventories	-	-0.78	-0.86	1.22	-4.74	0.50	-1.04	-1.12	-1.21	-1.31
Accounts Payable	-	2.71	-0.31	-1.91	4.63	0.34	1.11	1.20	1.30	1.40
Capital Expenditure	-184.29	-0.83	-3.27	-2.26	-3.54	-56.44	-61.06	-66.06	-71.46	-77.31
UFCF	-70.33	128.09	96.44	45.30	73.63	91.32	82.34	89.08	96.38	104.26
WACC
PV UFCF						85.43	72.06	72.92	73.80	74.69
SUM PV UFCF										378.90

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	6.90
Free cash flow (t + 1)	106.35
Terminal Value	2,170.40
Present Value of Terminal Value	1,554.72

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	1,933.62
Net Debt	796.49
Equity Value	1,137.12
Shares Outstanding	55.79
Equity Value Per Share	20.38