Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Navigator Holdings Ltd. (NVGS)
$13.34
-0.12 (-0.89%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 310.05 | 301.39 | 332.50 | 403.58 | 473.79 | 528.64 | 589.84 | 658.12 | 734.31 | 819.31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 115.64 | 108.43 | 117.93 | 91.67 | 55.71 | 151.42 | 168.95 | 188.51 | 210.33 | 234.68 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 39.50 | 32.26 | 41.25 | 3.18 | -56.60 | 26.11 | 29.13 | 32.50 | 36.26 | 40.46 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 76.14 | 76.17 | 76.68 | 88.49 | 112.31 | 125.31 | 139.82 | 156.01 | 174.07 | 194.22 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 71.51 | 66.13 | 59.06 | 124.01 | 153.19 | 133.04 | 148.44 | 165.62 | 184.80 | 206.19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 21.76 | 32.68 | 46.82 | 60.65 | 45.43 | 59.80 | 66.72 | 74.45 | 83.07 | 92.68 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 8.79 | 9.65 | 8.43 | 13.17 | 8.55 | 14.42 | 16.09 | 17.95 | 20.03 | 22.35 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 10.78 | 10.47 | 8.57 | 13.20 | 7.77 | 15.27 | 17.03 | 19.01 | 21.21 | 23.66 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -0.83 | -3.27 | -2.26 | -3.54 | -3.45 | -3.85 | -4.29 | -4.79 | -5.34 | -5.96 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 13.34 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.605 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 77.56 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | -52.64 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 6.27% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 10.954 |
| Total Debt | 810.54 |
| Total Equity | 1,034.63 |
| Total Capital | 1,845.17 |
| Debt Weighting | 43.93 |
| Equity Weighting | 56.07 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 310.05 | 301.39 | 332.50 | 403.58 | 473.79 | 528.64 | 589.84 | 658.12 | 734.31 | 819.31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 115.64 | 108.43 | 117.93 | 91.67 | 55.71 | 151.42 | 168.95 | 188.51 | 210.33 | 234.68 |
| EBIT | 39.50 | 32.26 | 41.25 | 3.18 | -56.60 | 26.11 | 29.13 | 32.50 | 36.26 | 40.46 |
| Tax Rate | -6.16% | -10.42% | 134.64% | 17.53% | -52.64% | 16.59% | 16.59% | 16.59% | 16.59% | 16.59% |
| EBIAT | 41.94 | 35.62 | -14.29 | 2.62 | -86.40 | 21.78 | 24.30 | 27.11 | 30.25 | 33.75 |
| Depreciation | 76.14 | 76.17 | 76.68 | 88.49 | 112.31 | 125.31 | 139.82 | 156.01 | 174.07 | 194.22 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -10.92 | -14.14 | -13.83 | 15.22 | -14.37 | -6.92 | -7.72 | -8.62 | -9.62 |
| Inventories | - | -0.86 | 1.22 | -4.74 | 4.62 | -5.87 | -1.67 | -1.86 | -2.08 | -2.32 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -0.31 | -1.91 | 4.63 | -5.42 | 7.49 | 1.77 | 1.97 | 2.20 | 2.45 |
| Capital Expenditure | -0.83 | -3.27 | -2.26 | -3.54 | -3.45 | -3.85 | -4.29 | -4.79 | -5.34 | -5.96 |
| UFCF | 117.25 | 96.44 | 45.30 | 73.63 | 36.89 | 130.49 | 153 | 170.71 | 190.48 | 212.53 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 119.83 | 129.01 | 132.19 | 135.43 | 138.76 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 655.22 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 8.90 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 216.78 |
| Terminal Value | 3,141.68 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 2,051.27 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 2,706.50 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 653.10 |
| Equity Value | 2,053.40 |
| Shares Outstanding | 77.56 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 26.48 |