Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Navigator Holdings Ltd. (NVGS)

$12.87

-0.10 (-0.77%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 20.38 | 12.87 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 298.60310.05301.39332.49403.58436.62472.36511.03552.86598.11
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 116.99115.64108.43117.9391.67149.01161.20174.40188.68204.12
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 43.4039.5032.2641.253.1844.6948.3452.3056.5861.21
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 73.5976.1476.1776.6888.49104.32112.86122.10132.09142.91
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 62.1171.5166.1359.06124.0199.81107.98116.82126.38136.73
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 30.6821.7632.6846.8260.6549.9954.0858.5163.3068.48
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 8.018.799.658.4313.1712.6813.7114.8416.0517.36
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 8.0710.7810.478.5713.2013.5414.6415.8417.1418.54
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -184.29-0.83-3.27-2.26-3.54-56.44-61.06-66.06-71.46-77.31
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 12.87
Beta 1.644
Diluted Shares Outstanding 55.79
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 17.53
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.46%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 11.310
Total Debt 920.50
Total Equity 718.05
Total Capital 1,638.55
Debt Weighting 56.18
Equity Weighting 43.82
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 298.60310.05301.39332.49403.58436.62472.36511.03552.86598.11
EBITDA 116.99115.64108.43117.9391.67149.01161.20174.40188.68204.12
EBIT 43.4039.5032.2641.253.1844.6948.3452.3056.5861.21
Tax Rate 6.96%-6.16%-10.42%134.64%17.53%28.51%28.51%28.51%28.51%28.51%
EBIAT 40.3841.9435.62-14.292.6231.9534.5637.3940.4543.76
Depreciation 73.5976.1476.1776.6888.49104.32112.86122.10132.09142.91
Accounts Receivable -8.92-10.92-14.14-13.8310.66-4.09-4.43-4.79-5.18
Inventories --0.78-0.861.22-4.740.50-1.04-1.12-1.21-1.31
Accounts Payable -2.71-0.31-1.914.630.341.111.201.301.40
Capital Expenditure -184.29-0.83-3.27-2.26-3.54-56.44-61.06-66.06-71.46-77.31
UFCF -70.33128.0996.4445.3073.6391.3282.3489.0896.38104.26
WACC
PV UFCF 85.4372.0672.9273.8074.69
SUM PV UFCF 378.90

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.90
Free cash flow (t + 1) 106.35
Terminal Value 2,170.40
Present Value of Terminal Value 1,554.72

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 1,933.62
Net Debt 796.49
Equity Value 1,137.12
Shares Outstanding 55.79
Equity Value Per Share 20.38