Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Navigator Holdings Ltd. (NVGS)
$12.87
-0.10 (-0.77%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Revenue | 298.60 | 310.05 | 301.39 | 332.49 | 403.58 | 436.62 | 472.36 | 511.03 | 552.86 | 598.11 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 116.99 | 115.64 | 108.43 | 117.93 | 91.67 | 149.01 | 161.20 | 174.40 | 188.68 | 204.12 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 43.40 | 39.50 | 32.26 | 41.25 | 3.18 | 44.69 | 48.34 | 52.30 | 56.58 | 61.21 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 73.59 | 76.14 | 76.17 | 76.68 | 88.49 | 104.32 | 112.86 | 122.10 | 132.09 | 142.91 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Total Cash | 62.11 | 71.51 | 66.13 | 59.06 | 124.01 | 99.81 | 107.98 | 116.82 | 126.38 | 136.73 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 30.68 | 21.76 | 32.68 | 46.82 | 60.65 | 49.99 | 54.08 | 58.51 | 63.30 | 68.48 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 8.01 | 8.79 | 9.65 | 8.43 | 13.17 | 12.68 | 13.71 | 14.84 | 16.05 | 17.36 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 8.07 | 10.78 | 10.47 | 8.57 | 13.20 | 13.54 | 14.64 | 15.84 | 17.14 | 18.54 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -184.29 | -0.83 | -3.27 | -2.26 | -3.54 | -56.44 | -61.06 | -66.06 | -71.46 | -77.31 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 12.87 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.644 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 55.79 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 17.53 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.46% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 11.310 |
Total Debt | 920.50 |
Total Equity | 718.05 |
Total Capital | 1,638.55 |
Debt Weighting | 56.18 |
Equity Weighting | 43.82 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Revenue | 298.60 | 310.05 | 301.39 | 332.49 | 403.58 | 436.62 | 472.36 | 511.03 | 552.86 | 598.11 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 116.99 | 115.64 | 108.43 | 117.93 | 91.67 | 149.01 | 161.20 | 174.40 | 188.68 | 204.12 |
EBIT | 43.40 | 39.50 | 32.26 | 41.25 | 3.18 | 44.69 | 48.34 | 52.30 | 56.58 | 61.21 |
Tax Rate | 6.96% | -6.16% | -10.42% | 134.64% | 17.53% | 28.51% | 28.51% | 28.51% | 28.51% | 28.51% |
EBIAT | 40.38 | 41.94 | 35.62 | -14.29 | 2.62 | 31.95 | 34.56 | 37.39 | 40.45 | 43.76 |
Depreciation | 73.59 | 76.14 | 76.17 | 76.68 | 88.49 | 104.32 | 112.86 | 122.10 | 132.09 | 142.91 |
Accounts Receivable | - | 8.92 | -10.92 | -14.14 | -13.83 | 10.66 | -4.09 | -4.43 | -4.79 | -5.18 |
Inventories | - | -0.78 | -0.86 | 1.22 | -4.74 | 0.50 | -1.04 | -1.12 | -1.21 | -1.31 |
Accounts Payable | - | 2.71 | -0.31 | -1.91 | 4.63 | 0.34 | 1.11 | 1.20 | 1.30 | 1.40 |
Capital Expenditure | -184.29 | -0.83 | -3.27 | -2.26 | -3.54 | -56.44 | -61.06 | -66.06 | -71.46 | -77.31 |
UFCF | -70.33 | 128.09 | 96.44 | 45.30 | 73.63 | 91.32 | 82.34 | 89.08 | 96.38 | 104.26 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 85.43 | 72.06 | 72.92 | 73.80 | 74.69 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 378.90 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 6.90 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 106.35 |
Terminal Value | 2,170.40 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 1,554.72 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 1,933.62 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 796.49 |
Equity Value | 1,137.12 |
Shares Outstanding | 55.79 |
Equity Value Per Share | 20.38 |