Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO)

$127.01

+1.77 (+1.41%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 684.81 | 127.01 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 111,696111,831122,021126,946140,800149,312.18158,338.96167,911.47178,062.70188,827.62
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 51,95251,62554,43459,27365,39468,809.5772,969.5177,380.9482,059.0687,020.01
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 48,77047,70048,77353,52059,36962,894.1566,696.4770,728.6675,004.6179,539.08
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 3,1823,9255,6615,7536,0255,915.426,273.046,652.287,054.457,480.93
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 18,85215,63815,47512,75717,48519,712.5720,904.3122,168.1023,508.2924,929.50
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 23,55126,88929,15232,18446,79938,107.6440,411.4742,854.5845,445.3948,192.82
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 15,37316,33617,64118,53619,62121,311.3922,599.7923,966.0725,414.9626,951.44
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 5,6106,7566,3585,7178,8708,086.038,574.889,093.289,643.0210,226
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -8,648-12,410-11,231-22,081-7,385-15,135.10-16,050.10-17,020.43-18,049.41-19,140.60
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 127.01
Beta 0.343
Diluted Shares Outstanding 2,333.90
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 19.17
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.87%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 5.095
Total Debt 26,645
Total Equity 296,428.64
Total Capital 323,073.64
Debt Weighting 8.25
Equity Weighting 91.75
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 111,696111,831122,021126,946140,800149,312.18158,338.96167,911.47178,062.70188,827.62
EBITDA 51,95251,62554,43459,27365,39468,809.5772,969.5177,380.9482,059.0687,020.01
EBIT 48,77047,70048,77353,52059,36962,894.1566,696.4770,728.6675,004.6179,539.08
Tax Rate 21.67%18.87%19.78%20.69%19.17%20.04%20.04%20.04%20.04%20.04%
EBIAT 38,200.4938,696.9639,127.4942,447.3147,990.6150,293.0353,333.5456,557.8659,977.1163,603.08
Depreciation 3,1823,9255,6615,7536,0255,915.426,273.046,652.287,054.457,480.93
Accounts Receivable --3,338-2,263-3,032-14,6158,691.36-2,303.83-2,443.11-2,590.81-2,747.44
Inventories --963-1,305-895-1,085-1,690.39-1,288.40-1,366.29-1,448.89-1,536.48
Accounts Payable -1,146-398-6413,153-783.97488.85518.40549.74582.98
Capital Expenditure -8,648-12,410-11,231-22,081-7,385-15,135.10-16,050.10-17,020.43-18,049.41-19,140.60
UFCF 32,734.4927,056.9629,591.4921,551.3134,083.6147,290.3540,453.1042,898.7245,492.2048,242.47
WACC
PV UFCF 45,145.9236,867.5037,323.4937,785.1238,252.46
SUM PV UFCF 195,374.49

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 4.75
Free cash flow (t + 1) 49,207.31
Terminal Value 1,789,356.90
Present Value of Terminal Value 1,418,818.40

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 1,614,192.89
Net Debt 15,925
Equity Value 1,598,267.89
Shares Outstanding 2,333.90
Equity Value Per Share 684.81