Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

NVR, Inc. (NVR)

$4057.67

+48.09 (+1.20%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 6,007.14 | 4057.67 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 6,313.697,175.277,400.817,545.858,959.759,799.4310,717.8011,722.2412,820.8114,022.34
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 893.761,004.981,071.991,140.901,662.981,495.921,636.121,789.451,957.152,140.57
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 871.10984.811,051.171,118.901,643.521,467.901,605.461,755.921,920.482,100.46
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 22.6720.1720.8221.9919.4628.0330.6533.5336.6740.11
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 666.79711.881,140.302,778.272,573.471,987.932,174.242,3782,600.862,844.60
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 20.0318.6418.2818.3018.5524.9627.3029.8632.6535.72
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 1,246.201,253.111,347.291,709.081,947.371,955.792,139.082,339.542,558.802,798.60
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 294.80288.57306.97402.59387.95441.05482.39527.59577.04631.12
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -20.27-19.66-22.70-16.12-17.87-25.77-28.19-30.83-33.72-36.88
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 4,057.67
Beta 0.994
Diluted Shares Outstanding 3.92
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 22.24
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.60%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.391
Total Debt 1,590.82
Total Equity 15,893.89
Total Capital 17,484.71
Debt Weighting 9.10
Equity Weighting 90.90
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 6,313.697,175.277,400.817,545.858,959.759,799.4310,717.8011,722.2412,820.8114,022.34
EBITDA 893.761,004.981,071.991,140.901,662.981,495.921,636.121,789.451,957.152,140.57
EBIT 871.10984.811,051.171,118.901,643.521,467.901,605.461,755.921,920.482,100.46
Tax Rate 36.53%16.94%14.36%16.40%22.24%21.29%21.29%21.29%21.29%21.29%
EBIAT 552.87818.03900.28935.421,278.021,155.351,263.631,382.051,511.571,653.23
Depreciation 22.6720.1720.8221.9919.4628.0330.6533.5336.6740.11
Accounts Receivable -1.390.36-0.02-0.25-6.41-2.34-2.56-2.80-3.06
Inventories --6.91-94.18-361.79-238.28-8.42-183.29-200.47-219.25-239.80
Accounts Payable --6.2218.4095.62-14.6353.1041.3345.2149.4454.08
Capital Expenditure -20.27-19.66-22.70-16.12-17.88-25.77-28.19-30.83-33.72-36.88
UFCF 555.27806.78822.98675.091,026.441,195.881,121.801,226.931,341.921,467.68
WACC
PV UFCF 1,108.73964.26977.78991.481,005.38
SUM PV UFCF 5,047.62

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.86
Free cash flow (t + 1) 1,497.03
Terminal Value 25,546.59
Present Value of Terminal Value 17,499.71

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 22,547.33
Net Debt -982.65
Equity Value 23,529.98
Shares Outstanding 3.92
Equity Value Per Share 6,007.14