Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Newell Brands Inc. (NWL)

$11.52

-0.16 (-1.37%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: -103.69 | 11.52 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	8,630.90	9,714.90	9,385	10,589	9,459	9,726.72	10,002.02	10,285.10	10,576.20	10,875.54
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	-7,962.10	-485.10	-375	1,274	768	-1,577.47	-1,622.12	-1,668.03	-1,715.24	-1,763.79
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	-8,396	-931.10	-732	949	472	-1,959.16	-2,014.61	-2,071.63	-2,130.26	-2,190.56
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	433.90	446	357	325	296	381.69	392.49	403.60	415.02	426.77
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	495.70	348.60	981	440	287	524.73	539.59	554.86	570.56	586.71
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	1,850.70	1,841.50	1,678	1,500	1,250	1,666.35	1,713.51	1,762.01	1,811.88	1,863.16
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	1,583.10	1,606.70	1,638	1,997	2,203	1,838.03	1,890.05	1,943.54	1,998.55	2,055.11
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	1,019.50	1,101.40	1,526	1,680	1,062	1,293.70	1,330.31	1,367.97	1,406.68	1,446.50
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-384.40	-264.90	-259	-289	-312	-310.63	-319.42	-328.46	-337.76	-347.32
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 11.52
Beta	0.936
Diluted Shares Outstanding	417.40
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	-25.48
After-tax Cost of Debt	3.99%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	7.919
Total Debt	5,889
Total Equity	4,808.45
Total Capital	10,697.45
Debt Weighting	55.05
Equity Weighting	44.95
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	8,630.90	9,714.90	9,385	10,589	9,459	9,726.72	10,002.02	10,285.10	10,576.20	10,875.54
EBITDA	-7,962.10	-485.10	-375	1,274	768	-1,577.47	-1,622.12	-1,668.03	-1,715.24	-1,763.79
EBIT	-8,396	-931.10	-732	949	472	-1,959.16	-2,014.61	-2,071.63	-2,130.26	-2,190.56
Tax Rate	16.33%	112.52%	23.46%	17.46%	-25.48%	28.86%	28.86%	28.86%	28.86%	28.86%
EBIAT	-7,025.25	116.55	-560.28	783.30	592.25	-1,393.80	-1,433.25	-1,473.82	-1,515.53	-1,558.42
Depreciation	433.90	446	357	325	296	381.69	392.49	403.60	415.02	426.77
Accounts Receivable	-	9.20	163.50	178	250	-416.35	-47.16	-48.50	-49.87	-51.28
Inventories	-	-23.60	-31.30	-359	-206	364.97	-52.02	-53.49	-55.01	-56.57
Accounts Payable	-	81.90	424.60	154	-618	231.70	36.62	37.65	38.72	39.81
Capital Expenditure	-384.40	-264.90	-259	-289	-312	-310.63	-319.42	-328.46	-337.76	-347.32
UFCF	-6,975.75	365.15	94.52	792.30	2.25	-1,142.42	-1,422.75	-1,463.02	-1,504.43	-1,547.01
WACC
PV UFCF						-1,080.20	-1,272	-1,236.76	-1,202.50	-1,169.19
SUM PV UFCF										-5,960.65

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	5.76
Free cash flow (t + 1)	-1,577.95
Terminal Value	-41,966.70
Present Value of Terminal Value	-31,717.40

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	-37,678.05
Net Debt	5,602
Equity Value	-43,280.05
Shares Outstanding	417.40
Equity Value Per Share	-103.69