Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
NextGen Healthcare, Inc. (NXGN)
$20.57
-0.23 (-1.11%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 531.02 | 529.17 | 540.24 | 556.82 | 596.35 | 614.11 | 632.40 | 651.23 | 670.62 | 690.59 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 43.31 | 75.23 | 54.01 | 62.01 | 49.01 | 63.53 | 65.42 | 67.37 | 69.37 | 71.44 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 2.91 | 32.10 | 6.21 | 12.79 | 6.70 | 13.74 | 14.15 | 14.57 | 15 | 15.45 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 40.40 | 43.13 | 47.79 | 49.21 | 42.31 | 49.79 | 51.27 | 52.80 | 54.37 | 55.99 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 28.84 | 33.08 | 138.01 | 73.29 | 59.83 | 74.22 | 76.43 | 78.70 | 81.05 | 83.46 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 93.08 | 104.38 | 93.39 | 97.79 | 107.72 | 110.74 | 114.04 | 117.44 | 120.94 | 124.54 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 0.18 | 0.12 | 0.15 | 0.16 | 0.17 | 0.17 | 0.18 | 0.18 | 0.19 | 0.20 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 4.21 | 5.43 | 10.52 | 11.38 | 9.13 | 9.02 | 9.28 | 9.56 | 9.85 | 10.14 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -28.67 | -25.52 | -26.88 | -28.34 | -28.08 | -30.70 | -31.61 | -32.56 | -33.53 | -34.52 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 20.57 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.001 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 67.79 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 68.86 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.33% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 8.256 |
| Total Debt | 20.02 |
| Total Equity | 1,394.40 |
| Total Capital | 1,414.42 |
| Debt Weighting | 1.42 |
| Equity Weighting | 98.58 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 531.02 | 529.17 | 540.24 | 556.82 | 596.35 | 614.11 | 632.40 | 651.23 | 670.62 | 690.59 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 43.31 | 75.23 | 54.01 | 62.01 | 49.01 | 63.53 | 65.42 | 67.37 | 69.37 | 71.44 |
| EBIT | 2.91 | 32.10 | 6.21 | 12.79 | 6.70 | 13.74 | 14.15 | 14.57 | 15 | 15.45 |
| Tax Rate | 690.24% | 16.37% | -76.05% | -2.59% | 68.86% | 139.37% | 139.37% | 139.37% | 139.37% | 139.37% |
| EBIAT | -17.19 | 26.85 | 10.94 | 13.12 | 2.08 | -5.41 | -5.57 | -5.74 | -5.91 | -6.08 |
| Depreciation | 40.40 | 43.13 | 47.79 | 49.21 | 42.31 | 49.79 | 51.27 | 52.80 | 54.37 | 55.99 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -11.30 | 10.99 | -4.40 | -9.93 | -3.02 | -3.30 | -3.40 | -3.50 | -3.60 |
| Inventories | - | 0.06 | -0.03 | -0 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.01 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 1.22 | 5.09 | 0.86 | -2.25 | -0.11 | 0.27 | 0.28 | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| Capital Expenditure | -28.67 | -25.52 | -26.88 | -28.34 | -28.08 | -30.70 | -31.61 | -32.56 | -33.53 | -34.52 |
| UFCF | -5.46 | 34.44 | 47.90 | 30.45 | 4.12 | 10.54 | 11.06 | 11.38 | 11.72 | 12.07 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 9.75 | 9.45 | 8.99 | 8.56 | 8.15 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 44.91 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 8.17 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 12.31 |
| Terminal Value | 199.58 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 134.76 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 179.67 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -39.81 |
| Equity Value | 219.48 |
| Shares Outstanding | 67.79 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 3.24 |