Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. (NYMTP)
$25.3205
+0.00 (+0.00%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected |
| Revenue | 105.04 | 131.26 | 146.47 | 201.19 | -231.90 | -149.95 | -96.96 | -62.69 | -40.54 | -26.21 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 332.96 | 403.63 | 449.56 | 684.44 | -49.72 | -387.79 | -250.75 | -162.14 | -104.84 | -67.79 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 325.31 | 403.44 | 478.90 | 740.07 | -64.46 | -401.77 | -259.79 | -167.98 | -108.62 | -70.23 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 7.65 | 0.20 | -29.34 | -55.63 | 14.74 | 13.98 | 9.04 | 5.84 | 3.78 | 2.44 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected |
| Total Cash | 902.53 | 1,508.27 | 1,615.98 | 2,124.90 | 1,017.91 | -1,118.27 | -723.09 | -467.56 | -302.33 | -195.49 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 156.09 | 117.82 | 114.82 | 169.21 | -232.40 | -150.27 | -97.17 | -62.83 | -40.63 | -26.27 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | - | 7.03 | 38.31 | 8.46 | -0.21 | -13.42 | -8.68 | -5.61 | -3.63 | -2.35 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 25.3,205 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.900 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 109.44 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | -0.43 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 12.37% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 11.818 |
| Total Debt | 1,803.98 |
| Total Equity | 2,771.20 |
| Total Capital | 4,575.19 |
| Debt Weighting | 39.43 |
| Equity Weighting | 60.57 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected |
| Revenue | 105.04 | 131.26 | 146.47 | 201.19 | -231.90 | -149.95 | -96.96 | -62.69 | -40.54 | -26.21 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 332.96 | 403.63 | 449.56 | 684.44 | -49.72 | -387.79 | -250.75 | -162.14 | -104.84 | -67.79 |
| EBIT | 325.31 | 403.44 | 478.90 | 740.07 | -64.46 | -401.77 | -259.79 | -167.98 | -108.62 | -70.23 |
| Tax Rate | 4.39% | -0.06% | 0.82% | -0.73% | -0.43% | 0.80% | 0.80% | 0.80% | 0.80% | 0.80% |
| EBIAT | 311.02 | 403.69 | 474.97 | 745.47 | -64.74 | -398.56 | -257.72 | -166.64 | -107.75 | -69.67 |
| Depreciation | 7.65 | 0.20 | -29.34 | -55.63 | 14.74 | 13.98 | 9.04 | 5.84 | 3.78 | 2.44 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 38.27 | 3 | -54.39 | 401.62 | -82.13 | -53.11 | -34.34 | -22.20 | -14.36 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Capital Expenditure | - | 7.03 | 38.31 | 8.46 | -0.21 | -13.42 | -8.68 | -5.61 | -3.63 | -2.35 |
| UFCF | 318.67 | 449.18 | 486.94 | 643.91 | 351.41 | -480.14 | -310.46 | -200.75 | -129.81 | -83.93 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -428.54 | -247.32 | -142.74 | -82.38 | -47.54 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -948.52 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 12.04 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -85.61 |
| Terminal Value | -852.72 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -482.99 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -1,431.51 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 1,510.80 |
| Equity Value | -2,942.31 |
| Shares Outstanding | 109.44 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -26.88 |