Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Ocular Therapeutix, Inc. (OCUL)

$3.18

-0.04 (-1.24%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: -6,542.57 | 3.18 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	1.99	4.23	17.40	43.52	51.49	127.77	317.04	786.68	1,952	4,843.50
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	-58.24	-84.58	-62.68	-78	-77.86	-1,435.69	-3,562.38	-8,839.36	-21,933.17	-54,422.93
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	-60.53	-87.11	-65.45	-80.42	-79.97	-1,486.88	-3,689.40	-9,154.53	-22,715.21	-56,363.43
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	2.29	2.53	2.77	2.42	2.11	51.19	127.02	315.18	782.05	1,940.50
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	54.06	54.44	228.06	164.16	102.30	1,505.37	3,735.29	9,268.40	22,997.76	57,064.52
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	0.20	2.55	12.25	21.13	21.33	58.97	146.32	363.06	900.87	2,235.33
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	0.22	0.95	1.20	1.25	1.97	12.03	29.85	74.07	183.80	456.07
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	2.97	3.27	2.71	4.59	5.12	67.05	166.37	412.81	1,024.30	2,541.61
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-1.89	-2.24	-0.84	-1.19	-3.72	-41.57	-103.14	-255.92	-635.02	-1,575.69
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 3.18
Beta	1.224
Diluted Shares Outstanding	82.64
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	10.72
After-tax Cost of Debt	9.75%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	10.402
Total Debt	64.28
Total Equity	262.81
Total Capital	327.09
Debt Weighting	19.65
Equity Weighting	80.35
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	1.99	4.23	17.40	43.52	51.49	127.77	317.04	786.68	1,952	4,843.50
EBITDA	-58.24	-84.58	-62.68	-78	-77.86	-1,435.69	-3,562.38	-8,839.36	-21,933.17	-54,422.93
EBIT	-60.53	-87.11	-65.45	-80.42	-79.97	-1,486.88	-3,689.40	-9,154.53	-22,715.21	-56,363.43
Tax Rate	3.81%	-4.13%	-2.57%	-64.87%	10.72%	-11.41%	-11.41%	-11.41%	-11.41%	-11.41%
EBIAT	-58.22	-90.70	-67.13	-132.60	-71.39	-1,656.47	-4,110.22	-10,198.71	-25,306.14	-62,792.32
Depreciation	2.29	2.53	2.77	2.42	2.11	51.19	127.02	315.18	782.05	1,940.50
Accounts Receivable	-	-2.35	-9.70	-8.88	-0.19	-37.64	-87.35	-216.74	-537.81	-1,334.46
Inventories	-	-0.74	-0.25	-0.05	-0.72	-10.06	-17.82	-44.22	-109.73	-272.27
Accounts Payable	-	0.30	-0.56	1.88	0.53	61.93	99.32	246.44	611.50	1,517.31
Capital Expenditure	-1.89	-2.24	-0.84	-1.19	-3.71	-41.57	-103.14	-255.92	-635.02	-1,575.69
UFCF	-57.82	-93.19	-75.71	-138.42	-73.38	-1,632.62	-4,092.19	-10,153.98	-25,195.16	-62,516.93
WACC
PV UFCF						-1,480.57	-3,365.43	-7,572.94	-17,040.71	-38,345.18
SUM PV UFCF										-67,804.83

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	10.27
Free cash flow (t + 1)	-63,767.27
Terminal Value	-771,067.36
Present Value of Terminal Value	-472,939.35

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	-540,744.18
Net Debt	-38.02
Equity Value	-540,706.16
Shares Outstanding	82.64
Equity Value Per Share	-6,542.57