Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

OGE Energy Corp. (OGE)

$35.84

-0.69 (-1.89%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 8.82 | 35.84 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	2,270.30	2,231.60	2,122.30	3,653.70	3,304.20	3,766.70	4,293.94	4,894.98	5,580.15	6,361.22
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	975.30	966.30	248.70	1,452.80	1,416.50	1,360.61	1,551.06	1,768.17	2,015.66	2,297.80
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	653.70	611.30	-142.60	1,036.80	955.60	804.30	916.88	1,045.22	1,191.53	1,358.31
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	321.60	355	391.30	416	460.90	556.31	634.18	722.95	824.14	939.50
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	94.30	92.69	88.15	151.76	137.24	156.46	178.35	203.32	231.78	264.22
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	249.20	268.90	233.50	381.80	270.80	396.81	452.36	515.67	587.85	670.14
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	184.30	136.90	152.70	158.50	108.80	219.06	249.72	284.68	324.52	369.95
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	239.30	194.90	251.50	274	448.90	393.31	448.37	511.13	582.67	664.23
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-573.60	-635.50	-650.50	-778.50	-1,050.90	-1,035.88	-1,180.88	-1,346.17	-1,534.60	-1,749.41
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 35.84
Beta	0.688
Diluted Shares Outstanding	200.30
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	15.66
After-tax Cost of Debt	3.09%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	6.829
Total Debt	4,548.60
Total Equity	7,178.75
Total Capital	11,727.35
Debt Weighting	38.79
Equity Weighting	61.21
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	2,270.30	2,231.60	2,122.30	3,653.70	3,304.20	3,766.70	4,293.94	4,894.98	5,580.15	6,361.22
EBITDA	975.30	966.30	248.70	1,452.80	1,416.50	1,360.61	1,551.06	1,768.17	2,015.66	2,297.80
EBIT	653.70	611.30	-142.60	1,036.80	955.60	804.30	916.88	1,045.22	1,191.53	1,358.31
Tax Rate	14.51%	6.43%	42.31%	16.07%	15.66%	19.00%	19.00%	19.00%	19.00%	19.00%
EBIAT	558.87	571.99	-82.26	870.16	805.96	651.51	742.71	846.67	965.18	1,100.28
Depreciation	321.60	355	391.30	416	460.90	556.31	634.18	722.95	824.14	939.50
Accounts Receivable	-	-19.70	35.40	-148.30	111	-126.01	-55.54	-63.32	-72.18	-82.28
Inventories	-	47.40	-15.80	-5.80	49.70	-110.26	-30.66	-34.95	-39.85	-45.42
Accounts Payable	-	-44.40	56.60	22.50	174.90	-55.59	55.05	62.76	71.54	81.56
Capital Expenditure	-573.60	-635.50	-650.50	-778.50	-1,050.90	-1,035.88	-1,180.88	-1,346.17	-1,534.60	-1,749.41
UFCF	306.87	274.79	-265.26	376.06	551.56	-119.92	164.85	187.93	214.23	244.22
WACC
PV UFCF						-113.80	148.45	160.59	173.72	187.93
SUM PV UFCF										556.90

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	5.38
Free cash flow (t + 1)	249.11
Terminal Value	7,369.98
Present Value of Terminal Value	5,671.20

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	6,228.10
Net Debt	4,460.50
Equity Value	1,767.60
Shares Outstanding	200.30
Equity Value Per Share	8.82