Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

ONEOK, Inc. (OKE)

$56.75

+1.25 (+2.25%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -56.67 | 56.75 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 12,173.9112,593.2010,164.378,542.2416,540.3119,096.9422,048.7625,456.8329,391.7033,934.77
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 1,727.122,412.782,619.302,093.863,338.833,965.054,577.935,285.546,102.537,045.79
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 1,320.781,984.232,142.761,515.202,717.133,126.243,609.464,167.384,811.535,555.24
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 406.33428.56476.53578.66621.70838.81968.471,118.161,2911,490.55
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 37.1911.9720.96524.50146.39291.49336.55388.57448.63517.97
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 1,202.95818.96835.12829.801,441.791,643.541,897.592,190.892,529.542,920.53
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 432.59437.84506.67370.99580.90758.92876.221,011.661,168.031,348.57
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 1,140.571,118.101,209.90719.301,332.391,780.862,056.132,373.952,740.893,164.55
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -512.39-2,141.47-3,848.35-2,195.38-696.85-3,398.82-3,924.17-4,530.73-5,231.05-6,039.61
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 56.75
Beta 1.702
Diluted Shares Outstanding 447.40
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 24.42
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.04%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.924
Total Debt 13,732.87
Total Equity 25,390.12
Total Capital 39,122.99
Debt Weighting 35.10
Equity Weighting 64.90
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 12,173.9112,593.2010,164.378,542.2416,540.3119,096.9422,048.7625,456.8329,391.7033,934.77
EBITDA 1,727.122,412.782,619.302,093.863,338.833,965.054,577.935,285.546,102.537,045.79
EBIT 1,320.781,984.232,142.761,515.202,717.133,126.243,609.464,167.384,811.535,555.24
Tax Rate 62.74%24.13%22.56%23.62%24.42%31.49%31.49%31.49%31.49%31.49%
EBIAT 492.171,505.491,659.421,157.312,053.672,141.742,472.782,8553,296.303,805.81
Depreciation 406.33428.56476.53578.66621.70838.81968.471,118.161,2911,490.55
Accounts Receivable -383.99-16.165.32-611.99-201.76-254.04-293.31-338.65-390.99
Inventories --5.25-68.83135.69-209.91-178.02-117.31-135.44-156.37-180.54
Accounts Payable --22.4791.80-490.60613.09448.47275.27317.82366.94423.66
Capital Expenditure -512.39-2,141.47-3,848.35-2,195.38-696.85-3,398.82-3,924.17-4,530.73-5,231.05-6,039.61
UFCF 386.11148.85-1,705.59-808.991,769.70-349.57-579-668.50-771.83-891.13
WACC
PV UFCF -322.15-491.74-523.23-556.72-592.37
SUM PV UFCF -2,486.21

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.51
Free cash flow (t + 1) -908.95
Terminal Value -13,962.34
Present Value of Terminal Value -9,281.31

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -11,767.53
Net Debt 13,586.48
Equity Value -25,354.01
Shares Outstanding 447.40
Equity Value Per Share -56.67