Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

ONEOK, Inc. (OKE)

$56.75

+1.25 (+2.25%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: -56.67 | 56.75 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	12,173.91	12,593.20	10,164.37	8,542.24	16,540.31	19,096.94	22,048.76	25,456.83	29,391.70	33,934.77
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	1,727.12	2,412.78	2,619.30	2,093.86	3,338.83	3,965.05	4,577.93	5,285.54	6,102.53	7,045.79
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	1,320.78	1,984.23	2,142.76	1,515.20	2,717.13	3,126.24	3,609.46	4,167.38	4,811.53	5,555.24
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	406.33	428.56	476.53	578.66	621.70	838.81	968.47	1,118.16	1,291	1,490.55
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Total Cash	37.19	11.97	20.96	524.50	146.39	291.49	336.55	388.57	448.63	517.97
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	1,202.95	818.96	835.12	829.80	1,441.79	1,643.54	1,897.59	2,190.89	2,529.54	2,920.53
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	432.59	437.84	506.67	370.99	580.90	758.92	876.22	1,011.66	1,168.03	1,348.57
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	1,140.57	1,118.10	1,209.90	719.30	1,332.39	1,780.86	2,056.13	2,373.95	2,740.89	3,164.55
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-512.39	-2,141.47	-3,848.35	-2,195.38	-696.85	-3,398.82	-3,924.17	-4,530.73	-5,231.05	-6,039.61
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 56.75
Beta	1.702
Diluted Shares Outstanding	447.40
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	24.42
After-tax Cost of Debt	4.04%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	10.924
Total Debt	13,732.87
Total Equity	25,390.12
Total Capital	39,122.99
Debt Weighting	35.10
Equity Weighting	64.90
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	12,173.91	12,593.20	10,164.37	8,542.24	16,540.31	19,096.94	22,048.76	25,456.83	29,391.70	33,934.77
EBITDA	1,727.12	2,412.78	2,619.30	2,093.86	3,338.83	3,965.05	4,577.93	5,285.54	6,102.53	7,045.79
EBIT	1,320.78	1,984.23	2,142.76	1,515.20	2,717.13	3,126.24	3,609.46	4,167.38	4,811.53	5,555.24
Tax Rate	62.74%	24.13%	22.56%	23.62%	24.42%	31.49%	31.49%	31.49%	31.49%	31.49%
EBIAT	492.17	1,505.49	1,659.42	1,157.31	2,053.67	2,141.74	2,472.78	2,855	3,296.30	3,805.81
Depreciation	406.33	428.56	476.53	578.66	621.70	838.81	968.47	1,118.16	1,291	1,490.55
Accounts Receivable	-	383.99	-16.16	5.32	-611.99	-201.76	-254.04	-293.31	-338.65	-390.99
Inventories	-	-5.25	-68.83	135.69	-209.91	-178.02	-117.31	-135.44	-156.37	-180.54
Accounts Payable	-	-22.47	91.80	-490.60	613.09	448.47	275.27	317.82	366.94	423.66
Capital Expenditure	-512.39	-2,141.47	-3,848.35	-2,195.38	-696.85	-3,398.82	-3,924.17	-4,530.73	-5,231.05	-6,039.61
UFCF	386.11	148.85	-1,705.59	-808.99	1,769.70	-349.57	-579	-668.50	-771.83	-891.13
WACC
PV UFCF						-322.15	-491.74	-523.23	-556.72	-592.37
SUM PV UFCF										-2,486.21

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	8.51
Free cash flow (t + 1)	-908.95
Terminal Value	-13,962.34
Present Value of Terminal Value	-9,281.31

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	-11,767.53
Net Debt	13,586.48
Equity Value	-25,354.01
Shares Outstanding	447.40
Equity Value Per Share	-56.67