Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Okta, Inc. (OKTA)

$57.56

+0.69 (+1.21%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -390.82 | 57.56 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 259.99399.25586.07835.421,300.201,945.552,911.204,356.156,518.309,753.60
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -107.68-102.44-165.50-156.67-649.90-638.34-955.17-1,429.27-2,138.67-3,200.18
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -114.68-110.44-183.31-193.53-757.51-717.82-1,074.10-1,607.22-2,404.95-3,598.63
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 7817.8236.86107.6179.48118.93177.96266.28398.45
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 229.71563.771,403.022,556.192,501.793,764.045,632.298,427.8312,610.9218,870.25
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 52.2591.93130.12194.82397.51463.87694.121,038.631,554.152,325.54
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 9.5717.213.848.5620.2043.6765.3597.78146.31218.93
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -11.98-22.66-27.92-17.37-16.76-71.66-107.23-160.45-240.08-359.25
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 57.56
Beta 1.070
Diluted Shares Outstanding 153.76
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 0.15
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.53%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.695
Total Debt 2,029.04
Total Equity 8,850.20
Total Capital 10,879.23
Debt Weighting 18.65
Equity Weighting 81.35
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 259.99399.25586.07835.421,300.201,945.552,911.204,356.156,518.309,753.60
EBITDA -107.68-102.44-165.50-156.67-649.90-638.34-955.17-1,429.27-2,138.67-3,200.18
EBIT -114.68-110.44-183.31-193.53-757.51-717.82-1,074.10-1,607.22-2,404.95-3,598.63
Tax Rate 0.28%0.01%0.67%-0.05%0.15%0.21%0.21%0.21%0.21%0.21%
EBIAT -114.36-110.43-182.08-193.63-756.37-716.29-1,071.81-1,603.79-2,399.83-3,590.96
Depreciation 7817.8236.86107.6179.48118.93177.96266.28398.45
Accounts Receivable --39.68-38.19-64.70-202.69-66.37-230.24-344.52-515.52-771.39
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable -7.65-13.384.7211.6523.4721.6832.4348.5372.62
Capital Expenditure -11.98-22.66-27.92-17.37-16.76-71.66-107.23-160.45-240.08-359.25
UFCF -119.34-157.12-243.75-234.12-856.56-751.36-1,268.67-1,898.37-2,840.61-4,250.52
WACC
PV UFCF -696.22-1,089.30-1,510.34-2,094.13-2,903.57
SUM PV UFCF -8,293.56

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.92
Free cash flow (t + 1) -4,335.53
Terminal Value -73,235.37
Present Value of Terminal Value -50,027.78

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -58,321.34
Net Debt 1,768.90
Equity Value -60,090.25
Shares Outstanding 153.76
Equity Value Per Share -390.82