Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Nort... (OMAB)

$73.74

-0.45 (-0.61%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 2,358.37 | 73.74 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	7,129.83	7,907.05	8,527.10	5,367.47	8,720.01	9,682.46	10,751.15	11,937.78	13,255.39	14,718.43
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	3,592.66	4,650.53	5,383.28	2,344.70	4,833.35	5,256.56	5,836.74	6,480.96	7,196.28	7,990.56
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	3,293.47	4,298.78	4,968.03	1,909.36	4,346.12	4,729.58	5,251.60	5,831.24	6,474.85	7,189.49
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	299.19	351.74	415.25	435.34	487.23	526.98	585.14	649.72	721.44	801.06
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Total Cash	2,382.34	2,978.56	3,429.87	2,958.80	5,987.16	4,552.53	5,055.01	5,612.94	6,232.46	6,920.35
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	760.96	809.23	1,053.52	1,376.01	1,584.77	1,492.50	1,657.23	1,840.14	2,043.25	2,268.76
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	207.19	155.90	140.81	107.51	213.21	212.57	236.03	262.08	291.01	323.13
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-221.77	-211.23	-57.10	-157.99	-1,925.89	-609.63	-676.91	-751.63	-834.58	-926.70
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 73.74
Beta	0.893
Diluted Shares Outstanding	48.79
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	25.51
After-tax Cost of Debt	4.86%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	7.747
Total Debt	7,921.36
Total Equity	3,597.72
Total Capital	11,519.08
Debt Weighting	68.77
Equity Weighting	31.23
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	7,129.83	7,907.05	8,527.10	5,367.47	8,720.01	9,682.46	10,751.15	11,937.78	13,255.39	14,718.43
EBITDA	3,592.66	4,650.53	5,383.28	2,344.70	4,833.35	5,256.56	5,836.74	6,480.96	7,196.28	7,990.56
EBIT	3,293.47	4,298.78	4,968.03	1,909.36	4,346.12	4,729.58	5,251.60	5,831.24	6,474.85	7,189.49
Tax Rate	27.89%	28.45%	30.00%	26.67%	25.51%	27.70%	27.70%	27.70%	27.70%	27.70%
EBIAT	2,374.88	3,075.93	3,477.66	1,400.13	3,237.39	3,419.32	3,796.72	4,215.77	4,681.08	5,197.74
Depreciation	299.19	351.74	415.25	435.34	487.23	526.98	585.14	649.72	721.44	801.06
Accounts Receivable	-	-48.27	-244.29	-322.48	-208.76	92.27	-164.73	-182.91	-203.10	-225.52
Inventories	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Accounts Payable	-	-51.29	-15.10	-33.30	105.70	-0.64	23.46	26.05	28.93	32.12
Capital Expenditure	-221.77	-211.23	-57.10	-157.99	-1,925.89	-609.63	-676.91	-751.63	-834.58	-926.70
UFCF	2,452.30	3,116.89	3,576.42	1,321.70	1,695.67	3,428.30	3,563.67	3,957.01	4,393.75	4,878.71
WACC
PV UFCF						3,241.58	3,186.07	3,345.05	3,511.96	3,687.21
SUM PV UFCF										16,971.87

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	5.76
Free cash flow (t + 1)	4,976.28
Terminal Value	132,347.89
Present Value of Terminal Value	100,025.29

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	116,997.16
Net Debt	1,934.19
Equity Value	115,062.97
Shares Outstanding	48.79
Equity Value Per Share	2,358.37