Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Nort... (OMAB)

$73.74

-0.45 (-0.61%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 2,358.37 | 73.74 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 7,129.837,907.058,527.105,367.478,720.019,682.4610,751.1511,937.7813,255.3914,718.43
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 3,592.664,650.535,383.282,344.704,833.355,256.565,836.746,480.967,196.287,990.56
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 3,293.474,298.784,968.031,909.364,346.124,729.585,251.605,831.246,474.857,189.49
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 299.19351.74415.25435.34487.23526.98585.14649.72721.44801.06
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 2,382.342,978.563,429.872,958.805,987.164,552.535,055.015,612.946,232.466,920.35
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 760.96809.231,053.521,376.011,584.771,492.501,657.231,840.142,043.252,268.76
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 207.19155.90140.81107.51213.21212.57236.03262.08291.01323.13
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -221.77-211.23-57.10-157.99-1,925.89-609.63-676.91-751.63-834.58-926.70
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 73.74
Beta 0.893
Diluted Shares Outstanding 48.79
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 25.51
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.86%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.747
Total Debt 7,921.36
Total Equity 3,597.72
Total Capital 11,519.08
Debt Weighting 68.77
Equity Weighting 31.23
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 7,129.837,907.058,527.105,367.478,720.019,682.4610,751.1511,937.7813,255.3914,718.43
EBITDA 3,592.664,650.535,383.282,344.704,833.355,256.565,836.746,480.967,196.287,990.56
EBIT 3,293.474,298.784,968.031,909.364,346.124,729.585,251.605,831.246,474.857,189.49
Tax Rate 27.89%28.45%30.00%26.67%25.51%27.70%27.70%27.70%27.70%27.70%
EBIAT 2,374.883,075.933,477.661,400.133,237.393,419.323,796.724,215.774,681.085,197.74
Depreciation 299.19351.74415.25435.34487.23526.98585.14649.72721.44801.06
Accounts Receivable --48.27-244.29-322.48-208.7692.27-164.73-182.91-203.10-225.52
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable --51.29-15.10-33.30105.70-0.6423.4626.0528.9332.12
Capital Expenditure -221.77-211.23-57.10-157.99-1,925.89-609.63-676.91-751.63-834.58-926.70
UFCF 2,452.303,116.893,576.421,321.701,695.673,428.303,563.673,957.014,393.754,878.71
WACC
PV UFCF 3,241.583,186.073,345.053,511.963,687.21
SUM PV UFCF 16,971.87

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.76
Free cash flow (t + 1) 4,976.28
Terminal Value 132,347.89
Present Value of Terminal Value 100,025.29

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 116,997.16
Net Debt 1,934.19
Equity Value 115,062.97
Shares Outstanding 48.79
Equity Value Per Share 2,358.37