Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Orosur Mining Inc. (OMI.TO)
$0.25
-0.01 (-5.66%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Projected | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 44.23 | 37.10 | 31.12 | 26.11 | 21.90 | 18.37 | 15.41 | 12.93 | 10.85 | 9.10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 9.32 | -18.09 | -1.18 | -1.46 | -1.53 | -1.62 | -1.36 | -1.14 | -0.96 | -0.80 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 2.18 | -26.99 | -7.43 | -6.70 | -5.92 | -5.31 | -4.45 | -3.73 | -3.13 | -2.63 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 7.14 | 8.90 | 6.25 | 5.24 | 4.40 | 3.69 | 3.09 | 2.59 | 2.18 | 1.83 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 3.36 | 1.40 | 0.51 | 0.78 | 6.96 | 1.76 | 1.47 | 1.24 | 1.04 | 0.87 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 1.24 | 1.35 | 0.28 | 0.04 | 0.12 | 0.29 | 0.25 | 0.21 | 0.17 | 0.15 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 13.16 | 6.10 | 7.19 | 6.03 | 5.06 | 4.24 | 3.56 | 2.99 | 2.50 | 2.10 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 10.75 | 11.87 | 0.23 | 0.31 | 0.40 | 2.21 | 1.85 | 1.55 | 1.30 | 1.09 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -13.22 | -14.89 | -0.43 | -0.55 | -0.06 | -2.71 | -2.28 | -1.91 | -1.60 | -1.34 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 0.25 |
|---|---|
| Beta | -1.315 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 153.38 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | -9.99 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 5.00% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | -2.737 |
| Total Debt | - |
| Total Equity | 38.34 |
| Total Capital | 38.34 |
| Debt Weighting | 0.00 |
| Equity Weighting | 100.00 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Projected | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 44.23 | 37.10 | 31.12 | 26.11 | 21.90 | 18.37 | 15.41 | 12.93 | 10.85 | 9.10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 9.32 | -18.09 | -1.18 | -1.46 | -1.53 | -1.62 | -1.36 | -1.14 | -0.96 | -0.80 |
| EBIT | 2.18 | -26.99 | -7.43 | -6.70 | -5.92 | -5.31 | -4.45 | -3.73 | -3.13 | -2.63 |
| Tax Rate | -27.47% | -11.48% | 0.00% | 0.00% | -9.99% | -9.79% | -9.79% | -9.79% | -9.79% | -9.79% |
| EBIAT | 2.77 | -30.09 | -7.43 | -6.70 | -6.51 | -5.83 | -4.89 | -4.10 | -3.44 | -2.88 |
| Depreciation | 7.14 | 8.90 | 6.25 | 5.24 | 4.40 | 3.69 | 3.09 | 2.59 | 2.18 | 1.83 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -0.10 | 1.06 | 0.25 | -0.09 | -0.17 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Inventories | - | 7.06 | -1.09 | 1.16 | 0.97 | 0.82 | 0.68 | 0.57 | 0.48 | 0.40 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 1.12 | -11.64 | 0.08 | 0.09 | 1.80 | -0.36 | -0.30 | -0.25 | -0.21 |
| Capital Expenditure | -13.22 | -14.89 | -0.43 | -0.55 | -0.06 | -2.71 | -2.28 | -1.91 | -1.60 | -1.34 |
| UFCF | -3.31 | -28 | -13.27 | -0.53 | -1.20 | -2.40 | -3.69 | -3.10 | -2.60 | -2.18 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -12.55 | -0.52 | -1.20 | -2.47 | -3.90 | -3.37 | -2.90 | -2.50 | ||
| SUM PV UFCF | -15.15 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | -2.74 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -2.22 |
| Terminal Value | 46.91 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 53.90 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 38.75 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -6.96 |
| Equity Value | 45.71 |
| Shares Outstanding | 153.38 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 0.30 |