Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
OneWater Marine Inc. (ONEW)
$31.57
-0.06 (-0.19%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 602.80 | 767.62 | 1,022.97 | 1,228.21 | 1,744.82 | 2,280.19 | 2,979.81 | 3,894.11 | 5,088.94 | 6,650.38 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 12.17 | 54.30 | 44.69 | 117.18 | 207.62 | 159.17 | 208 | 271.83 | 355.23 | 464.23 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 10.49 | 51.62 | 41.44 | 111.77 | 191.33 | 148.58 | 194.17 | 253.75 | 331.61 | 433.35 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 1.68 | 2.68 | 3.25 | 5.41 | 16.30 | 10.59 | 13.83 | 18.08 | 23.62 | 30.87 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 15.35 | 11.11 | 66.09 | 62.61 | 42.07 | 81.91 | 107.04 | 139.89 | 182.81 | 238.90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 10.89 | 15.29 | 18.48 | 28.53 | 57.96 | 51.30 | 67.04 | 87.62 | 114.50 | 149.63 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 184.36 | 277.34 | 150.12 | 143.88 | 372.96 | 522.06 | 682.25 | 891.58 | 1,165.15 | 1,522.65 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 6.34 | 5.55 | 12.78 | 18.11 | 27.31 | 27.65 | 36.14 | 47.22 | 61.71 | 80.65 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -10.13 | -7.29 | -6.31 | -9.90 | -11.40 | -21.47 | -28.05 | -36.66 | -47.91 | -62.61 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 31.57 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 2.442 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 14.34 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 33.14 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 1.43% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 15.043 |
| Total Debt | 835.02 |
| Total Equity | 452.62 |
| Total Capital | 1,287.64 |
| Debt Weighting | 64.85 |
| Equity Weighting | 35.15 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 602.80 | 767.62 | 1,022.97 | 1,228.21 | 1,744.82 | 2,280.19 | 2,979.81 | 3,894.11 | 5,088.94 | 6,650.38 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 12.17 | 54.30 | 44.69 | 117.18 | 207.62 | 159.17 | 208 | 271.83 | 355.23 | 464.23 |
| EBIT | 10.49 | 51.62 | 41.44 | 111.77 | 191.33 | 148.58 | 194.17 | 253.75 | 331.61 | 433.35 |
| Tax Rate | 42.64% | 4.31% | 68.22% | 44.41% | 33.14% | 38.54% | 38.54% | 38.54% | 38.54% | 38.54% |
| EBIAT | 6.02 | 49.40 | 13.17 | 62.13 | 127.93 | 91.31 | 119.33 | 155.95 | 203.79 | 266.33 |
| Depreciation | 1.68 | 2.68 | 3.25 | 5.41 | 16.30 | 10.59 | 13.83 | 18.08 | 23.62 | 30.87 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -4.41 | -3.18 | -10.05 | -29.43 | 6.66 | -15.74 | -20.57 | -26.88 | -35.13 |
| Inventories | - | -92.98 | 127.21 | 6.24 | -229.08 | -149.11 | -160.18 | -209.33 | -273.56 | -357.50 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -0.79 | 7.23 | 5.33 | 9.19 | 0.35 | 8.48 | 11.09 | 14.49 | 18.94 |
| Capital Expenditure | -10.13 | -7.29 | -6.31 | -9.90 | -11.40 | -21.47 | -28.05 | -36.66 | -47.91 | -62.61 |
| UFCF | -2.43 | -53.39 | 141.37 | 59.18 | -116.50 | -61.67 | -62.33 | -81.45 | -106.45 | -139.11 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -58.06 | -55.24 | -67.97 | -83.62 | -102.88 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -367.77 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 6.22 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -141.89 |
| Terminal Value | -3,362.33 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -2,486.62 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -2,854.39 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 792.95 |
| Equity Value | -3,647.34 |
| Shares Outstanding | 14.34 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -254.40 |